在市场能够再次向新高发起冲击之前，必须先应对那堵日益被人工智能融资成本所主导的担忧之墙。
A wall of worry increasingly dominated by artificial intelligence’s financing costs needs dealing with before the market can make a run at fresh highs.
科技股遭到抛售并不意味着投资者已经关闭了风险偏好。他们正在全力进行风险敞口轮动，变得更加防御，并逆转对人工智能交易中一些最大牺牲品的空头押注。随着融资成本不断攀升，他们也在退出人工智能领域最大的赢家。政治不确定性和地缘政治热点则增添了更多层的风险。
The selldown in technology stocks doesn’t mean investors have turned risk off. They’re rotating exposure at full throttle, turning more defensive and reversing bets against some of the biggest casualties of the AI trade. They’re also exiting AI’s biggest winners as financing costs keep climbing. Political uncertainty and geopolitical flashpoints are adding more layers of risk.
因此，标普500等权重指数势将以有记录以来最大的月度差距之一跑赢市值加权标普500指数，也就不足为奇了。这一差距创下了1990年有数据记录以来的第六大，且接近历史常态的三个标准差。
It’s therefore no wonder that an S&P 500 gauge that allocates each stock equal weight is set to outperform its market-cap-weighted counterpart by one of the widest monthly margins on record. The gap is the sixth widest in data going back to 1990 and nearly three standard deviations from the historical norm.
以迈克尔·哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）为首美国银行公司的策略师表示：“我们在11月中旬之前保持战术上的避险状态。”他们预计，在期中选举中民主党大获全胜被市场定价之前，债券收益率、股票和美元将继续下跌。其他潜在的拐点包括干预以阻止法国债券暴跌、削减人工智能资本支出，或者通过股权融资帮助债务利差见顶。
“We stay tactically risk-off until mid-November,” said Bank of America Corp. strategists led by Michael Hartnett. They expect bond yields, stocks and the dollar to keep falling until a Democratic sweep in the midterms is priced in. Other potential turning points include intervention to stem France’s bond rout, cuts to AI capital spending or equity raises that could help debt spreads peak.
策略师表示，如果涉及俄罗斯和乌克兰的和平协议、或者美国与伊朗之间的和平协议导致油价每桶下跌10至20美元，市场可能会获得近期的提振。在下行方面，他们警告称，超大规模数据中心运营商债券利差跃升至200个基点以上，可能会迫使投资者在对影子银行体系压力的担忧加剧之际削减风险。
The strategists said markets could get a near-term boost if peace deals involving Russia and Ukraine, or between the US and Iran, sent oil down $10 to $20 a barrel. On the downside, they warned that a jump in hyperscaler bond spreads above 200 basis points could force investors to cut risk as concerns about stress in shadow banking grow.
半导体和超大规模数据中心运营商的去杠杆化正迫使投资者重新评估经济增长预期，这有助于解释美国债券收益率下跌的原因。事实上，债券已经开始重新充当科技股的对冲工具，纳斯达克100指数与10年期美国国债收益率之间的相关性十分突出。如果市场曾存在高收益率问题，那么人工智能支出的焦虑正在解决它。
The unwind in semiconductors and hyperscalers is forcing investors to reassess economic growth expectations, helping explain the drop in US bond yields. In fact, bonds have started to act as a hedge against tech again, with the correlation between the Nasdaq 100 and 10-year Treasury yields standing out. If the market had a high-yield problem, AI spending angst is solving it.
高盛集团欧洲单利交易主管理查德·普里沃罗茨基（Richard Privorotsky）表示：“人工智能输了，债券赢了。”他补充说，市场正在综合性地削减资本支出、降低增长预期并减轻久期压力。“人们对一切都感到担忧，”他说道。这些担忧包括“交付吉瓦电力能力、过多的吉瓦电力、资本不足、电力不足、期中选举后的政治影响、网络安全”。
“AI loses, bonds win,” said Richard Privorotsky, head of European one-delta trading at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., adding the market is synthetically cutting capex, lowering growth expectations and taking pressure off duration. “People are worried about everything,” he said. Those concerns include “the ability to deliver gigawatts, too many gigawatts, insufficient capital, insufficient power, post-midterm political implications, cybersecurity.”
半导体承受了此次轮动的主要冲击。费城半导体指数正接近超卖水平及其200日移动均线。此外，半导体估值已降至未来预期收益的17倍左右，这一水平在过去两年中曾两次标志着该基准指数的底部。
Semiconductors are bearing the brunt of the rotation. The SOX Index is nearing oversold levels as well as its 200-day moving average. What’s more, semiconductor valuations have fallen to around 17 times forward earnings, a level that marked a bottom for the benchmark twice over the past two years.
此轮变动发生在几家大型超大规模云厂商发布财报之前，为人工智能交易迎来了关键的一周。微软公司、亚马逊公司、字母表公司和甲骨文公司将提供关于他们将积压订单转化为收入的速度、部署步伐以及计划支出金额的线索。这将是技术面与基本面交汇的关键时刻。
The move comes ahead of major hyperscaler results, setting up a crunch week for the AI trade. Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Oracle Corp. will offer clues on how quickly they can turn their backlogs into revenue, the pace of deployment and how much they plan to spend. It will be a key moment when technicals meet fundamentals.
与此同时，交易商的持仓远非彻底看涨。根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）截至10月20日的6周滚动数据显示，标普500指数的期货资金流向仍然偏向卖出，呈现放缓但持续的资金外流。纳斯达克期货的买盘在月中左右消失，尽管上周6周滚动数据有所反弹，但尚未包含周四的暴跌。
Meanwhile, dealer positioning is hardly outright bullish. Futures flows remain skewed toward selling for the S&P 500, with six-week rolling data through Oct. 20 showing a slowing yet constant outflow, according to CFTC. Buying of Nasdaq futures vanished around mid-month and while the six-week rolling number bounced last week, it does not yet include Thursday’s rout.
如果要用单幅画面来捕捉市场现状，那可能就是下面的图表。自从美国股市在10月6日创下新高以来，纳斯达克100指数和标普500指数充分展现了人工智能权重的重要性。其中一个指数保持在正常统计范围内，而另一个则正向异常值区间移动。
If one were to capture the market in single frame, it might be the chart below. Since US stocks reached a fresh record on Oct. 6 the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 have shown just how much the weight of AI matters. One remains within a normal statistical range, while the other is moving toward outlier territory. The divergence captures the rotation, the depth of the drawdown and the rising cost of protection as investors reposition.
以莫妮卡·德芬德（Monica Defend）为首的东方汇理投资研究所策略师表示：“如果变现情况令人失望，资本支出和估值可能会下降，而债务依然存在，从而损害经济增长并对股市施加压力。这是主要的风险情境。”他们补充说，盈利可见性和可持续的融资条件将至关重要。“我们的基准预测是消化吸收而非破裂。名义增长仍然提供支撑，通胀预期保持锚定，信贷市场秩序井然，投资依然强劲。”
“If monetization disappoints, capex and valuations could fall while the debt remains, hurting growth and putting pressure on equities. That is the main risk case,” said Amundi Investment Institute strategists led by Monica Defend, adding that earnings visibility and sustainable financing conditions will be critical. “The base case is absorption rather than rupture. Nominal growth remains supportive, inflation expectations are anchored, credit markets are orderly and investment is still strong.”