乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基指责俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京命令其将领无视战争规则，加大对平民目标及核能设施的攻击力度。
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of ordering his generals to abandon the rules of war and step up attacks on civilian targets and nuclear energy sites.
“他（普京）称现在已没有任何规则可循。”这听起来很像“总体战”的概念——即在使用武器、作战区域、参战人员以及作战目标方面均不受任何限制，完全漠视战争法。
“He [Putin] said there are no rules now.”That sounds a lot like the concept of total war — unrestricted in terms of the weapons used, the territory or combatants involved and the objectives pursued, in total disregard of the laws of war.
这种做法完全无视战争法，直接以本应受到保护的平民及设施为攻击目标。普京所谓的“现在没有规则”恰恰就是战争罪的定义。这等于是俄罗斯在宣称：“我不在乎规则，你们尽管来阻止我吧。”美国与北约必须明确：何种程度的行为才算不可容忍？遗憾的是，答案似乎只有在情况变得令其难以承受时才会显现——比如当战火逼近某个欧洲国家的首都时。
This is a complete disregard for the law of war — directly targeting civilians and facilities granted protected status. Putin’s “no rules now” is the very definition of a war crime. It is Russia saying, “I don’t care — just try to stop me.”The U.S. and NATO need to determine when this becomes intolerable. Unfortunately, the answer appears to be only when it becomes inconvenient — like when it arrives on the doorsteps of a European capital.
由于担心招致报复，各国都不愿直接对抗俄罗斯的侵略行径，唯有乌克兰例外。显然，尽管俄罗斯是拥有否决权的联合国安理会常任理事国，但1949年《日内瓦公约》及其1977年附加议定书所规定的武装冲突法在俄罗斯已不再适用。
No one wants to stand up directly to Russian aggression for fear of the response — except for Ukraine. Apparently, the law of armed conflict, the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and the additional protocols established in 1977 no longer apply in Russia, even though it is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council with veto power.
德国总理弗里德里希·默茨逐渐认清了这一点。上周末访问基辅期间，他呼吁普京停止“野蛮的攻击行为”，结束这场他所称的“毫无意义的战争”。这一点特朗普总统至今尚未做到。
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is starting to get it. Last weekend during his visit to Kyiv, he called upon Putin to stop his “barbaric attacks” and end what he called a “senseless war.”That is something President Trump has yet to do.
默茨警告称：“如果任由俄罗斯肆意妄为，它迟早会将战争机器对准我们。”随后他承诺提供15亿美元用于军事与能源援助，还将追加96亿美元用于乌克兰的国防合作、武器生产、采购及联合项目——具体包括能够对抗俄罗斯喷气式无人机的拦截无人机，以及远程武器系统的扩产计划。
Merz warned that “If Russia is not stopped, it will turn its war machine against us sooner or later.”He then pledged $1.5 billion in military and energy assistance and committed another $9.6 billion on defense cooperation, production, procurement and joint projects in Ukraine — namely, interceptor drones capable of countering Russian jet-powered drones and expanding production of long-range weapons systems.
近五年来，莫斯科持续轰炸居民区、学校、医院、市场、教堂、文化中心、民用交通网络以及重要的能源基础设施。俄军还对战俘和平民实施酷刑与杀戮，制造环境灾难，试图掩盖乱葬岗中的暴行，甚至使用白磷弹、氯气等违禁武器。
For nearly five years, Moscow has been bombing residential neighborhoods, schools, hospitals, markets, churches, cultural centers, civilian transportation networks, and critical energy infrastructure. Russians have tortured and killed prisoners of war and civilians, created environmental disasters, attempted to cover-up atrocities in mass graves, and used white phosphorus munitions, chlorine gas, and more.
从一开始，克里姆林宫就奉行“毫无规则可循”的作战方式。这便是俄罗斯的战争模式，而西方早已将其视为常态。如今唯一的变化是，普京公开承认自己拥有这种“无规则行事”的特权。若将莫斯科在乌克兰的所作所为套用到世界其他任何冲突中，那无疑就是种族灭绝。
The Kremlin has been playing by “no rules” since day one. It is the Russian way of war and has been normalized by the West. The only difference now is that Putin is acknowledging his ‘no rules’ mandate. Apply Moscow’s actions in Ukraine to any other conflict in the world, and it would be called what it is — genocide. Even so, only one warrant for the arrest of Putin has been issued by the International Criminal Court.
即便如此，国际刑事法院也仅对普京发出过一份逮捕令，理由是“非法驱逐人口（儿童）以及将儿童从乌克兰被占地区转移至俄罗斯联邦”。然而2025年8月，特朗普却在阿拉斯加州安克雷奇接待了这名被起诉的战争罪犯，并邀请他参加今年12月在迈阿密举行的二十国集团领导人峰会。其目的无非是“让俄罗斯重新融入全球经济”，并“为美国争取到涉及俄罗斯石油、柴油、稀土矿及其他大宗商品的有利交易”。承认俄罗斯的暴行显然不合时宜——那样就不得不采取行动了。
It was for the “unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.”Yet Trump hosted the indicted war criminal in Anchorage, Alaska in August 2025 for a summit. He has now invited him to the G20 Leaders Summit in Miami this December. His purpose? To “reintegrate Russia into the global economy” and “create a path for the U.S. to sign lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals, and other commodities.”To acknowledge what Russia is doing would be inconvenient.
普京不断向特朗普灌输这样一种观念：阻碍战争结束的正是乌克兰，而非发动侵略的俄罗斯。乌克兰因抵抗入侵才成了“罪魁祸首”。普京的逻辑是：唯有乌克兰屈服于莫斯科的极端要求，和平才能实现。
It would require doing something about it. Increasingly, Putin has convinced Trump that Ukraine is the impediment to ending the war. Not Russia, which started the war by invading, but Ukraine for resisting the invasion. Putin’s message: Peace can only be achieved when Ukraine submits to Moscow’s maximalist demands.
特朗普对克里姆林宫犯下的战争罪行视而不见，比起追究普京的责任，他似乎更热衷于与俄罗斯达成涉及石油、柴油、稀土矿及其他大宗商品的有利交易。
Trump has ignored the Kremlin’s war crimes and appears more focused on the potential of lucrative deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals, and other commodities with Russia than he is with holding Putin accountable.
直到现在，俄罗斯那种“毫无规则可循”的行径才逐渐从乌克兰蔓延至整个欧洲，演变为一场全面的混合战争。克里姆林宫如今已将战争手段用于对付黑海地区的商业航运。周一，一架俄罗斯无人机袭击并击沉了一艘在罗马尼亚专属经济区内航行的土耳其籍商船。该船当时正载着谷物，从乌克兰的伊兹梅尔港出发。
Only now, Russia’s “no rules” campaign is extending beyond Ukraine to an active hybrid war campaign throughout Europe. The Kremlin has now turned its war machine against commercial shipping in the Black Sea region. On Monday, a Russian drone attacked and sank a Turkish-owned commercial vessel in Romania’s exclusive economic zone. The vessel was carrying grain and had departed Ukraine’s port of Izmail.
周二，保加利亚总理鲁门·拉德夫称，有两艘商船在保加利亚专属经济区内遭到海上及空中无人机袭击——这些无人机极有可能来自俄罗斯。其中一艘船当时正运载着来自乌克兰的小麦。拉德夫指出：“当前事态严重扰乱了黑海地区的航运秩序，导致保险费用进一步上涨，使得航运活动变得极其艰难。”保加利亚、罗马尼亚和土耳其均为北约成员国。
On Tuesday, Bulgarian prime minister Rumen Radev said that two commercial vessels were struck by sea and aerial drones — likely Russian — in an attack on shipping in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. One of the two vessels was carrying wheat from Ukraine. Radev stated that “What is happening is seriously disrupting shipping in the Black Sea, driving up insurance costs even further and making shipping extremely difficult.”Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey are all NATO countries.
这便是俄罗斯为遏制欧洲对乌克兰的支持而实施的恐吓与威慑手段。
This is Russia, continuing to exert its will in a campaign of intimidation against European support to Ukraine.
默茨曾表示：“若不对俄罗斯加以遏制，它必将把战争机器对准我们。”剧透一下：俄罗斯其实早已这么做了。
Merz said that “if Russia is not stopped, it will turn its war machine against us.”Spoiler alert: It already has. Col. (Ret.)
乔纳森·斯威特上校（退役）曾担任军事情报官员30年，并于2012年至2014年间领导美国欧洲司令部情报联络处。马克·托斯则专注于撰写有关国家安全与外交政策的文章。两人同为INTREP360的联合创始人，也共同运营着Substack平台上的《INTREP360情报报告》。
Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer and led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. They are the cofounders of INTREP360 and the INTREP360 Intelligence Report on Substack.