法国债券收益率已飙升至21世纪初以来的最高水平，威胁要搅动全球金融市场。投资者和策略师告诉CNBC，这可能会推动美国国债价格上涨。9月份，法国10年期国债收益率跃升70个基点，并于10月初达到4.9937%——这是自2002年7月10日以来的最高水平。本月，投资者为持有法国债务而非德国债务所要求的风险溢价也达到了超过150个基点——这是近15年来最大的利差。
French bond yields have surged to their highest levels since the early 2000s, threatening to roil global financial markets. That could set up U.S. Treasurys for a boost, investors and strategists told CNBC. The yield on the 10-year French note jumped 70 basis points in September and reached 4.9937% in early October — its highest level since July 10, 2002. The risk premium demanded by investors to hold French debt over its German counterpart also reached more than 150 basis points this month — its widest spread in nearly 15 years.
这些动向与2010年代欧洲债务危机期间的债券市场活动如出一辙。如今，这种影响可能蔓延至欧元区其他地区，进而促使全球投资者转向美国国债。The Milken Institute首席经济学家William Lee周四在CNBC的《Morning Call》节目中表示：“欧洲正在给美国国债市场相当大的助力，因为法国正在发生的一切向市场表明，各国政府将无法弥补其财政赤字。”
The moves echo activity in the bond market during the European debt crisis in the 2010s. Now, contagion could spread to other areas of the euro zone, which could lead global investors to turn to U.S. Treasurys. Europe is giving "the U.S. Treasury market quite a bit of a hand because, what's going on in France, it's demonstrating to markets that governments are just not going to be able to close their deficits," William Lee, chief economist at The Milken Institute, told CNBC's " Morning Call " on Thursday.
因此，许多全球投资者正在转向美国国债，而不是欧洲债务。由于市场对法国国债的担忧加剧，其借贷成本已大幅上升。这些担忧源于减税政策、与伊朗战争相关的能源成本飙升以及经济增长停滞等因素。法国的年度预算赤字预计将占国内生产总值的5.4%，远高于欧盟设定的3%上限。法国各地接连爆发的学生抗议活动也对该国控制公共债务的能力提出了质疑。
"So a lot of global investors are coming to U.S. Treasurys" as opposed to European debt. Fiscal, political risks French borrowing costs have jumped amid concerns over its national debt, which has swelled due to tax cuts, spikes in energy costs linked to the Iran war and stagnating economic growth. In France, the budget deficit is on track to make up 5.4% of the country's gross domestic product on an annual basis. That's well above the 3% limit set by the European Union. A string of student protests across France has also cast doubt on the country's ability to rein in its public debt.
近几周来，抗议者与警方发生冲突，要求政府增加对公立学校的投入，而这些学校长期面临师资短缺和基础设施老化问题。Eurizon Capital SGR首席投资官Alessandro Solina告诉CNBC：“财政和政治风险仍然是法国债务成本上升的主要驱动因素。”
Protesters in recent weeks have clashed with police to demand their government increase investments in public schools, which have long suffered from staff shortages and infrastructural decay. "Fiscal and political risk remains the main driver" behind French debt becoming more expensive, Eurizon Capital SGR CIO Alessandro Solina told CNBC.
财政保守派议员在法国同样处于少数派地位，因此缺乏通过预算削减措施所需的权力，他补充道。该国原定于明年4月举行的总统选举可能会进一步加剧市场的担忧。索利纳表示，这种不确定性氛围不仅引发了法国债券的大规模抛售，也给其他欧元区的债券带来了压力。德国和荷兰债券的收益率上个月达到了自2011年以来的最高水平。
Fiscally conservative lawmakers are also in the minority in France and thus lack the necessary power to pass budget cuts, he added. A presidential election in the country slated for next April could further contribute to market jitters. That climate of uncertainty has spurred an exodus from French bonds, in addition to putting pressure other euro zone bonds, per Solina. Yields on German and Dutch bonds last month hit their highest levels since 2011.
截至10月8日，德国联邦债券的收益率徘徊在3.5%左右，而荷兰10年期债券的收益率则约为3.6%。同期限的意大利债券收益率接近4.7%，较一年前上升了约114个基点。“我们需要关注这些动态，以及它们可能如何蔓延到其他资产，”安联全球投资者保险与监管策略首席投资官马蒂厄·德·克莱尔蒙特告诉CNBC。这位策略师表示，随着对信用风险的担忧动摇该地区的信心，美国国债可能成为一种避险资产。
As of Oct. 8, the Bund yield was hovering around 3.5%, while that of the Dutch 10-year note stood at roughly 3.6%. The Italian bond with the same duration stood at nearly 4.7%, up about 114 basis points from a year earlier. "We need to pay attention to those developments and the way it could spill over to other assets," Matthieu de Clermont, CIO insurance and regulatory strategies at Allianz Global Investors, told CNBC. As concerns over credit risks shake confidence in the region, U.S. Treasurys could serve as a sort of safe haven, the strategist said.
他指出，美国相对强劲的经济实力以及一贯偿还债务的良好声誉都是支撑因素。美国债券的回报率也比许多欧洲同类债券更具吸引力，美国10年期和30年期国债的收益率分别超过5.2%和5.6%。今年美国国债的供应也大幅上升。US10Y YTD mountain 美国2026年10年期国债收益率 根据金融机构非营利行业协会——证券业与金融市场协会的数据，截至9月，美国在2026年已发行了24.6万亿美元的国债，同比增长超过10%。
He pointed to the country's relative economic strength and reputation for consistently repaying its debt. American bonds also offer even more attractive returns than many of their European equivalents, with the yields on the 10- and 30-year U.S. Treasurys sitting at more than 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively. Supply of U.S. Treasurys has also soared this year. US10Y YTD mountain U.S. 10-year yield in 2026 The U.S. has issued $24.6 trillion worth of Treasurys in 2026 through September, up more than 10% on a year-over-year basis, according to data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, a non-profit trade association for financial institutions.
“美国没有足够的储蓄来消化所有这些债券，”麦格理全球外汇与利率策略师蒂埃里·维兹曼告诉CNBC。“这确实是一个供需问题……供应实在太多了。” 把握债券收益率的波动 围绕宏观经济事件进行投资可能会面临挑战。
"There's not enough savings in the U.S. to absorb all those bonds," Macquarie global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman told CNBC. "It's really a supply and demand issue. ... There's just too much to absorb." Playing the moves in bond yields Investing around macroeconomic events can pose challenges.
然而，投资者仍有机会在此市场中获得一定收益，尤其是如果他们愿意保持耐心并长期持有资产，施瓦布金融研究中心固定收益研究与策略主管库珀·霍华德表示。“我们认为，美国债券相比欧洲债券提供了更多机会。”施瓦布金融研究中心固定收益研究与策略主管库珀·霍华德说道。“其中一个原因很简单：如果你比较美国综合债券指数（通常被视为美国市场的代表）与美国全球债券指数之间的收益率差异……这一差异大约有200个基点，对美国市场有利。”
However, there are opportunities for investors to get some gains in this market, particularly if they are willing to be patient and hold assets for longer, said Cooper Howard, director of fixed-income research and strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research. "We think that there's more of an opportunity with U.S. bonds rather than Euro bonds," said Cooper Howard, director of fixed-income research and strategy at Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Just one of the reasons for that is, if you look at the yield differentials between the U.S. aggregate bond index, which is kind of a common proxy for the U.S. market, and the U.S. global bond index … that's about 200 basis points in favor of the U.S." However, Howard also recommends investors also allocate some funds to international bonds to diversify their portfolios.
不过，霍华德也建议投资者将部分资金配置到国际债券中，以实现投资组合的多样化。投资者可以通过像先锋全球总债券ETF（BNDW）这样的基金来接触全球债券市场。该基金的费用仅为0.05%，但今年迄今已下跌4%。根据欧里尊资本SGR的索利纳的观点，银行也可能从债券收益率的上升中受益。但他警告称，这种潜在利好及其对银行股的影响远非板上钉钉。
One way investors can achieve exposure to bonds around the world is through an ETF such as the Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW) . The fund charges just 0.05% in fees. However, it's down 4% this year. Banks could also be beneficiaries of the move higher in bond yields, per Solina of Eurizon Capital SGR. But he cautioned that any potential boost to those institutions and their stocks is far from guaranteed.
“银行可能会因净利息收入增加而受益，但这种潜在优势可能被债券持仓的市价重估亏损、更高的融资成本以及信用质量的恶化所抵消，”索利纳表示。事实上，Invesco KBW银行ETF（KBWB）在过去一个月下跌了9%，2026年至今仅上涨3%。该领域的巨头如美国银行、高盛和摩根士丹利在过去一个月中跌幅均超过12%。这位高管还补充说，“房地产、高杠杆基础设施以及长期成长股是受收益率进一步上升影响最大的板块之一。”——CNBC的迪娜·扎伊迪和尼克·威尔斯参与了报道
"Banks may benefit from higher net interest income, although this potential advantage can be offset by mark-to-market losses on bond holdings, higher funding costs and deteriorating credit quality," Solina said. Indeed, the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) is down 9% over the past month and is up just 3% in 2026. Giants in the space such as Bank of America , Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are down more than 12% over the past month. The executive added that "real estate, highly leveraged infrastructure and long-duration growth stocks are among the segments most exposed to further yield increases." — CNBC's Deena Zaidi and Nick Wells contributed reporting