在历经多次尝试遏制房地产行业长期低迷的局面后，中国决策者正在尝试一种新的诱导措施：代付部分购房者的按揭贷款利息。这项9月下旬宣布的新计划为符合条件的首套房购房者提供补贴，在未来12个月内申请按揭贷款的购房者可享受由银行发放的按揭贷款利率下调1个百分点、最长为期五年的补贴。
After repeated attempts to arrest the protracted slump in the property sector, Chinese policymakers are trying a new inducement: paying part of homebuyers’ mortgage interest. A new programme, announced in late September, offers eligible first-time buyers subsidies of one percentage point of the interest rate of mortgage loans issued by banks for up to five years, provided they take out a mortgage during the next 12 months.
这一优惠或许会提前释放部分购房需求，但它无法带来北京方面所希望的持续复苏，因为家庭越来越不愿意借贷。尽管按揭贷款利率屡次下调，但民众削减债务的决心依然坚定。截至6月底，由于还款额继续超过新贷款额，住户按揭贷款余额已连续13个季度同比下降。
The offer might bring forward some purchases but it won’t deliver the sustained recovery Beijing wants because households are increasingly reluctant to borrow at all. Despite repeated mortgage rate cuts, people remain adamant about reducing the debt they are carrying. By the end of June, outstanding household mortgages had fallen year on year for 13 consecutive quarters as repayments continued to outpace new borrowing.
按揭贷款下降的部分原因反映了住房市场的萎缩。自2021年住宅房地产市场达到顶峰以来，房价一直在稳步下跌——据报道某些城市甚至下跌了一半——因此购房者所需的贷款金额也变小了。
Part of the decline in mortgage borrowing reflects a shrinking housing market. Home prices have been falling steadily since the residential property market reached its peak in 2021 – reportedly by half in some cities – so buyers also need smaller loans.
即便在那些仍在购房的人当中，贷款购买一项在贬值的资产也越来越难以找到合理的支撑理由。据报道，在广州，6月至8月期间通过按揭贷款购买住房的比例从45.1%下降到了35.6%。在深圳，今年上半年超过四分之一的存货二手房交易完全用现金支付，比去年同期上升了6.3个百分点。那些无力全款支付的人则在支付更多首付，以控制未来的利息成本。
Even among those who are still buying, taking out a mortgage to purchase a depreciating asset is becoming harder to justify. In Guangzhou, the share of purchases financed with mortgages reportedly fell from 45.1 per cent to 35.6 per cent from June to August. In Shenzhen, more than a quarter of existing home transactions in the first half of the year were paid for entirely in cash, up 6.3 percentage points from a year earlier. Those who cannot afford to pay in full are making larger down payments to keep down future interest costs.
换句话说，中国家庭越来越希望拥有房屋却不想背负债务，这种偏好反映了他们对未来收入和房产价值的双重疑虑。这笔账很容易算清。在房地产繁荣时期，借贷买房是合情合理的：它锁定了当下的价格，而未来的增值足以支付利息。
In other words, Chinese households increasingly want the home without the debt, a preference reflecting doubts about both future income and property values. The arithmetic is easy to follow. During the property boom, borrowing to buy made sense: it secured today’s price, while tomorrow’s gains could more than cover the interest.
价格下跌彻底颠覆了这种计算方式。现在等待意味着有望获得更划算的交易，而申请按揭贷款则意味着在房产上锁定亏损，同时还要为这一特权向银行支付费用。
Falling prices have turned that calculation on its head. Waiting now offers the prospect of a better deal, while taking out a mortgage means locking in a loss on the property while paying the bank for that privilege.
这项按揭贷款补贴计划遵循了中国在其他提振国内需求努力中显现的思路。两年多来，北京一再推出补贴，鼓励家庭置换汽车、家电和电子产品——但收效不一且在递减。自去年9月以来，北京还对个人消费贷款进行了贴息。颇具说明意义的是，这些补贴并未阻止消费信贷的收缩。今年上半年，中长期和短期消费贷款余额双双下降，合计减少超过1万亿元（合1494亿美元）。
The mortgage subsidy programme follows an approach evident elsewhere in China’s efforts to revive domestic demand. For more than two years, Beijing has offered rounds of subsidies for households to replace cars, appliances and electronics – with mixed and diminishing success. Since last September, it has also subsidised interest on personal consumer loans. Tellingly, the subsidies have not stopped consumer credit from shrinking. Both short- and medium-to-long-term consumer loan balances fell in the first half of this year, declining by more than 1 trillion yuan (US$149.4 billion) combined.
北京将财政资源投入到房地产业低迷之中，这值得肯定，这是它长期以来一直不愿做的事情。决策者必须权衡遏制经济下行的需求与延长经济对房地产拉动型增长依赖的风险。无论好坏，目前的权衡取舍似乎正在转向直接救助。
Beijing deserves credit for committing fiscal resources to the housing slump, which is something it has long been reluctant to do. Policymakers have had to weigh the need to contain the downturn against the risk of prolonging the economy’s dependence on property-led growth. For better or worse, the calculus now appears to be shifting towards immediate relief.
不幸的是，通过采取补贴手段，北京面临着事倍功半的风险。折扣或更便宜的贷款或许足以说服普通家庭更换一台旧冰箱或购买一辆电动汽车，但为按揭贷款筹措资金需要对整个职业生涯的收入充满信心。对于那些首先就不确定自己能否负担得起债务的人来说，五年更低的利息提供不了多少安心保障。
Unfortunately, by reaching for subsidies, Beijing risks pushing on a string. A discount or a cheaper loan might be enough to persuade the average household to replace an ageing refrigerator or buy an electric car, but financing a mortgage requires confidence in earnings across much of a working life. Five years of cheaper interest offers little reassurance to those unsure they can afford the debt in the first place.
毕竟，住房不仅仅是一笔消费支出。它也是一项投资，通常是一个家庭一生中会做出的最大一笔投资。因此，恢复需求需要重建买家对资产价值的信心，而不仅仅是让债务更容易偿还。
After all, a home is more than a consumer purchase. It is also an investment, often the largest one a household will ever make. Reviving demand therefore requires restoring buyers’ confidence in asset value, not just making debt easier to service.
自房地产低迷开始以来，新商业按揭贷款利率已从2020年的约5.4%降至今年3%左右。首付要求已经降低，贷款期限也有所延长，但信心却继续走弱。在中国指数研究院持续进行的调查中，8月份仅有9%的受访者预计房价会上涨，低于一年前的13%.恢复信心并非易事。与其用更多的信贷优惠诱使人们借贷，北京不如将其有限的财政资源用于消化过剩的住房供应——这是导致价格下跌的结构性根源。
Since the property downturn began, rates on new commercial mortgages have fallen from roughly 5.4 per cent in 2020 to around 3 per cent this year. Down-payment requirements have been lowered and loan terms extended, yet confidence has continued to weaken. In an ongoing survey by China Index Academy, only 9 per cent of respondents in August expected home prices to rise, down from 13 per cent a year earlier. Restoring confidence will not be easy. Rather than nudging people to borrow with more credit perks, Beijing would do better to direct its limited fiscal resources towards absorbing excess housing supply – a structural source of downward price pressure.
地方收购计划自2024年以来一直在进行，但其覆盖范围受到地方财政薄弱的限制。中央资金可以为这些收购注入强劲动力，从而更快地使供求关系恢复平衡。
Local acquisition programmes have been under way since 2024, but their reach has been limited by weak local finances. Central funding could turbocharge those purchases, bringing supply and demand back into balance sooner.
通过以买家身份介入市场，北京可以发出一个强烈的信心信号——一个有其自身真金白银支持的信号。中国家庭需要确信房价已经找到底部。由谁来提供这份保证比北京更合适呢？
By stepping into the market as a buyer, Beijing could send an immediate signal of confidence – one that is backed by its own money. Chinese households want reassurance that home prices have found a floor. Who better to provide it than Beijing?