民主党人认为特朗普总统犯有可被弹劾的罪行。但他们对于在控制众议院后是否应该尝试弹劾他存在分歧。
Democrats believe President Trump has committed impeachable offenses. But they're divided over whether they should try to impeach him if they win control of the House.
为何这很重要：如果民主党如预期般赢得众议院控制权，他们在2027年是否对特朗普进行弹劾的决定可能会对2028年的总统选举产生重大影响。
Why it matters: If Democrats win the House, as expected, their 2027 decision on whether to try to impeach Trump could have major consequences for the 2028 presidential race.
详细分析：从理论上讲，如果众议院由民主党统一控制，弹劾特朗普应该相对容易。
Zoom in: Theoretically, impeaching Trump would be easy for a unified, Democrat-controlled House.
- 许多民主党高层人士指出，特朗普在其第一个任期内曾两次面临弹劾威胁，但都成功幸存下来；因此他不太可能被罢免。要罢免他，需要在参议院获得三分之二的赞成票，而参议院的投票结果很可能非常胶着（即两党立场相近）。
• Many top Democrats note that Trump survived a record two impeachments in his first term — and that he'd be unlikely to be removed from office. That would require a two-thirds, bipartisan vote in a Senate that's likely to be closely divided.
- 马里兰州民主党众议员杰米·拉斯金表示，特朗普在其第二个任期内“已经犯下了多项可被弹劾的罪行”，包括侵犯国会权力。2021年1月6日国会山骚乱事件后，拉斯金曾领导了第二次针对特朗普的弹劾案。
• Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said Trump has "already committed numerous impeachable offenses" in his second term, including usurping congressional authority. In 2021, Raskin led the second Trump impeachment, following the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
- 拉斯金强调：“民主党高层非常清楚参议院在弹劾问题上所需的三分之二投票门槛意味着什么。事实上，自上次弹劾尝试以来，唐纳德·特朗普对共和党的控制力反而加强了；他已经驱逐了那些他认为不够忠诚或阿谀奉承的参议员。”
• Raskin said top Democrats are "very sober about what that two-thirds requirement means on the Senate side. If anything, Donald Trump has tightened his control over the Republican Party since the last round. He's gotten rid of the senators that he viewed as not sufficiently loyal and sycophantic."
其他民主党人的态度：还有一些民主党人也警告称，如果他们的政党在1月份控制了众议院，就不应启动弹劾程序。
Other Democrats also are cautioning against an impeachment campaign if their party takes control of the House in January.
- 前芝加哥市长拉姆·伊曼纽尔（可能的总统候选人）上周日在NBC的《会见媒体》节目中表示，他支持对特朗普进行调查，但反对弹劾：“因为这毫无意义，只会引发党内纷争。”
• Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a potential presidential candidate, told NBC's "Meet the Press" last Sunday that he supports investigations, not impeachment, "because it's not going anywhere and it's going to be a food fight." • Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) said recently: "Don't be impeaching anybody ...
- 伊利诺伊州民主党参议员塔米·达克沃思最近表示：“不要弹劾任何人……让我们专心工作吧。”
Let's just get back to work." Friction point: Democrats' more progressive wing is already talking about an impeachment drive.
分歧焦点：民主党中较为激进的部分人士已经在讨论发起弹劾行动的可能性。
关键信息：
• Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told The Floridian in March: "If you are asking me if I support impeachment, I do.
- 纽约州民主党众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez）在3月份对《The Floridian》杂志表示：“如果你问我是否支持弹劾，我的答案是肯定的。我认为弹劾的理由非常明确，那就是是否遵守了法律。”
I think that it's on very objective grounds of following the law or not." • Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a liberal who, like AOC, is weighing a White House run, also has argued for impeachment. • "It's about setting a standard," he told NBC News, rejecting the notion that an impeachment would distract Democrats from pushing policy changes.
- 加利福尼亚州民主党众议员罗·卡纳（Ro Khanna）也支持弹劾；与奥卡西奥-科尔特斯一样，他也正在考虑是否参加总统竞选。
"Democrats can impeach to uphold constitutional values, and at the same time have a first-hundred-day agenda that deals with the cost of living." What's next:
- 罗·卡纳在接受NBC News采访时指出：“弹劾的目的是为了树立一个标准，而不是让民主党人分心、无法推动政策改革。民主党人可以通过弹劾来维护宪法价值观，同时仍可以推进解决民生问题的议程。”
Trump, who denies wrongdoing, is already preparing for his third impeachment. He told reporters Wednesday that he was "never even worried" about his first two impeachments. • "I can do whatever I want, if I want," Trump said, calling the impeachments and subsequent criminal cases against him "very illegal things."
接下来的发展：特朗普否认自己有任何不当行为，但他已经在为可能的第三次弹劾做准备。他在周三对记者表示：“我对前两次弹劾根本毫不在意。”
• "I view the presidency as a very sacred position," he said. "Very sacred position. Very important. Very sacred. A position where it has to be treated properly." Deep down
特朗普称这些弹劾行为以及随后针对他的刑事诉讼都是“非法的”，并表示：“我认为总统职位是一个非常神圣的职位，必须得到应有的尊重。”
Trump might welcome an impeachment, one adviser said, "because he's in his element in chaos and when he's being persecuted." • A longtime confidant said: "If Democrats win and start the investigations, he'll get more defiant ...
内部观点：一位顾问认为，特朗普实际上可能欢迎弹劾——因为他在混乱中反而如鱼得水，而且他喜欢面对迫害。
Democrats won't be able to resist impeachment and he won't be able to resist daring them to do it. You think you control Donald Trump? Well, f*ck you.
一位长期与他关系密切的人士表示：“如果民主党人获胜并启动调查，他会变得更加固执反抗；民主党人将无法阻止弹劾，而特朗普也不会拒绝他们的行动。”
You don't." • A senior administration official said the belief within the White House is that an impeachment would "just prove Democrats are all about getting Trump, and this stuff about affordability is just a hoax."
一位政府高级官员认为，白宫内部普遍认为弹劾只会证明民主党人的真正目的只是想扳倒特朗普，而那些关于民生问题的讨论其实只是骗局。
Between the lines: Democrats know they face a conflict between holding Trump accountable and delivering on their campaign promises to restore Medicaid cuts and bolster the Affordable Care Act.
隐含的矛盾：民主党人面临着一个两难境地：他们既要追究特朗普的责任，又要兑现自己在竞选中承诺的恢复医疗补助削减措施和加强《平价医疗法案》（Affordable Care Act）的承诺。
• Raskin said: "Does this make sense as a matter of law and politics and public policy to advance another impeachment?
关键观点：
- 拉斯金表示：“从法律、政治和公共政策的角度来看，是否应该再次启动弹劾程序？这显然是一个比‘特朗普是否在未经国会同意的情况下发动战争、或违法征收关税、或滥用职权进行大规模腐败行为’更为复杂的问题。”
That's obviously a more complex question than whether or not he's violating the Constitution when he goes to war without congressional consent or he imposes tariffs outside of the law, or he engages in unprecedented scales of corruption in abusing his office."
- 他补充说：“对我们来说，弹劾程序并非某种‘执念’；但同时，它也绝不是一个被禁忌的话题。”
• "So all this is to say, it is not a fetish with us," he added. "On the other hand, it's definitely not a taboo."
- 拉斯金作为一名法学教授，很有可能会领导众议院司法委员会——该委员会将负责处理任何弹劾案。他强调：“弹劾本质上是一个同时涉及法律和政治的复杂问题。”
Raskin, a law professor, is in line to lead the House Judiciary Committee, which would be involved in any impeachment. He emphasizes that "impeachment is by definition an intertwined question of both law and politics." • In other words, it's not just a legal process.
- 这就是为什么弹劾程序由众议院发起，随后由参议院进行审判（而非最高法院）。
• That's why the House impeaches and the president is then tried in the Senate, not the Supreme Court.
背后的政治博弈：
The intrigue:
- 乔恩·奥索夫参议员（民主党，来自佐治亚州）曾在2025年4月表示强烈支持弹劾特朗普，并认为特朗普确实犯下了可被弹劾的罪行；但到了同年夏天，他的立场发生了变化。
Some Democrats have been at odds with themselves on impeachment. • Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), another potential 2028 candidate, said in April 2025 that he "strongly" supported impeaching Trump and that there's "no question" the president committed impeachable offenses. • By this summer, however, Ossoff was no longer committed to it.
- 一些共和党人暗示，如果他们在11月3日的选举中继续控制参议院，他们可以通过投票决定驳回弹劾指控来绕过弹劾程序。
Behind the scenes: Some Republicans have indicated that if they keep control of the Senate in the Nov. 3 election, they could bypass an impeachment trial by simply voting to dismiss the charges.
- 2024年，当拜登政府的国土安全部长亚历杭德罗·马约卡斯遭到众议院弹劾时，参议院的共和党领导人曾警告称，民主党此举可能会为将来共和党执政时树立一个不良先例。
• Senate Democrats did that in 2024, after President Biden's homeland security secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas, was impeached by the House. Senate Republican leaders warned then that Democrats were setting a precedent they may not like when Republicans were in charge.
- 另外，副总统万斯也很有可能在接下来的两年内参选总统。
Then there's Vice President Vance. He's likely to run for president over the next two years as Democrats debate impeachment.
- 一位政府官员表示：“万斯最热衷的事情就是为总统辩护；针对总统的‘法律斗争’只会让共和党人更加团结。”
• "JD relishes nothing more than defending the president," an administration official said. "More 'lawfare' against POTUS will unify Republicans even more."
- “如果民主党人希望乔·拜登（JD）成为总统，那就请弹劾特朗普吧。”
• "If Democrats want JD to become president, please, impeach Trump."