在2026年中期选举中，可负担性被视为选民的首要议题之一。而燃气价格——消费者受压最严重的项目之一——预计将在选举日前保持高位。
Affordability is seen as one of voters' top issues heading into the 2026 midterm elections. And gas prices — one of the items where consumers are getting squeezed the most — are expected to remain elevated through Election Day.
预测市场平台Kalshi的投机者给出87%的概率，认为全国平均燃气价格在11月3日将保持在每加仑4美元以上。
Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi give an 87% chance that the AAA national average for gas prices will remain above $4 per gallon on Nov. 3.
虽然他们预计价格会保持在该水平之上，但他们认为价格有可能从当前水平回落，认为选举日平均价格超过4.25美元的概率仅为42%。截至星期四，全国平均价格目前为每加仑4.36美元。
But while they expect them to stay above that mark, they do think there's a chance they'll come down from the levels where they currently are, giving just a 42% chance the average is above $4.25 on Election Day. As of Thursday, the national average is currently at $4.36 per gallon.
燃气价格在5月下旬达到每加仑4.56美元的峰值，此前在美国与伊朗战争爆发以及伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡——中东石油出口的重要通道——后，3月出现首次飙升。
Gas prices peaked at an average of $4.56 per gallon in late May, following an initial spike in March after the start of the U.S.-Iran war and the latter country's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for oil exports from the Middle East.
随后在7月初跌至每加仑3.79美元的低点，随后在整个夏季再次上升。柴油价格在9月创下新高，9月22日接近每加仑6.53美元。
They then fell to as low as $3.79 per gallon in early July before rising again throughout the rest of the summer. Diesel prices hit new peaks in September, though, reaching almost $6.53 per gallon on Sept. 22.
此后价格降至6.28美元，Kalshi的交易员仍给出68%的概率，认为该数字在11月3日仍将高于每加仑6美元。
Prices have since fallen to $6.28, though traders on Kalshi place 68% odds that figure remains above $6 per gallon on Nov. 3.
柴油价格上涨对农业产业较大的州，如爱荷华州和堪萨斯州，以及依赖柴油发电的阿拉斯加州影响尤为显著。这三个州在今年11月的美国参议院竞争激烈。随着燃气价格保持高位，民主党翻转参议院的机会有所提升。
Rising diesel prices have particular impact in states with larger agriculture industries, like Iowa and Kansas, and states like Alaska who rely on diesel fuel for electricity. All three are home to competitive races for the U.S. Senate this November. As gas prices have remained elevated, Democrats' chances for flipping the Senate have improved.
Kalshi的交易员给出该党以63%的概率从共和党手中夺取上议院。
Traders on Kalshi give the party 63% odds of taking the upper chamber from Republican control.
披露：CNBC与Kalshi之间存在包括客户获取和少数股权投资在内的商业关系。
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.