美国银行公司策略师迈克尔·哈特内特表示，投资者的避险情绪可能会一直持续到11月中旬，这再次表明，围绕人工智能交易和美国中期选举的紧张情绪一直在抑制股市。
Investors’ risk-off mood is likely to continue well into November, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett, in another sign of how jitters around the artificial intelligence trade and the US midterm elections have held back equity markets.
“我们在战术上保持避险，直到11月中旬，”该策略师周五在致客户的报告中写道。“预期收益率下行、股市下行、美元下行的交易。”哈特内特表示，市场仍需充分消化民主党同时赢得众议院和参议院的定价，这将对盈利增长构成利空，因为这将导致当前的低税收、低监管制度结束。
“We stay tactically risk-off until mid-Nov,” the strategist wrote in a note to clients Friday. “Expect down-in-yields, down-in-stocks, down-in US dollar trade.”Hartnett said the market still needs to fully price a Democratic victory in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, which would be negative for earnings growth as it would result in an end to the current low-tax, low-regulation regime.
哈特内特称，另一个预示风险偏好复苏的因素将是欧洲央行或法国政府介入，扭转法国债券收益率的暴跌。最近令市场惊恐的人工智能超大规模企业债务利差见顶，也可能由削减资本支出或“极端的股权发行宣布”带来。
Another factor that would signal a revival of risk appetites would be the European Central Bank or French government stepping in to reverse the rout in French bond yields, Hartnett said. A peak in AI hyperscaler debt spreads, which have spooked markets recently, could also be brought about by cuts to capital spending or an “extreme equity issuance announcement,” he said.
投资者仍在持续涌入人工智能相关板块。该行引用EPFR Global数据显示，科技股上周录得自7月以来最大单周资金流入。美银本月的一项调查还显示，全球投资者对科技板块的敞口自2020年8月以来处于最高水平。
Investors are continuing to pile into the AI-related sectors. EPFR Global data cited by the bank showed the largest weekly inflows into technology stocks since July. A Bank of America survey this month also showed that global investors are the most exposed to tech since August 2020.
不过近期，他们也转向防守，寻求庇护，以应对从油价攀升、借贷成本上升到担忧人工智能交易开始出现泡沫化迹象等一系列风险。
In recent days, though, they’ve also taken a defensive turn, looking for shelter from a series of risks ranging from climbing oil prices and higher borrowing costs as well as worries that the AI trade is starting to exhibit bubble-like conditions.
亿万富翁肯·格里芬本周警告称，投资者“几乎可以肯定”正处于人工智能泡沫之中。作为市场广度替代指标的标普500等权指数周四相对于市值加权标普500指数录得自2024年以来最佳单日表现。与此同时，防守型日常消费品股有望录得自1998年以来最佳单月表现。
Billionaire Ken Griffin warned this week that investors are “almost certainly” in the midst of an AI bubble. An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 Index — a proxy for market breadth — on Thursday had its best day since 2024 relative to the market-cap weighted S&P 500. Defensive consumer staple stocks, meanwhile, are on track for their best month since 1998.