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美国银行策略师哈特内特:投资者涌入现金市场,且短期内不会撤出Investors Pour Into Cash and Set to Stay, BofA’s Hartnett Says

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来源:彭博社Source: Bloomberg

据美国银行策略师迈克尔·哈特内特(Michael Hartnett)称,投资者正以疫情以来最快的速度将资金投入现金基金,且短期内不太可能改变这一策略。

Investors just poured money into cash funds at the fastest pace since the pandemic, and are unlikely to shift it anytime soon, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.

哈特内特在周五的一份报告中写道,在美联储实施“大规模货币宽松”并持续降息之前,这些巨额现金将继续留在场外观望。

The large amount of cash on the sidelines is set to stay there until there is “big monetary easing” and sustained interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the strategist wrote in a note Friday. Money-market funds had inflows of $166.4 billion in the week ended Oct. 7, the most since April 2020.

截至10月7日的一周内,货币市场基金流入了1664亿美元,创下2020年4月以来的最高纪录。哈特内特指出,除非利率下调,否则现金流不会减少。目前债券市场预计美国在明年7月底前还将加息三次。

“No rate cuts, no cash cuts,” Hartnett wrote.

随着全球通胀背景下利率上升,股票正面临来自债券和现金等高收益、低风险投资的激烈竞争。

The bond market expects another three rate hikes in the US by the end of July, with the next expected at the December meeting. Large reductions in cash holdings tend to coincide with instances of big monetary easing, Harnett wrote.

数据显示,上周债券市场流入338亿美元,而股票市场流入124亿美元。

Stocks face increasing competition from bonds and cash, safer investments with appealing yields, as interest rates rise globally in the face of inflation. Bonds saw a $33.8 billion inflow in the latest week, while $12.4 billion flowed into equities, according to BofA.

哈特内特认为,美国中期选举可能是影响2027年前股市走势的关键因素,鉴于当前的央行加息周期和收紧的金融环境,他对此持避险态度。

Hartnett views the US midterms as the most likely reason for a big move in stocks going into 2027, an event that he’s taking a risk-off stance ahead given the current central-bank rate cycle and tighter financial conditions.