纽约，10月8日——今年秋季，美元汇率飙升至18个月以来的高点，而近期上涨的主要动力来自大西洋彼岸的不确定性，这促使一些投资者押注美元将进一步升值。
NEW YORK, Oct 8 - The US dollar has surged to an 18-month high this fall, with the latest gains driven by uncertainty across the Atlantic that is emboldening some investors to bet on further dollar appreciation.
分析师表示，美元持续获得美国高利率（且可能继续上升）、强劲的经济增长以及持续存在的通胀风险的支撑。然而，欧洲面临的挑战——尤其是法国巨额财政赤字以及更广泛的经济压力可能蔓延至意大利乃至整个欧盟的可能性——正逐渐成为未来几个月美元走势的关键驱动因素。
欢迎 ，了解欧洲及全球市场当日的动态。
Analysts said the dollar continues to draw support from high - and likely rising - US interest rates, resilient economic growth and persistent inflation risks. Yet Europe's challenges, centering on large deficits in France and the prospect of broader stress rippling to Italy and across the bloc, are emerging as a likely driver of dollar performance in coming months.
今年，美元对欧元已升值约5%，这也有助于推动美元指数（.DXY）上升。该指数用于衡量美元对六种主要货币的汇率强度，其中欧元是占比最大的货币。
The greenback has appreciated about 5% against the euro this year, helping to lift the dollar index (.DXY), which measures its strength against six major currencies, including the euro, its largest component.
“欧元持续承压，这限制了美元的主要替代选择之一，”Mesirow Currency Management公司的高级投资策略师Uto Shinohara表示。
"The euro remains under pressure, limiting one of the dollar’s main alternatives," said Uto Shinohara, senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management.
上周，法国与德国10年期国债收益率利差出现了数十年来最大的单周跳升，而意大利与德国之间的收益率利差也创下自新冠疫情以来最陡峭的单周增幅。欧元兑美元汇率最新下跌0.67%，报1.1183。
The spread between French and German 10-year bond yields posted its biggest weekly jump in decades last week, while the Italian-German yield gap saw its steepest weekly increase since the COVID-19 pandemic. The euro was last down 0.67% against the dollar at 1.1183.
“市场高度关注那些因政治失能而无法使财政轨迹回归可持续水平的国家，”位于多伦多的Corpay公司首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta表示。一个担忧是，欧洲央行鹰派信号对欧元的支撑作用已不再明显。
"(There's) a lot of focus on those countries where there's political dysfunction preventing the return of fiscal trajectories to anything that could be considered sustainable," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. One concern is that the euro is no longer drawing much support from hawkish signals from the European Central Bank.
欧洲央行9月份将利率上调25个基点，这是该行今年第二次出手抑制能源引发的通胀上升。然而，在决策公布后，欧元反而下跌，因为市场担忧未来加息可能对经济造成冲击。
The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points in September, the second time this year that the central bank moved to quell an energy-driven rise in inflation, but the euro fell after the decision as markets worried about the economic impact of future hikes.
欧洲收益率通常支撑欧元，但其反应平淡表明投资者日益关注增长和财政风险。能源价格上涨可能进一步加大压力。
Higher European yields have typically supported the euro, but its muted response suggests investors are increasingly focused on growth and fiscal risks. Rising energy prices could add further pressure.
“从结构上看，欧洲是能源主要进口国，且比美国更依赖制造业。影响显而易见：高能源价格将拖累该地区，”宏观研究与策略公司Macro Hive的研究员本杰明·福特说。
"Structurally, Europe is a major energy importer and more reliant on manufacturing than the US. The impact is clear: high energy prices will hold the region back," said Benjamin Ford, researcher at macro research and strategy firm Macro Hive.
福特预计欧元将在下个月跌至1.10美元，约比当前水平低2%。
Ford expects the euro to fall to $1.10 within the next month, nearly 2% below its current level.
“美国的中期论点更为强劲，而欧洲则更容易成为冲击的接受方，”福特说。
"The US appears to have a stronger medium-term thesis whereas Europe is prone to being on the receiving end of shocks," Ford said.
政策失误 投资者也在权衡欧洲央行是否能够继续抗通胀，而不对已经出现压力迹象的经济造成更大损害。欧元区通胀在九月大幅超出预期，且随着能源成本飙升，未来几个月可能进一步上升，这给欧洲央行加息施加了压力。
POLICY ERROR Investors are also weighing whether the ECB can continue fighting inflation without inflicting greater damage on an economy already showing signs of strain. Euro zone inflation surged more than expected in September and is likely to increase further in the coming months on soaring energy costs, keeping pressure on the ECB to raise rates.
“欧元可能的走势极度偏向下行，”花旗纽约G10外汇策略主管丹·托邦说。“而最容易导致这种情况的，就是欧洲央行在已经无法承受的市场上过度紧缩的政策失误。”衡量期权交易员是为对冲欧元亏损还是收益而支付更多费用的一个月欧元风险逆转指标，周五达到自三月以来最悲观的水平，而三个月指标则触及自2024年六月以来的最负面水平。
"The asymmetry around where the euro can go is very much skewed to the downside," said Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX strategy at Citi in New York. "And one place that that could come from most easily is from a policy error by the ECB over-tightening into a market that can't withstand it anymore." One-month euro risk reversals, which measure whether options traders are paying more to hedge against euro losses than gains, were on Friday at their most bearish since March, while the three-month measure hit its most negative level since June 2024.
美联储官员已表明通胀风险仍然偏高，这帮助将美国国债收益率维持在多年高位。
Fed policymakers have signaled that inflation risks remain elevated, helping to keep Treasury yields at multiyear highs.
“收益率继续上升，美国利率相对于大多数发达市场拥有绝对的利差优势，”筿原说。
"Yields continue to climb, with US rates at an absolute spread advantage to most developed markets," Shinohara said.
联邦基金期货显示，到十二月之前至少还有一次25个基点的加息概率约为84%。
Fed funds futures are showing an about 84% chance for at least one more rate hike of 25 basis points by December.
虽然鲜有策略师预测美元将从当前水平大幅飙升，但他们表示，美国增长韧性强劲、收益率居高不下以及欧洲特有风险的组合，继续使天平向有利于美元的方向倾斜。“就目前而言，这种倾斜对欧洲非常不利，”花旗的托邦表示。
While few strategists are forecasting a dramatic surge in the dollar from current levels, they say the combination of resilient US growth, elevated yields and Europe-specific risks continues to tilt the balance in the dollar's favor. "As of right now, this skew is very much looking ugly for Europe," said Citi's Tobon.