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若民主党拿下众议院,乔丹可能成为下一任共和党领袖Jordan emerges as potential next GOP leader if Dems seize House

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众议院司法委员会主席、俄亥俄州共和党人吉姆·乔丹于2025年5月20日在华盛顿特区与其他众议院共和党领袖举行新闻发布会时发表讲话。(Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, speaks at a press conference with other members of House Republican leadership in Washington, D.C., on May 20, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

唐纳德·特朗普总统在国会中最著名的盟友之一,可能很快将成为他在民主党主导的一系列调查和弹劾威胁面前最高级别的捍卫者。

One of President Donald Trump’s most prominent allies in Congress could soon become his highest-ranking defender against a barrage of Democrat-led investigations and impeachment threats.

多位众议院共和党人告诉福克斯新闻数字频道,他们预计到了11月,众议院将脱离他们的控制——随之而来的是其高层领导层的大规模变动。

Several House Republicans told Fox News Digital they expect the chamber will slide out of their control come November — and with it, a major shakeup in their top leadership ranks.

“我想不到一种所有人都能保住职位的情况,”一位众议院共和党议员直言不讳地告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。“我认为[议长迈克·约翰逊,路易斯安那州共和党人]会是第一个被替换的人,然后[众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利塞,路易斯安那州共和党人]必须决定是否要竞选领袖职位,以及他能否击败[众议院司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹,俄亥俄州共和党人]?”在福克斯新闻数字频道与多位众议院共和党人的讨论中,乔丹的名字被频繁提及。这些共和党人在谈论党内事务时均要求匿名。

"I don’t see a scenario where everyone gets to keep their job," one House GOP lawmaker bluntly told Fox News Digital. "I think [Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.] would be first out, and then [House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La.] has got to decide if he’s going to run for leader and, can he beat [House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio]?" Jordan’s name was one that came up often in Fox News Digital’s discussions with various House Republicans, all of whom spoke under the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conference matters.

若民主党掌控多数席位,众议院民主党人计划发起针对特朗普的调查攻势 另一位众议院共和党人表示,在讨论共和党少数派领袖人选时,乔丹是“头号人选”。

HOUSE DEMS PLOT TRUMP INVESTIGATION BLITZ IF THEY SEIZE MAJORITY A second House Republican said Jordan is the "number one name" in talks of a GOP minority leader.

保守派共和党人发起数百万美元中期选举攻势,对抗民主党的“社会主义”反叛 这位来自俄亥俄州的共和党人在党内基层中本就享有极高的知名度。正如第一位议员所说:“他的名人地位非常有利……当吉姆·乔丹来为你助选时,你能让300人到场支持。”在本届选举周期中,这种地位已得到了充分展现。乔丹在8月和10月的大部分时间都在全国各地奔走,为众议院各派系的共和党同僚助选,从处境岌岌可危的温和派到保守的“让美国再次伟大”运动追随者,无一例外。

HOUSE CONSERVATIVES UNLEASH MULTIMILLION-DOLLAR MIDTERM BLITZ AGAINST DEM 'SOCIALIST' INSURGENCY The Ohio Republican already enjoys high name recognition among the party base. As the first lawmaker put it, "His celebrity status is very helpful … when Jim Jordan comes to town for you, you put 300 butts in seats." That status has been on full display so far this election cycle. Jordan has spent much of August and October traveling across the country campaigning for fellow House Republicans along the political spectrum, from vulnerable moderates to conservative MAGA acolytes.

这与2023年10月竞选议长时的乔丹判若两人。当时,前议长凯文·麦卡锡被罢免,引发了一场史无前例的议长更替争夺战。乔丹当时的竞选行动获得了保守派的大力支持,但也遭到了温和派成员的激烈反对,其中数人表示,他们因反对乔丹而遭到其盟友的威胁。

It’s a far cry from the Jordan who ran for speaker in October 2023, when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ouster sparked a historic scramble to replace him. Jordan’s bid at the time was marked by fervent conservative support and fierce opposition from moderates, several of whom said they felt threatened by Jordan’s allies for their opposition.

众议院共和党人中的第一位人士将乔丹目前的表现形容为“吉姆·乔丹2.0版”。

The first House Republican described his current persona as "Jim Jordan 2.0."

“我认为,他已采取措施,将支持他的人远远扩展到了‘自由派议员团’之外,”这位人士说。“他简直就是党内一位杰出的成员。”但自2023年的那场争斗以来,乔丹本人并未公开表达任何领导职位的野心。当时,经过数周的政治混乱,约翰逊最终当选议长。第二位众议院共和党人表示,他们注意到乔丹曾主动否认过任何相关讨论。

"He's taken steps to, I think, build out way beyond the Freedom Caucus in terms of people that support him," that person said. "Like, he’s just a great citizen of the conference." But Jordan himself has not publicly pushed any leadership ambitions since the 2023 battle, when Johnson ended up speaker after several weeks of political chaos. The second House Republican said they’ve seen Jordan actively dismiss any such conversations.

本周早些时候,他告诉Punchbowl News,自己“专注于赢得”众议院多数席位。

He told Punchbowl News earlier this week that he was "focused on winning" the House majority.

第一位人士说:“我认为[乔丹]在并未公开竞选的情况下,已经悄然建立了一定的支持基础。此外,他本可以针对党内领导层发起攻击,但他并没有这样做。他只是想帮助我们赢得选举。”第三位众议院共和党人指出,如果民主党在下一轮“蓝色浪潮”中赢得众议院,那么2023年时乔丹最激烈的反对者中许多人将失去席位。而且,与需要众议院全体议员过半数支持的议长选举不同,少数党领袖只需赢得共和党党内多数支持即可。

The first person said, "I think [Jordan] quietly, without campaigning for it, has built up some infrastructure like that. But also, he could be throwing darts at leadership, and he's not. He's just trying to help us win." A third House Republican pointed out that, if Democrats win the House in another blue wave, many of Jordan’s most vocal opponents from 2023 will have lost their seats. And unlike a speaker race, where a majority of the full House is needed, a minority leader would only need to win a majority of the GOP conference.

众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯于2025年11月12日在华盛顿特区前往众议院会议厅,就一项为政府提供资金的临时拨款决议进行投票。(Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)House Majority Leader Steve Scalise heads to the House chamber ahead of a vote on a continuing resolution to fund the government in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 12, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“如果我们失去20到30名那样的议员,而剩下的都是像我这样的人,我认为吉姆·乔丹的机会会大得多。因为党内剩下的都将是保守派,”这位第三位共和党议员说,并补充称他们会“1000%”支持乔丹。福克斯新闻权力榜:对于民主党来说,事情究竟可能出在何处?

"If we lose 20 or 30 of those guys and all you’re left are guys like me, I think Jim Jordan's chances are much higher. Because the only people left in the conference are going to be conservative," the third GOP lawmaker said, adding they would "1,000%" back Jordan. FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?

但潜在的少数党领袖职位对乔丹来说,绝不会没有竞争。众议院共和党人私下里大多预计,斯卡利兹——约翰逊的二号人物,也是自2014年以来一直担任众议院共和党领导层成员的人——会竞选这一职位。

But a potential minority leader Jordan would not come without a fight. Most House Republicans are privately expecting Scalise, Johnson’s No. 2 and a member of House GOP leadership since 2014, to run for the job.

“很明显,他们两人都在为这个职位展开角逐,”一位第四位众议院共和党人告诉福克斯新闻数字频道。“乔丹对很多人来说很有吸引力。我认为他或许有机会。但也有很多人对史蒂夫非常忠诚,尤其是那些在党内待了很长时间的人。”

"It’s very obvious they’re both jockeying for it," a fourth House Republican told Fox News Digital. "Jordan’s a pretty big draw for a lot of folks. I think he might have a play there. But there’s a lot of people who are loyal to Steve, especially those that have been around a while."

第五位共和党议员表示:“我猜目前斯卡利兹可能处于领先位置,而乔丹则紧随其后。”这位第五位人士还提出:“我认为这最终取决于人们会把谁视为对抗民主党人的更有力斗士?”

A fifth GOP lawmaker said, "I would guess, at this point, that Scalise would be in the lead with Jordan running a close second." "And I think it would just depend on, you know, who would people see as a better fighter against the Democrats?" the fifth person posed.

第六位与斯卡利兹结盟的众议院共和党人表示,如果共和党失去多数席位,路易斯安那州共和党人斯卡利兹与乔丹之间的竞争似乎已不可避免,并认为斯卡利兹的决定将基于谁更有能力在多数席位回归后继续领导党团。

A sixth House Republican allied with Scalise said a fight between the Louisiana Republican and Jordan seemed on the horizon if Republicans lost, and argued his decision would be based on who is best positioned to continue leading if that majority comes back.

“从某些方面来看,我认为吉姆·乔丹会是一位相当出色的少数党领袖,因为他像斗牛犬一样坚韧……[但]我从未相信吉姆·乔丹能成为一名有效的议长,”这位第六位人士说。“我认为史蒂夫·斯卡利兹可能是我们目前最好的候选人,他既有与政府打交道的经验,也理解我们议程中那些必须通过的关键部分……而且他还是我们最出色的谈判者。”

"In some respects, Jim Jordan, I think, would make a pretty good minority leader because he's a bulldog … [but] I've never believed that Jim Jordan would be an effective speaker," that sixth person said. "I think Steve Scalise probably is the best candidate that we have out there that has experience in dealing with the administration, that understands the must-pass portion of our agenda … and is our best negotiator."

考虑到在麦卡锡被罢免后,两人曾为议长职位展开激烈竞争,彼此之间早已积怨颇深,这场争斗很可能异常激烈。在闭门投票中,斯卡利兹曾以多数票击败乔丹,但最终仍未能赢得众议院全体议员所需的多数支持。

It would likely be a bruising battle, given there’s no love lost between the two men after their competing bids for speaker after McCarthy’s ouster. Scalise had won a majority of Republicans in a head-to-head against Jordan behind closed doors but failed to clinch the necessary majority on the House floor.

约翰逊为特朗普立下大功,但共和党微弱多数派内部的挫败感却日益加剧。然而,事情是否真会发展到那一步,目前尚不清楚。

JOHNSON DELIVERS BIG FOR TRUMP, BUT FRUSTRATION GROWS ACROSS RAZOR-THIN GOP MAJORITY But it’s not clear if it may even come to that. "I think that if Johnson runs for minority leader, he would still get the votes," the fifth person said.

众议院多数党党鞭、明尼苏达州共和党人汤姆·埃默于2025年10月28日在华盛顿特区与共和党研究委员会成员及其他众议院共和党领袖举行新闻发布会时发表讲话。(Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., speaks during a press conference with members of the Republican Study Committee and other members of House Republican leadership, in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“我认为如果约翰逊参选少数党领袖,他仍然会获得足够的支持票,”第五位人士说道。“他做了一名领袖所能做的一切。他筹集了资金,四处奔走,在过去两年里成功凝聚了原本被认为不可能获得的艰难选票。”此外,也存在另一种可能性:共和党人打破预期,成功守住众议院多数席位。在这种情况下,约翰逊几乎可以肯定将继续掌权。

"He's done everything you could ask of a leader. He's raised the money, he's been on the road. He's cobbled together very difficult votes over the last two years that no one thought possible." There is also a world where Republicans defy expectations to keep the House. And in that world, Johnson is all but guaranteed to remain in charge. "Speaker Mike Johnson is an example of the American Dream.

“议长迈克·约翰逊是美国梦的典范。作为议长,他在众议院仅以微弱多数优势的情况下,依然不断挑战逆境,推动通过‘美国优先’法案,”特朗普竞选团队在X上发文称。“11月共和党获胜后,他们应该迅速再次选举迈克担任议长!”然而,如果民调结果准确,大多数人预计约翰逊会主动退位。

“我不认为他在担任众议院议长之后,还会愿意成为少数党领袖——这对我来说完全不合逻辑,”第四位共和党众议员说道。

As Speaker, he's continued to defy the odds with a slim House majority and pass America First-bills," Trump’s campaign posted on X. "After Republicans win in November, they should re-elect Mike as Speaker quickly!" If the polls prove correct, however, most people are expecting Johnson to willingly step aside. "I don't think he's going to want to be minority leader after being the Speaker of the House, like, that doesn't make any sense to me," the fourth House Republican said.

第三位共和党议员则更为直接:“约翰逊已经完了。”约翰逊本人在上个月接受福克斯新闻数字频道采访时,也否认了任何有关领导层竞选的讨论。

The third GOP lawmaker was more blunt: "Johnson’s done." Johnson himself dismissed any talk of leadership races in an interview with Fox News Digital last month.

当被问及是否会竞选少数党领袖时,他表示:“我真的完全没有考虑过这件事,因为我们正全神贯注于当前目标。这次中期选举与以往任何一次都不同,我坚信我们将打破历史规律,保住并扩大这一多数席位优势。”如果约翰逊的预测未能实现,预计领导层中有一位成员将很有机会接替他的位置:众议院多数党鞭汤姆·埃默(共和党,明尼苏达州)。

"I really haven't given it a moment's thought because we're laser focused," he said when asked if he would seek to be minority leader. "This is a midterm unlike any other, and I'm convinced we are going to defy history and keep and grow this majority." If Johnson’s prediction does not pan out, one member of leadership is expected to have a good shot at staying in his place: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.

众议院议长、路易斯安那州共和党人迈克·约翰逊在华盛顿特区国会山举行的新闻发布会上发表讲话,右侧的众议院多数党党鞭、明尼苏达州共和党人汤姆·埃默在侧聆听。(Mariam Zuhaib/AP)House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks as House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., right, listens during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. (Mariam Zuhaib/AP)

多位人士向福克斯新闻数字频道透露,埃默私下里一直告诉共和党众议员,无论发生什么,他都打算再次竞选党鞭职位,从而避免可能与乔丹和斯卡利斯的直接冲突。

Emmer has been privately telling House Republicans that he intends to run for the whip job again no matter what, multiple people told Fox News Digital, avoiding a possible collision course with Jordan and Scalise.

“我认为这步棋非常明智,他说:‘你知道吗?我除了努力保住自己的位置之外,不会做任何其他事,’”第一位众议院共和党议员说道。“我认为汤姆获得了相当广泛的尊重,而大多数人担忧的是:‘我不得不在汤姆和吉姆之间做出选择。’”第五位受访者表示:“据我了解,如果真有竞争,埃默尔会乐于接受第二名的位置。”但在目前这种环境下,一切都不确定——多位众议院共和党人已经表示,他们预计中期选举将是一场“血流成河”的惨烈对决。

"I think it was a brilliant move, saying, ‘You know what? I'm not going to do anything but try to keep my own spot,’" the first House GOP lawmaker said. "I think Tom's got pretty wide respect, and most of the handwringing from people was, ‘I don't want to have to pick between Tom and Jim.’" The fifth person said, "It's my understanding that Emmer is, if there is a race, going to be happy being the No. 2." But nothing is a sure thing in an environment where multiple House Republicans have said they are expecting a "bloodbath" in the midterms.

三位共和党议员告诉福克斯新闻数字频道,他们预计民主党将赢得20到25个席位——而共和党重新划分选区的努力,至少让他们避免了更惨重的失败。

Three GOP lawmakers told Fox News Digital they expect Democrats to win between 20 and 25 seats — with Republicans’ redistricting efforts sparing them from an even more devastating loss.

多位众议院共和党人警告称,如果遭遇惨败,民众可能会要求彻底更换领导层。

A solid defeat, several House Republicans warned, could have people clamoring for a full leadership shakeup.

第二位众议院共和党人表示,在这种情况下,整个领导团队都可能被“彻底清除”。

The second House Republican said the entire leadership team could be "wiped out" in that situation.

“在我看来,不太可能所有人都能接受现状,”第一位受访者说道。

"It strikes me that there wouldn’t be a high likelihood of everybody just being OK with the status quo," the first person said.

在这种情况下,还有一个名字被视作可能随时准备挑战领导职位的人选:共和党研究委员会主席奥古斯都·普弗勒(共和党,得克萨斯州)。

In that case, there is another name people see waiting in the wings for a potential leadership bid: Republican Study Committee Chairman August Pfluger, R-Texas.

“我不断听到相关传闻,但还没有直接听到他本人表态,”第七位众议院共和党人说道。“我猜测他正在为可能出现的机遇做准备,但目前采取的是策略性的沉默。”第二位众议院共和党人则表示,他们听到这个名字的频率仅次于乔丹。

"I keep hearing rumors but have not heard that directly," a seventh House Republican said. "My guess is that he is preparing to make a run in case the opportunity presents itself, but he’s being tactically quiet." The second House Republican said they heard his name second only to Jordan in terms of frequency.

共和党研究委员会主席、德克萨斯州联邦众议员奥古斯特·普夫格于2025年10月28日在华盛顿特区与共和党研究委员会其他成员以及众议院共和党领袖举行新闻发布会时发表讲话。(Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)Republican Study Committee Chairman Congressman August Pfluger, R-Texas, speaks during a press conference with other members of the Republican Study Committee as well as members of House Republican leadership in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28, 2025. (Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“当我还是候选人时,我根本不知道他是谁,但他给我打了电话,还向我的竞选活动捐款,”第一位议员说道。“他非常有野心,但我不知道他的野心具体指向什么。”多人推测,如果埃默尔选择或被迫退选,他可能会竞选第二职位——党鞭。

"When I was a candidate, I had no idea who he was, but he called me and gave money to my campaign," the first lawmaker said. "He’s very ambitious, but I don’t know what he’s aiming those ambitions towards." Several people speculated that he could run for the No. 2 job as whip if Emmer opted to step aside or was forced to.

众议院第四位共和党议员表示,他们能想象这样一种情况:普弗勒竞选众议院共和党竞选机构——全国共和党国会委员会(NRCC)的主席一职。

The fourth House Republican said they could see a world where Pfluger runs to be chairman of the House GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).

“我认为他为自己争取到了一个非常有利的位置,能够担任某种领导职务。具体会是什么形式,这还取决于实际情况,”这位议员说道。

"I think that he's positioned himself very well to be able to be in some sort of leadership position. I think it just depends on what that looks like," that person said.

但有一件事,共和党议员们似乎基本达成一致:11月的选举前景不容乐观。

But there is one thing Republican lawmakers seem to largely agree on: November is not looking good.

“我在全国各地交谈过的所有人都看到了和我一样的数据。所以,如果你的选区支持率低于R+6,我认为你就面临风险,”第三位众议院共和党议员说道。第一位议员则表示:“似乎很多人已经开始感到恐慌了。”

"Everyone that I have talked to across the country is seeing the same numbers that I'm seeing. So if you're in anything less than an R+6, I think you're at risk," the third House Republican said. The first person said, "There seems to be a lot of panic buttons being pushed."