纽约，10月23日电：美国股市投资者面临关键一周，以主要人工智能企业为首的企业财报发布以及美联储会议，均对突然动摇的市场反弹构成关键考验。
NEW YORK, Oct 23 : US stock investors face a pivotal week, with corporate earnings reports led by major AI players and a Federal Reserve meeting both posing critical tests for a suddenly shaky market rally.
科技股走弱让投资者对推动美国股市牛市（刚满四周年）的人工智能交易前景感到不安。
Weakness in technology shares left investors on edge about the state of the AI trade that has driven the US equity bull market that just marked its fourth anniversary.
人工智能板块回调周四加深，纳斯达克综合指数录得自6月以来最大单日跌幅。投资者对Meta和兰姆研究公司的季度财报感到失望。Meta是大规模投资建设数据中心的超大规模云服务商之一，而兰姆研究是一家高飞的半导体公司，属于人工智能股票最大赢家群体之一。
The AI pullback deepened on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite posting its biggest one-day drop since June. Investors were disappointed by quarterly reports from Meta and Lam Research. Meta is one of the hyperscalers spending massively to build out data centers, while Lam is a high-flying semiconductor company, one of a group that has been among the biggest AI stock winners.
另外三家超大规模云服务商——Alphabet、微软和亚马逊——领衔本周密集的季度财报发布，其中包括约三分之一的标普500成分股公司。美联储周三的利率政策会议也可能震动市场。
Three other hyperscalers - Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon - headline a packed week of quarterly results, including about one-third of S&P 500 companies. The Fed's interest rate policy meeting on Wednesday also could rattle markets.
“空中有很多球在抛接，”Alpine Macro首席股票策略师Nick Giorgi说。
"There are a lot of balls in the air," said Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro.
“下周还有更多科技股财报，目前市场正以审慎眼光审视伴随人工智能而来的所有支出，”Giorgi说。“市场不再给那些在全力构建人工智能基础设施上投入巨资的公司以信任红利，这对我们来说其实非常健康，但仍预示着短期内会有一些阵痛。” 投资者也将目光聚焦于11月3日的美国中期选举，市场越来越押注民主党将从唐纳德·特朗普总统领导的共和党手中夺回美国国会控制权。
"Next week, you have a lot more tech earnings, and right now the market is taking a discerning eye as it relates to all the spending that goes along with artificial intelligence," Giorgi said. "The market's just not giving the benefit of the doubt to companies that are spending a ton of money on building this all out, which to us is actually very healthy, but still does augur for some short-term pain." Investors also have their focus trained on the US midterm elections on November 3, with growing bets that the Democrats will wrest control of the US Congress away from President Donald Trump's Republican party.
这一系列市场催化剂可能在未来几周推高波动率，并对推动标普500基准指数2026年迄今上涨约12%的乐观情绪构成挑战。
The series of market catalysts could ratchet up volatility over the next couple of weeks and challenge optimism that has helped lift the benchmark S&P 500 index up about 12 per cent in 2026.
超大规模云服务商面临考验 稳健的美国企业利润增长支撑了股市今年的涨势，这发生在包括国债收益率飙升以及中东冲突导致能源成本上升等逆风因素面前。
HYPERSCALERS ON THE HOT SEAT Robust US profit growth has underpinned the stock market's gains this year in the face of headwinds including spiking Treasury yields and rising energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict.
根据LSEG IBES数据，迄今已有100多家公司发布了业绩，标普500指数成分股第三季度盈利有望较去年同期增长逾32%。下周是财报季最繁忙的一周。
With more than 100 companies having posted results so far, third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are on pace to have climbed more than 32 per cent from a year ago, according to LSEG IBES data. Next week is the busiest of the reporting season.
贝克大道财富管理公司首席策略师King Lip表示：“我认为业绩将决定这轮……科技股回调是买入良机，还是预示着更深度的调整即将到来。我们需要的只是再一轮真正强劲的业绩。”Alphabet和微软将于周三发布财报。亚马逊的业绩将于周四出炉。市场关注的焦点将是这些公司对资本支出计划给出的指引，以及它们是否在巨额投入中看到了回报。
"I think earnings will determine whether this ... tech pullback is a buying opportunity, or is there a deeper correction ahead," said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management. "What we need is just another round of really strong earnings." Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday. Amazon's results are due Thursday. Focus will be on the guidance the companies give on capital spending plans and whether they are seeing returns on the massive outlays.
预计今年超大规模云服务商的资本支出将达约8000亿美元，这提振了参与AI基础设施建设的广泛公司的净利润。但投资者对这种支出在融资成本不断上升的背景下能否持续保持警惕。
Capital spending from hyperscalers, expected to be around $800 billion this year, is boosting the bottom lines for a wide swath of companies involved in the AI buildout. But investors are wary of the sustainability of such spending amid mounting financing costs.
亨尼昂与沃尔什资产管理公司总裁兼首席投资官Kevin Mahn表示：“业绩对AI交易的整体信心水平以及这种支出还将持续多久至关重要。”
"Earnings are critical to the overall confidence level of the AI trade and how much longer the spend will continue," said Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh Asset Management.
美联储预计暂时按兵不动 芯片公司英特尔和闪迪下周的季度财报也可能影响AI交易。
FED EXPECTED TO PAUSE ON RATES, FOR NOW Quarterly reports next week from chip companies Intel and Sandisk also could influence the AI trade.
此外，下周将发布财报的其他高关注度公司还包括制药商礼来、石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙，以及工业设备巨头卡特彼勒。
Elsewhere, other high-profile companies set to report next week include drugmaker Eli Lilly, oil majors Exxon and Chevron and industrial equipment giant Caterpillar.
美联储会议也让进一步加息的前景成为焦点。美联储9月份加息，这是自2023年以来首次加息，旨在控制高于目标的通胀，但根据伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据，周四晚间联邦基金期货显示，美联储在周三发布政策声明时再次加息的可能性仅为5%。
The prospect for more interest rate hikes also comes into focus with the Fed meeting. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, in an effort to control above-target inflation, but Fed fund futures late on Thursday suggested only a 5 per cent chance the Fed will hike again when it gives its policy statement on Wednesday, according to LSEG data.
其中一个因素是：投资者怀疑美联储是否愿意在中期选举前一周加息。
One factor: Investors are dubious that the Fed will want to increase rates just a week before the midterm elections.
不过，市场倾向于认为美联储将在12月的下次会议上加息，期货显示届时加息的概率为80%。
However, markets are leaning toward a hike at the next meeting in December, with futures suggesting an 80 per cent probability of such a move then.
格林伍德资本首席投资官沃尔特·托德表示，他将关注美联储主席凯文·沃什在决议后的新闻发布会上是否透露关于利率路径的任何暗示。
Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood Capital, said he will be watching for any hints about the rate path at Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference following the decision.
托德说：“他是否会说些什么，让人们对12月有个概念，因为目前的预期是届时将会加息？”
"Does he say something to give an idea about December, because right now the expectation is there is going to be a hike?" Todd said.