21个欧盟成员国共用的货币在该地区金融和政治不确定性加剧的背景下，继续对美元贬值。
The common currency of the 21 EU member states continues to depreciate against the US dollar amid mounting financial and political uncertainty in the bloc.
由于法国财政纪律恶化、政治危机以及持续的街头抗议，再加上西班牙提前举行选举和意大利的债务脆弱性，欧元区对2012年债务危机重演的担忧再次被点燃。
Concerns have reignited in the eurozone over fears of a repeat of the 2012 debt crisis, driven by France’s deepening fiscal indiscipline, political crisis and ongoing street protests, alongside Spain’s snap elections and Italy’s debt vulnerability.
中东危机持续推高能源成本，加剧全球债券市场波动；而持续的通胀已使欧元作为中期趋势的贬值压力得以巩固。
The Middle East crisis continues to drive up energy costs, adding to volatility in the global bond market, while persistent inflation has cemented the downward pressure on the euro’s value as a medium-term trend.
欧元/美元汇率自测试1月高点1.21以来一直呈逐步下降趋势。在持续发展的背景下，汇率跌至1.11，为2025年5月以来的最低水平。
The euro/US dollar exchange rate has been on a gradual downward trend since testing its January high of 1.21. The exchange rate dropped to 1.11 amid ongoing developments, hitting its lowest level since May 2025.
欧元今年已贬值约5%，尽管在最近几个月基本未受债券市场波动影响，但该货币如今成为金融世界持续脆弱性的焦点。欧元区第二大经济体法国的发展正在推动欧元贬值。
The euro has depreciated by around 5% this year, and the currency has now come under the spotlight as a sign of persistent fragility in the financial world despite having been largely unaffected by bond market volatility in recent months. Developments in France, the second-largest economy in the eurozone, have been driving the euro’s depreciation.
法国10年期国债收益率升至2002年以来的最高水平，接近5%，在地缘政治风险推动下引发全球债券抛售。
France’s 10-year bond yield hit its highest level since 2002, nearing 5% amid geopolitical risks and leading to global bond sell-offs.
根据法国国家统计和经济研究所（INSEE）和巴黎的数据，法国整体公共预算赤字扩大至国内生产总值（GDP）的5.8%，超过了欧盟3%的红线。
France’s overall public budget deficit widened to 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP), exceeding the EU’s 3% threshold, according to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and Paris.
该国自1974年以来未曾实现预算盈余，而名义增长率已降至借贷利率以下，使国家进一步陷入结构性债务。
The country has failed to post a budget surplus since 1974, while nominal growth rates have dropped below borrowing rates, dragging the country further into structural debt.
法国名义债务总额达到历史最高的3.6万亿欧元（4万亿美元），占GDP的119%，超过了马斯特里赫特标准的60%。
France’s total nominal debt stock hit a historic €3.6 trillion ($4 trillion), accounting for 119% of GDP and exceeding the 60% Maastricht criterion.
法国与德国的借贷成本利差扩大至2012年重大债务危机以来的最大水平。
The spread between French and German borrowing costs reached its widest level since the major debt crisis of 2012.
与此同时，欧元区的不确定性并未局限于法国，西班牙的危机也有所贡献。
Meanwhile, uncertainty in the eurozone has not been limited to France, as the crisis in Spain has also contributed.
西班牙的住房市场政策在总理佩德罗·桑切斯决定于十一月提前举行选举后，为欧盟第四大经济体带来了政治风险。
Spain’s housing market policies brought political risks to the EU’s fourth-largest economy after Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez decided to call snap elections in November.
另一方面，美国尽管历史性债务负担已超过40万亿美元，并因即将到来的中期选举而难以保持支出纪律，却未面临全球性后果。在中东紧张局势之际，全球资本继续涌向美元作为避险资产。
The US, on the other hand, is not facing global repercussions despite its historic debt burden exceeding $40 trillion and its inability to maintain spending discipline due to upcoming midterm elections. Global capital continues to flock to the US dollar as a safe haven amid tensions in the Middle East.
分析人士表示，汇率波动直接源于法国局势导致的欧元走弱，而欧元区各国金融市场的碎片化结构使该地区在共享同一货币的情况下仍易受此类冲击。欧洲央行的货币政策操作空间正受到金融和政治动荡的限制。
Analysts say movements in the exchange rate stem directly from the euro’s weakness caused by developments in France, while the fragmented structure of national financial markets in the eurozone leaves the region vulnerable to such shocks despite sharing a common currency. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) room for monetary policy maneuver is being limited by the financial and political turmoil.
此前预计该行明年将加息三次，但由于该地区经济放缓和债务风险，加之信心受挫以及美欧利率差距扩大，预期已转为两次25个基点的加息。
The bank had been expected to hike rates three times next year, but these expectations have shifted to two 25-basis-point rate hikes due to the economic slowdown in the region and debt risks, alongside the loss of confidence and the widening interest rate gap between the US and Europe.
分析人士称，只要结构性问题未得到解决，政治紧张局势持续，欧元的抛售压力仍将持续。
Selling pressure on the euro is expected to persist as long as structural problems remain unresolved and political tensions continue, analysts say.
虽然分析人士认为新债务危机并非必然，法国也不会被逼至破产，但他们认为在当前条件下，欧元不太可能对美元走强。
While analysts think a new debt crisis is not inevitable and that France will not be driven into bankruptcy, they believe the euro is highly unlikely to strengthen against the US dollar under current conditions.
ING德国分公司的首席经济学家卡斯滕·布热斯基（Carsten Brzeski）最近表示，法国日益严重的政治动荡反映了威胁该地区经济稳定的一些结构性问题。他指出，自2020年以来，法国已经更换了六任总理，并呼吁欧盟委员会（European Commission）和欧洲中央银行（ECB）对法国政府采取行动；因为在过去二十年里，法国政府仅两次将预算赤字控制在3%以下。
Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, recently said the deepening political turmoil in France reflects structural problems threatening the economic stability of the bloc. He noted that the country had already changed prime ministers six times since 2020 and urged the European Commission and the ECB to take action against Paris, as the government had managed to bring the budget deficit below the 3% goal only twice in the past two decades.
布热斯基还指出，政治上的不稳定和不确定性将对法国经济造成负面影响，导致该国经济陷入停滞。
He added that political instability and uncertainty would take a toll on the economy and push France toward stagnation.
ING全球市场研究部门负责人克里斯·特纳（Chris Turner）认为，由于美联储（Fed）的鹰派立场以及债券收益率的上升，欧元对美元的汇率在未来两个季度内将继续维持在1.10至1.15的区间内。他同时表示，如果法国议会能够通过财政整顿计划，欧元的进一步贬值势头可以得到遏制；而美国中期选举后的政策走向将决定欧元汇率的未来走势。
Chris Turner, head of global markets research at ING, said the euro/US dollar exchange rate would continue to be capped within the 1.10-1.15 range over the next two quarters due to the Fed’s hawkish stance and rising bond yields. He added that further losses in the euro could be prevented by a fiscal consolidation program adopted by the French parliament, while the White House’s strategies after the midterm elections would determine the exchange rate’s direction.