
法国央行行长埃马纽埃尔穆林表示,中东危机的地缘政治冲击正在影响所有经济体,甚至那些财政更为强劲的国家。作为欧洲中央银行执政理事会成员之一的他指出,通货膨胀对全球债券收益率的影响,但回避了对自己国家面临困难的直接提及。
Bank of France Governor Emmanuel Moulin said that the geopolitical shock of the Middle East crisis is hitting all economies, even those with stronger public finances. A member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, he cited the impact of inflation on global bond yields while skirting any immediate reference to the troubles faced by his own country.
“我们看到石油、美国长期利率和欧洲利率之间存在着强烈的相关性,”他在土耳其伊斯坦布尔表示。“这种利率上升影响所有国家,无论其财政状况如何。事实上,一些财政状况非常强劲的国家也受到影响,就像那些财政状况较弱的国家一样。”穆林在法国政府因通过预算和缩窄庞大的赤字而面临投资者质疑的一个月份发表了上述讲话,这引发了人们对欧元区债务危机的回忆。当天早些时候,法国财政部长罗兰勒苏尔坚称该国没有问题出售其债券。
“We see that there is a strong correlation between oil, long-term interest rates in the US, and interest rates in Europe,” he said on Thursday in Istanbul. “This increase in interest rates affects all countries, whatever is their fiscal position. Actually some countries with very strong fiscal positions are affected, as countries with weaker fiscal positions.”Moulin spoke in a month when France has been in the sights of investors over its struggles to pass a budget and narrow its bloated deficit in turbulence that sparked memories of the euro-zone debt crisis. Earlier on Thursday, Finance Minister Roland Lescure insisted that the country has no problem selling its bonds.
“我们看到的是,这次地缘政治冲击也在传导为金融冲击,这我认为是需要牢记的一个重要观点,”穆林说。“利率上升已影响金融状况。”他还指出,由石油和天然气冲击驱动的消费者价格增长在很大程度上仅限于该类别。
“What we see is that this geopolitical shock is also transmitting into a financial shock, and this is, I think, an important point to keep in mind,” Moulin said. “Financial conditions have been impacted by the increase in interest rates.”He also observed that consumer-price growth driven by the oil and gas shock hasn’t spread much beyond that category.
“这显然是100%能源,”穆林说。“我们看到间接影响非常有限,我们看到目前的影响非常小,并且我们没有看到二轮效应。”在同一场活动上,他的荷兰 counterparts奥拉夫斯雷普滕也表达了类似观点,补充说尽管能源冲击“相当持久”,但 households 的通货膨胀预期仍然得到良好的锚定。
“It’s clearly 100% energy,” Moulin said. “We see very little indirect effect. We see very small impact at this stage, and we don’t see second-round effects.”Speaking at the same event, his Dutch counterpart, Olaf Sleijpen, echoed that observation, adding that while the energy shock is “quite persistent,” households’ inflation expectations are well anchored.