Auto Workers President Shawn Fain is poised to defeat challenger Rich Boyer and win reelection as leader of the powerful union for another four years, according to people familiar with the matter.

Although votes are still being counted, Fain has a large enough lead that it would be difficult, if not impossible, for another candidate to overtake him, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to discuss the information. Fain’s primary challenger in the at-times bruising campaign was Boyer, the UAW’s international vice president.

Most of Fain’s slate of allied candidates are also expected to win, the people said. Ballot counting began on Tuesday, a process overseen by a federal monitor put in place in 2021 following a corruption scandal that sent two ex-presidents to prison along with other union officials on embezzlement convictions.

The result won’t be official until vote counting concludes. Election results are expected as early as Friday but could be announced by the monitor over the weekend.

If Fain prevails, he will begin a second term as the UAW’s leader and start bargaining with Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co. and Stellantis NV before the current labor deal expires in 2028.

That may not be welcome news for the automakers. In 2023, Fain garnered a reputation as a hard-line labor leader when he ran a more than six-week rolling strike at all three companies.

Fain is known for his bombastic style, throwing contract offers from automakers in the trash can on public webcasts. His tactic of playing each company’s offers against the others — rather than settling with one and using that deal as a pattern — also angered auto executives. In the end, Fain won an agreement that brought in wages increases of more than 30% for workers.

This time around, the union will be looking for job security guarantees in the face of artificial intelligence and automation coming into vehicle assembly plants, and healthcare benefits for retirees.

The race for president has been particularly contentious. Fain demoted Boyer in 2024, prompting the monitor to probe whether Fain pushed the vice president to try to secure benefits for his fiancee and her sister. That inquiry led to an investigation by the Department of Justice into that allegation and whether Fain abused the powers of his office by taking duties away from Boyer and union Treasurer-Secretary Margaret Mock. Fain has denied the allegations.

He also led aggressive organizing campaigns at foreign automakers. The UAW succeeded in organizing a Volkswagen AG plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2024, but failed at a Mercedes-Benz factory in Alabama that same year.

Fain raised the union’s profile in Washington by refusing to endorse political candidates until they gave the union assurances on key issues. That pushed former President Joe Biden to join union workers on the picket line. The union election will also name officers for several vice president positions.