北京/香港,10月9日——今年为期七天的黄金周假期期间,中国游客单次旅行的平均支出降至四年低点,打破了此前对强劲旅游需求将带动整体消费复苏的期待。
BEIJING/HONG KONG, Oct 9 - Chinese travellers' average spending per trip fell to a four-year low during this year's seven-day Golden Week holiday, dashing hopes that strong travel demand would spur a broader recovery in consumer spending.
相反,中国消费者选择更多出国旅行,以利用假期前后更长的出行时间。这一趋势,加上该期间电影票房收入降至12年来的最低水平,可能会引起政府的担忧。中国政府一直试图通过刺激国内消费来提振整体经济。
Chinese consumers instead opted for more overseas travel to take advantage of a longer travel period around the holiday. That trend, along with movie ticket sales falling to their lowest in 12 years during the period, will likely raise concerns in the government, which has sought to spur domestic spending to boost the overall economy.
根据路透社对周五公布的政府数据的计算,假期期间国内单次旅行的平均支出下降了1.9%,从一年前的911.04元人民币降至893.92元人民币(合133.51美元)。
Average spending per domestic trip during the holiday fell 1.9% to 893.92 yuan ($133.51) from 911.04 yuan a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations based on government data published on Friday.
这是自2022年以来的最低水平,当时中国新冠疫情管控最为严格期间,单次旅行支出曾降至680.60元人民币。
That was the lowest since 2022, when spending fell to 680.60 yuan during the most severe period of China's COVID-19 restrictions.
国庆节假期是中国最长的公共假期之一,单次旅行支出被视为衡量消费者信心的重要指标。
The National Day holiday is one of China's longest public breaks, and spending per trip is closely watched as a gauge of consumer confidence.
近年来,由于房地产市场的长期低迷、工资增长缓慢以及就业市场疲软,中国消费者信心持续低迷,导致消费支出始终乏力。
Consumer spending in China has remained stubbornly weak in recent years as a prolonged property downturn, sluggish wage growth and a soft job market weighed on household sentiment.
Forthright Securities的高级分析师廖艾莎表示,中国消费者“有强烈的消费意愿,但信心不足”。
Chinese consumers have a "strong willingness to spend, but weak confidence," said Ailsa Liao, a senior analyst at Forthright Securities.
她指出:“在我们看来,关键制约因素并非缺乏消费意愿,而是对收入和就业前景的不确定性。”
"The key constraint, in our view, is not a lack of desire to consume, but uncertainty over income and employment prospects," she said.
10月1日开始的七天假期比去年短了一天。然而,许多游客将其与9月25日至27日的中秋节假期合并,形成了长达13天的潜在假期,从而鼓励了更长时间、更远距离的旅行。
The seven-day holiday beginning October 1 was one day shorter than last year's break. However, many travellers combined it with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, which fell on September 25 to 27, creating a potential 13-day vacation that encouraged longer, more far-flung trips.
这家在线旅行社表示,通过Trip.com Group预订的出境航班中,超过一半的行程在10月1日之前出发,平均旅行时长超过九天。
More than half of outbound overseas flight bookings made through Trip.com Group were for departures before October 1, with average trip lengths exceeding nine days, the online travel agency said.
国外酒店入住七晚以上的预订量比去年同期增长了123%,多目的地行程增长了84%,报告称。
Bookings for foreign hotel stays of at least seven nights rose 123% from a year earlier, while multi-destination itineraries climbed 84%, it added.
龙途国际市场营销与传播总监Sienna Parulis-Cook表示,今年出境旅游需求明显更强。
Outbound demand for overseas travel was markedly stronger this year, said Sienna Parulis-Cook, director of marketing and communications at Dragon Trail International.
该营销公司在八月进行的一项调查发现,54%的受访者计划在假期期间出境旅行,高于一年前的35%,但价值仍是关键考虑因素。
A survey the marketing firm conducted in August found that 54% of respondents planned overseas trips during the holiday period, up from 35% a year earlier, although value remained a key consideration.
Parulis-Cook补充说,只有5%的受访者计划入住豪华酒店,而中档住宿以33%成为最受欢迎的选择。
Only 5% of respondents planned to stay in luxury hotels, while mid-range accommodation was the most popular option at 33%, Parulis-Cook added.
“消费者愿意走得更远,但仍在有选择地消费,”Forthright Securities的Liao说。
"Consumers are willing to travel farther, but they are still spending selectively," said Forthright Securities' Liao.
国内酒店数据也显示消费趋于克制。关键行业指标可供房间平均收入(RevPAR)在10月1日至5日间比去年同期下降了0.5%,而平均每日房价下降约2%,Jefferies分析师在周三的报告中引用InnHome数据指出。假期电影市场几乎没有出现更广泛的消费复苏迹象。
Domestic hotel data also pointed to restrained spending. Average revenue per available room, a key industry measure, slipped 0.5% from a year earlier over October 1 to 5, while average daily room rates fell about 2%, Jefferies analysts said in a note on Wednesday, citing InnHome data. The holiday cinema market showed little sign of a broader spending revival.
国庆假期通常是中国票房最高的时期之一,仅次于春节。然而,根据中国电影行业分析平台猫眼的数据,今年假期的票房收入仅为11.6亿元,同比下降36.6%,是自2014年以来国庆假期票房最低的。
The National Day holiday is typically one of China's biggest box-office periods alongside the Lunar New Year. Yet revenue during this year's holiday totalled just 1.16 billion yuan, according to data from Chinese film industry analysis platform Maoyan, down 36.6% from a year earlier and the lowest National Day holiday box office since 2014.
Citi分析师在周一的报告中指出,假期前四天的票房表现甚至不如新冠疫情期间,原因是“缺乏大片”和假期游客更倾向于旅行而非去电影院。
Takings in the first four days of the holiday were worse than during the COVID-19 pandemic, Citi analysts said in a note on Monday, blaming a "lack of blockbusters" and holidaymakers choosing to travel instead of going to the cinema.
旅行社对假期后出境需求更为乐观,这表明中国消费者在某些情况下仍有信心消费。
Travel agencies were more optimistic about outbound overseas demand beyond the holiday period, a sign that Chinese consumers are confident to spend money in some instances.
上海春航集团旗下的旅游业务部门“春航旅游”表示,9月份的签证申请量较一年前增长了一倍多。热门目的地包括意大利、西班牙、法国、澳大利亚、美国和加拿大。
Spring Tour, the tourism arm of Shanghai-based Spring Group, said visa application volumes in September more than doubled from a year earlier. Popular destinations included Italy, Spain, France, Australia, the United States and Canada.
该公司表示,许多旅客都会在出发前很久完成签证申请,并计划在重大节假日之后出行,以避免旺季的人潮。
The company said many travellers complete visa applications well before departure and plan to travel after major holidays to avoid peak-season crowds.
该公司称:“预计第四季度以及明年,出境游的需求将继续保持强劲增长势头。”
"Demand for outbound travel is expected to continue gaining momentum in the fourth quarter and through next year," the company said.