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法国世界报

债务:“法国不是希腊,重蹈2010年代的覆辙对所有人来说都将代价高昂”Debt: 'France is not Greece, and repeating the mistakes of the 2010s would be costly for everyone'

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席卷全球债券市场的风暴很大程度上源于美国政策的鲁莽。通过挑战传统同盟并破坏既定的全球贸易秩序,唐纳德·特朗普推动了许多西方政府承担更多债务,以应对这一新的地缘政治格局。

The storm that has swept over global bond markets owes much to the recklessness of US policies. By challenging traditional alliances and destabilizing the established global trading order, Donald Trump has pushed many Western governments to take on more debt to cope with this new geopolitical landscape.

与此同时,通过让美国预算赤字失控,总统迫使财政部继续以巨大规模借款,即使科技巨头们也在进行一场疯狂的竞赛,以史无前例的速度借款。

At the same time, by letting the US budget deficit spiral, the president has forced the Treasury to continue borrowing on a massive scale, even as tech giants, engaged in a frenzied race, are also borrowing at unprecedented rates.

其结果是全球利率面临上行压力。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁效应进一步加剧了这一趋势——这是美国和以色列于2月28日对伊朗发动的鲁莽军事“远征”的后果。各地央行被迫提高基准利率,以防止燃油价格上涨导致持续通胀。

The result is upward pressure on interest rates worldwide. This is exacerbated by the effects of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a consequence of a rash military "excursion" [initiated by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28]. Everywhere, central banks are being forced to raise their key rates to prevent rising fuel prices from leading to sustained inflation.

对法国而言,特朗普引发的风暴正以最坏的时机袭来:如今已有两年,法国政府失去了对其预算平衡的控制,且在2027年夏季之前情况好转的希望渺茫。即将举行的总统和立法选举结果的不确定性正在推高法国的利率,尤其是考虑到法国在财政事务上的信誉储备本来就十分薄弱。在过去30年里,从未有任何政府兑现其财政紧缩承诺。

For France, the storm unleashed by Trump is hitting at the worst possible moment: For two years now, the French government has lost control of its budget balance, and there is little chance things will improve before summer 2027. Uncertainty over the outcome of upcoming presidential and legislative elections is pushing French rates even higher, especially as France's stock of credibility on budget matters is, to say the least, weak. Not once in 30 years has any government delivered on its fiscal consolidation promises.

因此,法国政府的借款利率成为欧元区最高也就不足为奇了。当风暴来袭时,没有掌舵人的船只面临最大的风险!加强合作然而更令人惊讶的是,法国的欧洲伙伴国竟保持一片沉默。有些国家理所当然地因看到法国因长期缺乏财政纪律而遭到市场惩罚而感到些许得意。但它们可别高兴得太早。首先,如今利率水平与德国产生偏离的已不只有法国:比利时、意大利和西班牙也明显出现了同样的趋势。

It is hardly surprising, then, that the rates at which the French government borrows are the highest in the eurozone. When a storm hits, ships with no one at the helm are at the greatest risk! Closer cooperation What is more surprising, however, is the deafening silence from France's European partners. Some have taken a certain satisfaction, quite naturally, in seeing France finally punished by the markets for its persistent lack of discipline. They would be wrong to celebrate for long. First, France's rates are no longer the only ones diverging ever more from those of Germany: Belgium, Italy and Spain are now clearly following suit.