根据彭博新闻的报道，中国政府最近推出的新一轮房地产刺激措施在传统上销售火爆的假期期间对房地产市场的影响较为有限，这引发了人们对这些措施能否有效提振低迷市场的担忧。
China’s latest round of stimulus for the housing sector had only a modest impact on sales in the traditionally busy holiday season, raising concerns about how much the measures will boost the sagging market.
研究机构 Proptech Innovations 监测了 25 个主要城市的销售数据后发现，本届全国假日期间的新房销售额比去年同期增长了 15%。不过，按地区划分来看，销售额较 2024 年同期下降了 9%——2024 年时政府推出了更为有力的刺激措施，导致房地产市场出现短暂的热潮。
New-home sales rose 15% from a year early during this week’s National Day celebrations, according to data tracking 25 major cities by research firm Proptech Innovations. The sales by area were down 9% from the same holiday season in 2024, when a stronger package led to a burst of activity.
二手房市场的表现也类似：根据 China Index Holdings 的数据，当天的二手房销售额比 2024 年同期下降了 21%。
The existing home sales market showed a similar trend. Daily sales were 21% below the same holiday in 2024, according to China Index Holdings.
Proptech 的分析师在周四发布的报告中指出：“购房者的兴趣确实有所回升，但尚未转化为强劲的销售增长。一些因素限制了短期内销售量的回升幅度，其中包括最新政策的覆盖范围相对有限。”此次销售量的小幅回升，是在上个月政府实施抵押贷款补贴政策之后发生的。这些补贴旨在减轻低收入家庭（包括新进城居民、应届毕业生和普通工人）的财务负担。要符合贷款优惠条件，所购房屋的面积必须不超过 120 平方米（1,292 平方英尺），且价格不得超过 150 万元人民币（22.4 万美元）。
“The buyer interest is certainly back, but it hasn’t translated into robust sales yet,” Proptech analysts said in a report Thursday. “A couple of factors, including the relatively limited scope of the latest policy, restrict how much the sales can bounce back in the short term.”The modest recovery follows last month’s national mortgage subsidies, which are aimed at reducing the financial burden on lower-income households, including new urban residents, recent graduates and rank-and-file workers. To qualify for the loan breaks, homes must be 120 square meters (1,292 square feet) or smaller and priced at 1.5 million yuan ($224,000) or less.
法国兴业银行大中华区经济学家 Michelle Lam 在周三的报告中写道：“这样的政策并不能从根本上改变房地产市场的走势，尤其是在二线城市。”为实现 4.5% 至 5% 的年度经济增长目标，中国政府采取了有针对性的措施。房地产刺激政策的范围之所以有限，是因为政策制定者希望在不过度扩大财政支出的前提下稳定经济——毕竟当前的经济增长趋势与官方目标之间的差距其实并不大。
“Such design isn’t exactly a game changer,” Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA, wrote in a Wednesday report. “We don’t expect it to materially alter the trajectory of the ongoing housing market correction, particularly in lower-tier cities.”China has adopted a targeted approach as it rolls out more aggressive steps to meet its annual economic growth target of 4.5%-5%. The limited scope of the housing package reflects policymakers’ desire to stabilize the economy without resorting to a broad fiscal expansion, since the difference between recent growth trends and the official target is rather small.
在那些将受益于抵押贷款补贴的小城市中，房地产市场的销售情况呈现出明显的分化：据中国指数控股有限公司（China Index Holdings）的数据，在位于粤港澳大湾区的惠州（这座房价较为亲民的城市，正致力于将周边11个城市整合成一个大型都市圈）（1），新房销售量比去年同期增长了42%；而在以鞋厂为主的莆田（Putian）（2），新房销售量则下降了10%。
Among smaller cities that are set to benefit from the mortgage subsidies, sales were polarized. In Huizhou, an affordable city in the Greater Bay Area that is seeking to fuse 11 cities into a megalopolis, new-home sales rose 42% from a year earlier, according to China Index Holdings. But in Putian, a small city full of shoe factories, new-home sales shrank 10%.
中原地产（Centraline Property）的首席分析师张大伟（Zhang Dawei）表示：“假期的销售增长主要是政策带来的结构性复苏，但并不意味着市场已经完全回暖。”
The holiday sales gain is a “structural recovery driven by policy benefits, but not a complete reversal,” said Zhang Dawei, chief analyst at Centaline Property.
标准普尔全球评级公司（S&P Global Ratings）周四预测：全国范围内的住宅价格可能还会继续下跌约两年，其中一线城市的房价有望在2027年率先回升。
Nationwide, primary residential prices may fall for about two more years, with top cities likely recovering sooner in 2027, S&P Global Ratings forecast on Thursday.
标准普尔的信用分析师Edward Chan指出：“供应过剩、不利的人口结构以及开发商仍较高的杠杆率是阻碍房地产市场稳定的主要因素。”
“Oversupply, unfavorable demographics, and developers’ still-high leverage are the main obstacles to market stabilization,” said S&P credit analyst Edward Chan.