唐纳德·特朗普经常警告他的支持者，如果民主党在11月获胜，他就会被调查。
Donald Trump often warns his supporters that he’ll be investigated if Democrats win in November.
“如果我们不赢，他们最终会弹劾我，”他本月在俄克拉何马州的一次集会上对支持者说。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊在6月更明确地发出了这一威胁，他对一屋子保守派活动人士说，民主党人会把每个委员会都变成调查机构，并追究特朗普的家人、内阁、捐助者和朋友。“这个房间里有一半的人会成为目标，”他警告说。这一警告有些讽刺意味。
“If we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me,” he told supporters at an Oklahoma rally this month. House Speaker Mike Johnson made the threat more explicitly in June, telling a room of conservative activists that Democrats would turn every committee into an investigative body and go after Trump’s family, Cabinet, donors and friends. “Half of you in this room will be targeted,” he warned. There’s some irony in that warning.
自特朗普重返白宫以来，调查或起诉已涉及数名曾批评他的人，包括前联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米、前中央情报局局长约翰·布伦南、纽约州总检察长利蒂希娅·詹姆斯、参议员亚当·希夫和众议员伊尔汗·奥马尔等人。一些案件已被驳回或撤销；另一些仍在进行中。如今，特朗普和约翰逊却在告诉他的支持者，要担心民主党人可能会针对他。
Since Trump returned to office, investigations or prosecutions have involved several people who have been critical of him, including former FBI Director James Comey, former CIA Director John Brennan, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Sen. Adam Schiff and Rep. Ilhan Omar, among others. Some cases have been dismissed or dropped; others remain active. Now Trump and Johnson are telling his supporters to worry that Democrats might target him.
但这一警告也揭示了特朗普的政治观：这是硬碰硬的较量，他假定对手也会以同样的方式行事。
But the warning also reveals Trump’s view of politics: It’s hardball, and he assumes his opponents will play the same way.
这也让他的一些其他警告颇具揭示性。特朗普声称，民主党人可能会通过让华盛顿哥伦比亚特区和波多黎各成为州、扩大最高法院以及废除参议院的冗长辩论规则来改变政治制度。所有这些想法成为现实的可能性都远低于特朗普所描述的程度，尽管它们曾被一些有改革意愿的国会议员提出过。
That makes some of his other warnings revealing, too. Trump has argued that Democrats might change the political system by making Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico states, expanding the Supreme Court and eliminating the Senate filibuster. All of these ideas are much less likely than Trump makes them out to be, though they have been proposed by reform-minded members of Congress.
但特朗普说民主党人会这么做，这一事实表明，如果换作是他，他就会这么做。以下是更详细的审视：华盛顿哥伦比亚特区成为州民主党人支持吗？支持。众议院曾在2020年和2021年通过法案，接纳华盛顿哥伦比亚特区成为州。2024年民主党纲领也表示，民主党人“明确支持”华盛顿哥伦比亚特区成为州。
But the fact that Trump is saying Democrats would do them suggests that’s what he would do in their place. Here’s a closer look: Statehood for D.C. Do Democrats support it? Yes. The House passed bills to admit D.C. as a state in 2020 and 2021. The 2024 Democratic Party platform also says Democrats “unequivocally support” D.C. statehood.
民调显示什么？哥伦比亚特区居民支持建州，但全国舆论尚未定论。在2025年《经济学人》/YouGov民调中，39%的人支持将哥伦比亚特区设为州，33%的人反对。
What do polls show? Statehood is popular with D.C. residents, but national opinion is less settled. In a 2025 Economist/YouGov poll, 39% supported making D.C. a state and 33% opposed it.
支持的理由是什么？哥伦比亚特区居民缴纳联邦税，但在国会中没有拥有投票权的代表。国会对该特区拥有广泛权力，包括审查或阻止某些地方法律的权力。支持者表示，建州将使居民在国会中获得完全代表权，并对地方事务拥有更多控制权，就像各州居民一样。
What are the arguments for it? D.C. residents pay federal taxes but have no voting representatives in Congress. Congress also has broad authority over the district, including the power to review or block some local laws. Supporters say statehood would give residents full representation in Congress and more control over local affairs, as residents of states have.
为什么特朗普认为民主党会这么做？建州可能会为参议院增加两个倾向民主党的席位。
Why does Trump think Democrats would do it? Statehood would likely add two Democratic-leaning seats to the Senate.
障碍是什么？国会必须通过一项建州法案。根据现行规则，支持者需要60票才能克服阻挠议事，而特朗普仍可能否决该法案。还有宪法问题，包括如何处理第23条修正案，该修正案赋予该特区三张选举人团选票。
What are the obstacles? Congress would have to pass a statehood bill. Under current rules, supporters would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and Trump could still veto it. There are also constitutional questions, including how to address the 23rd Amendment, which gives the district three Electoral College votes.
波多黎各建州 民调显示什么？在2024年波多黎各一次不具约束力的公投中，在三个列出的选项中投出的选票中，有58.6%支持建州。（当前的领地地位未列入选票，反对者敦促选民将问题留空。）在2025年全国民调中，45%的美国成年人支持波多黎各建州，28%反对。
Statehood for Puerto Rico What do polls show? In a nonbinding referendum in Puerto Rico in 2024, 58.6% of votes cast for one of the three listed options favored statehood. (The current territorial status was not on the ballot, and opponents urged voters to leave the question blank.) In a 2025 national poll, 45% of U.S. adults supported statehood for Puerto Rico and 28% opposed it.
支持的理由是什么？支持者表示，建州将使波多黎各的美国公民在国会中拥有投票代表权，并在总统选举中拥有投票权。他们还认为，建州将结束波多黎各在某些联邦计划中面临的不平等待遇。
What are the arguments for it? Supporters say statehood would give Puerto Rico’s U.S. citizens voting representation in Congress and a vote in presidential elections. They also argue that statehood would end the unequal treatment Puerto Rico faces in some federal programs.
为什么特朗普认为民主党会这么做？建州将增加两名参议员和几名众议员，尽管哪个政党将获益最多尚不清楚。
Why does Trump think Democrats would do it? Statehood would add two senators and several House members, though it’s much less clear which party would benefit the most.
障碍是什么？最可能的路径是国会通过法案设立具有约束力的公投，波多黎各批准建州，然后由国会接纳。与华盛顿特区一样，接纳新州需要克服参议院的阻挠议事程序，并获得总统签署。
What are the obstacles? The most likely path is for Congress to pass a bill creating a binding referendum, Puerto Rico to approve statehood and then Congress admitting it. As with D.C., admission would need to overcome a Senate filibuster and get the president’s signature.
扩大最高法院 民主党人支持吗？有些人支持。2024年党纲呼吁对最高法院设定任期限制并制定道德准则，但并未支持增加席位。2023年，民主党人提出了《司法法案》，该法案将把最高法院从九名大法官扩大到13名。该法案从未付诸表决。
Expanding the Supreme Court Do Democrats support it? Some do. The 2024 platform called for Supreme Court term limits and a code of ethics, but did not endorse adding seats. In 2023, Democrats introduced the Judiciary Act, which would have expanded the court from nine justices to 13. It never came up for a vote.
民调显示什么？公众意见分歧。在2024年爱默生学院的民调中，37%的人支持将最高法院扩大到13名大法官，39%的人反对。
What do polls show? The public is divided. In a 2024 Emerson College poll, 37% supported expanding the court to 13 justices and 39% opposed it.
支持的理由是什么？支持者表示，增加席位可以制衡一个他们认为已被党派确认之争重塑的法院，并有助于恢复公众对该机构的信心。批评者警告说，扩大最高法院可能使法院看起来更加党派化，并导致下一个共和党多数派干脆也增加自己的席位。
What are the arguments for it? Supporters say adding seats could counterbalance a court they see as having been reshaped by partisan confirmation fights, and could help restore public confidence in the institution. Critics warn that expansion could make the court look even more partisan and lead to the next Republican majority simply adding seats of its own.
特朗普为什么认为民主党人会这么做？他曾警告说，民主党人可能会扩大最高法院以确保自由派多数。
Why does Trump think Democrats would do it? He has warned that Democrats might expand the court to secure a liberal majority.
障碍是什么？国会通过法律设定大法官人数，因此扩大最高法院不需要宪法修正案。但法案需要60票才能克服参议院的阻挠议事程序，而且仍可能被特朗普否决。
What are the obstacles? Congress sets the number of justices by law, so expansion would not require a constitutional amendment. But a bill would need 60 votes to overcome a Senate filibuster and could still be vetoed by Trump.
废除阻挠议事程序 民主党人支持吗？有些人支持。其他人则提议以某种方式改变它。2024年，时任副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯表示，她将支持暂停阻挠议事程序以通过一项联邦堕胎权法律。
Ending the filibuster Do Democrats support it? Some do. Others have proposed changing it in some way. In 2024, then-Vice President Kamala Harris said she would support suspending the filibuster to pass a federal abortion rights law.
民调显示什么？这取决于问题怎么问。在2024年Navigator Research的民调中，60%的人表示，取消允许参议院少数派阻止立法的规则将对政府产生积极影响。但2021年的一项民调显示，支持改革阻挠议事程序的人多于支持完全废除它的人。
What do polls show? It depends on how the question is asked. In a 2024 Navigator Research poll, 60% said eliminating the rule that lets a Senate minority block legislation would have a positive effect on government. But a 2021 poll showed more support for reforming the filibuster than ending it entirely.
支持者有何理由？支持者认为，阻挠议事让少数派参议员得以阻挠即使拥有多数支持的法案，使国会更难就重要议题采取行动——包括上文讨论的三项构想。参议院此前已取消了对最高法院大法官终身任命的确认阻挠议事。
What are the arguments for it? Supporters say the filibuster lets a minority of senators block bills even when they have majority support, making it harder for Congress to act on important issues — including the three ideas discussed above. The Senate already ended the filibuster for confirming Supreme Court justices to lifetime positions.
特朗普为何认为民主党会这么做？特朗普多次敦促共和党在掌控参议院期间废除阻挠议事，理由是民主党若重掌大权，为推行其议程也会这么做。
Why does Trump think Democrats would do it? Trump has repeatedly urged Republicans to eliminate the filibuster while they control the Senate, arguing that Democrats would do the same if they regained power in order to pass their agenda.
有哪些障碍？参议院此前曾以简单多数票终结最高法官提名的阻挠议事。因为这是规则变更，所以不需要总统签署。
What are the obstacles? The Senate previously used a simple-majority vote to end the filibuster on Supreme Court justices. Because it’s a rule change, it does not require a presidential signature.
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