下周将给正试图站稳脚跟的股市带来重大风险，因为 AI 交易持续受挫，届时将有多家超大市值公司发布财报、美联储召开会议以及一份关键通胀报告出炉。华尔街即将进入财报季最密集阶段，标普 500 指数成分股中有 163 家公司定于下周公布业绩。其中最受瞩目的是 Alphabet、Amazon 和 Microsoft 的财务更新，它们是继 Meta Platforms 和 Tesla 本周财报遭遇出人意料的冷淡反应、并拖累大盘下跌后，接下来发布财报的超大规模云服务商。
Next week will bring major risks for a stock market that's trying to find its footing as the AI trade continues to stumble, with several megacap earnings, a Federal Reserve meeting and a key inflation report in store. Wall Street is heading into the thick of earnings season, with 163 S & P 500 companies set to report results next week. Chief among them are financial updates from Alphabet , Amazon and Microsoft , the next hyperscalers to release earnings after Meta Platforms and Tesla found a surprisingly poor reception this past week, dragging down the broader market in thei wake.
“市场对科技领域潜在利好消息持怀疑态度，这一点值得关注，” Nationwide 投资管理集团首席市场策略师 Mark Hackett 表示，“这也是我非常好奇下周将如何演变的原因。”
"The fact that the market has skepticism around potential good news in the technology space, particularly, that's worth watching," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at the investment management group at Nationwide. "That's why I'm really curious to see how next week goes."
Meta 的财报让投资者不安，他们担心这家社交媒体巨头的 AI 支出计划能否持续。该股本周暴跌逾 8%，此前报告自上市以来首次出现负自由现金流。周四，Meta 五年期信用违约互换利差触及历史新高，进一步加剧了恐慌。Tesla 最终本周收涨逾 5%，尽管财报显示其在新兴技术领域投入巨大，导致股价一度下跌。质疑 AI 可持续性这加剧了市场担忧，即下周发布财报的超大规模云服务商也将披露资本支出大幅增加的消息，增幅可能高达 1000 亿美元，据 Evercore 互联网研究团队负责人 Mark Mahaney 称。
Meta's results unnerved investors who worried about the sustainability of the social media giant's AI spending plans. The stock slumped more than 8% this week, after reporting negative free cash flow for the first time ever going back to its public debut. On Thursday, the spread on Meta's five-year credit default swaps reached all-time highs, adding further to fears. Tesla eventually ended the week higher, up more than 5%, after initially falling after its results showed enormous investments into emerging technology verticals. Questioning AI sustainability That has added to fear that the hyperscalers reporting next week will also disclose news of heightened capital spending, perhaps by as much as $100 billion, according to Mark Mahaney, who heads Evercore's Internet research team.
Alphabet 和 Microsoft 将于下周三发布财报，Amazon 将于周四公布业绩。但 Mahaney 表示，股市近期的下跌也可能意味着投资者已将坏消息计入这些公司股价。Alphabet 股价本周下跌逾 5%，Amazon 和 Microsoft 各自下跌约 1%。
Alphabet and Microsoft report next Wednesday, and Amazon posts results Thursday. But the latest slide in stocks could also mean that investors have already priced bad news into those companies, Mahaney said. Alphabet shares are down by more than 5% this week. Amazon and Microsoft are each down by about 1%.
“市场的恐惧现在已经体现在股价中，”马汉尼说。如果两家公司宣布不需要筹集资金，或者仅宣布一笔适度的股权或债务交易，股价实际上可能上涨，他补充道。这些结果可能决定科技交易在十月最终走向何方。截至周五，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数预计本月将下跌超过3%，标准普尔500指数也下跌。唯有道琼斯工业平均指数预计本月将上涨，涨幅近3%。
"The market fear is now in the stock," Mahaney said. If the two companies were to announce they did not need to raise capital, or announce just a modest equity or debt deal, the stocks could actually rise, he added. Those results could determine just where the tech trade ends October. As of Friday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was set to close out the month down by more than 3%, with the S & P 500 also lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average alone is set to end the month higher, by nearly 3%.
科技股之间也存在更大的分歧。半导体股本月已暴跌，下跌超过15%。内存股暴跌超过20%。七大科技巨头下跌超过2%。但软件股，尤其是网络安全股，预计本月将录得涨幅。
There's also just greater division among the tech stocks. Semiconductors have been crushed, down more than 15% this month. Memory stocks plunged more than 20%. The Magnificent Seven companies are down more than 2%. But software stocks, and cybersecurity names in particular, are set to end the month with gains.
美联储信誉，PCE美联储主席凯文·沃什下周三在美联储下一次政策会议后的新闻发布会上登台时，将不得不保持微妙的平衡，EY-Parthenon首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科表示。如果央行如广泛预期的那样将利率维持在当前的3.75%至4.00%不变，沃什将不得不向一屋子记者解释暂停加息的原因。美联储在9月会议上曾表示，在通胀问题上意见一致。
Fed credibility, PCE Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will have to strike a delicate balance next Wednesday when he takes the podium at the press conference following the Fed's next policy meeting, according to Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. If the central bank holds rates steady at their current 3.75% to 4.00%, as is widely expected , Warsh will have to explain the pause to a room full of reporters. The Fed had signaled at the September meeting that it was unanimous in taking inflation seriously.
在随后的几周里，经济数据显示，随着汽油和柴油价格飙升带来压力，通胀正在进一步远离美联储2%的目标。但疲弱的9月就业报告以及一系列美联储官员对更高利率持耐心态度，抑制了对10月27日至28日会议加息的预期。那些表达出很少迫切性的持怀疑态度的官员包括美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊和纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯。
In the weeks since, the economic data has shown that inflation is moving still further away from the Fed's 2% target, as surging gas and diesel prices pile on pressure. But a weak September jobs report and a succession of Fed officials signaling a patient view of higher interest rates, have curbed expectations of a rate hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting. Those skeptical officials who have expressed little need for urgency include Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams.
这提高了主席沃什的赌注，他曾表示倾向于少说话，而投资者此时可能更倾向于更清晰的沟通。
That heightens the stakes for chairman Warsh, who has expressed a preference for fewer words at a time when investors may prefer clearer communication.
“我认为美联储面临的压力正在增加，要求其兑现承诺。仅在通胀问题上强硬表态、重申对物价稳定的承诺是不够的，”达科表示。“如果不兑现这些承诺，市场就会开始质疑你们的公信力。”
"I think there is growing pressure on the Fed to deliver upon its words. It's not sufficient to be talking a tough game on the inflation front and reiterating your commitment to price stability," Daco said. "If you don't deliver upon those commitments, then markets will start to question your credibility."
周三的美联储会议结束后，次日将公布央行首选的通胀指标。预计9月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数环比上涨0.5%，增速慢于前一个月的0.9%。但核心通胀（剔除食品和能源价格）预计同比上涨3.1%，高于前值3.0%。科技股与其他板块分化表面上看，第三季度财报季进展符合预期。迄今已发布业绩的标普500成分股公司中，82%业绩超出预期。
The Fed meeting on Wednesday will be followed the next day by the release of the central bank's preferred inflation gauge. The September reading for the personal consumption expenditure price index is projected to have risen 0.5%, slower than the prior month's reading of 0.9%. But core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 3.1% over the past year, up from 3.0% previously. Split between tech and everything else On the surface, the third quarter earnings season is bearing out as expected. Of the S & P 500 companies that have reported thus far, 82% have beaten expectations.
待所有业绩出炉后，大盘指数预计将录得约30%的盈利增幅，对比去年同期。这是历史性盈利繁荣的最新延续，几乎是空前的，因为企业并非从某种经济灾难中复苏，而是借着人工智能（AI）势头继续发展。这也继续表明市场表现可继续向好，尤其是即将进入日历上表现最好的六个月——11月至次年4月。
When results are over, the broad market index is set to have posted earnings growth of roughly 30% versus the third quarter a year ago. It's the latest continuation of a historic earnings boom that is virtually unprecedented considering that companies are not coming out of the throes of some economic calamity, but instead building on AI momentum. And, it continues to suggest the market can continue to do well, especially as it heads into the best six months on the calendar, from November through April.
近期看空情绪升温也可能预示股市有望在近期反弹。不过，科技股的疲软值得关注，因为AI交易若进一步出现裂痕，可能引发由科技股引领的抛售。
The recent increase in bearish sentiment may also suggest equities are due for a near-term pop. Still, the weakness in tech bears watching, as any further cracks in the AI trade could mean a tech-fueled selloff. Nationwide's Hackett expects that technology will continue to underperform, having already absorbed the bulk of the gains from AI. But he also said the rest of the market remains in "good shape," and he plans to stick with stocks that may have been overly punished and could start outperforming.
全国互助保险公司的哈克特预计，科技板块将继续跑输大盘，因其已吸纳了AI带来的大部分涨幅。但他也表示，市场其余部分保持“良好状态”，他计划持有那些可能被过度惩罚、并有望开始跑赢大盘的股票。
"We're in a coiled spring moment right now, where the outcome is very likely to be positive," Hackett said. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, October 26 Earnings: Public Storage , Nucor , The Hartford Insurance Group , Verizon Communications Tuesday, October 27 8:30 a.m.
“我们正处于一个‘紧绷的弹簧’时刻，结果极有可能是积极的，”哈克特说。本周日程 所有时间均为美东时间。
Durable Orders preliminary (September) 9:00 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (August) 10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence (October) 10:00 a.m.
周一，10月26日 财报：Public Storage、Nucor、The Hartford Insurance Group、Verizon Communications周二，10月27日 上午8:30 耐用品订单初值（9月） 上午9:00 FHFA房价指数（8月） 上午10:00 消费者信心指数（10月） 上午10:00 新屋销售（9月） 财报：FirstEnergy、Visa、PPG Industries、Robinhood Markets、Waste Management、Universal Health Services、Extra Space Storage、Illinois Tool Works、Ecolab、Hubbell、The Boeing Co.、Sherwin-Williams、Coca-Cola、Royal Caribbean Group、CMS Energy、United Parcel Service、Hilton Worldwide、PayPal、HCA Healthcare、Corning、Freeport-McMoRan、CenterPoint Energy周三，10月28日 上午8:30 批发库存初值（9月） 下午2:00 FOMC会议 下午2:00 联邦基金利率目标区间上限 财报：O'Reilly Automotive、Raymond James Financial、MGM Resorts International、ServiceNow、Chipotle Mexican Grill、T-Mobile US、Gen Digital、Ford Motor、eBay、Carvana、Align Technology、Tyler Technologies、Microsoft、Mid-America Apartment Communities、KLA、Invitation Homes、Honeywell Aerospace、Alphabet、Fortinet、FedEx、American Water Works、Fortive、Phillips 66、Old Dominion Freight Line、International Paper、Automatic Data Processing、Labcorp Holdings、NiSource、Boston Scientific、GE Healthcare Technologies、Generac Holdings、Otis Worldwide、GE Vernova、C.H.
New Home Sales (September) Earnings: FirstEnergy , Visa , PPG Industries , Robinhood Markets , Waste Management , Universal Health Services , Extra Space Storage , Illinois Tool Works , Ecolab , Hubbell , The Boeing Co. , Sherwin-Williams , Coca-Cola , Royal Caribbean Group , CMS Energy , United Parcel Service , Hilton Worldwide , PayPal , HCA Healthcare , Corning , Freeport-McMoRan , CenterPoint Energy Wednesday, October 28 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (September) 2:00 p.m FOMC Meeting 2:00 p.m.
Robinson Worldwide、Amphenol、Biogen、American Electric Power周四，10月29日 上午8:30 GDP链式价格指数首值（第三季度） 上午8:30 GDP首值（第三季度） 上午8:30 初请失业金人数 上午8:30 核心PCE平减指数（9月） 上午8:30 个人消费支出（9月）个人收入（9月）财报：GoDaddy、Twilio、Mondelez International、Edison International、Digital Realty Trust、Monolithic Power Systems、Gilead Sciences、Amazon、Weyerhaeuser、Veralto、Sandisk、Starbucks、Resmed、Reddit、Ingersoll Rand、Intel、Illumina、First Solar、FedEx、Freight Holding、DexCom、Coinbase Global、Ameriprise Financial、Intercontinental Exchange、Baxter International、Vulcan Materials、T.
Fed Funds Target Upper Bound Earnings: O'Reilly Automotive , Raymond James Financial , MGM Resorts International , ServiceNow , Chipotle Mexican Grill , T-Mobile US , Gen Digital , Ford Motor , eBay , Carvana , Align Technology , Tyler Technologies , Microsoft , Mid-America Apartment Communities , KLA , Invitation Homes , Honeywell Aerospace , Alphabet , Fortinet , FedEx , American Water Works , Fortive , Phillips 66 , Old Dominion Freight Line , International Paper , Automatic Data Processing , Labcorp Holdings , NiSource , Boston Scientific , GE Healthcare Technologies , Generac Holdings , Otis Worldwide , GE Vernova , C.H. Robinson Worldwide , Amphenol , Biogen , American Electric Power Thursday, October 29 8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price first preliminary (Q3) 8:30 a.m.
Rowe Price Group、Altria Group、Howmet Aerospace、Bristol-Myers Squibb、Quanta Services、Eli Lilly、Hershey、Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings、Merck、D.R. Horton、Cognizant Technology Solutions、Caterpillar、Xcel Energy、West Pharmaceutical Services、Carrier Global、Bunge Global、Mastercard、L3Harris Technologies、Huntington Ingalls Industries、Ares Management、A.O.
GDP first preliminary (Q3) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (September) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (September) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (September) Earnings: GoDaddy , Twilio , Mondelez International , Edison International , Digital Realty Trust , Monolithic Power Systems , Gilead Sciences , Amazon , Weyerhaeuser , Veralto , Sandisk , Starbucks , Resmed , Reddit , Ingersoll Rand , Intel , Illumina , First Solar , FedEx , Freight Holding , DexCom , Coinbase Global , Ameriprise Financial , Intercontinental Exchange , Baxter International , Vulcan Materials , T. Rowe Price Group , Altria Group , Howmet Aerospace , Bristol-Myers Squibb , Quanta Services , Eli Lilly , Hershey , Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings , Merck , D.R. Horton , Cognizant Technology Solutions , Caterpillar , Xcel Energy , West Pharmaceutical Services , Carrier Global , Bunge Global , Mastercard , L3Harris Technologies , Huntington Ingalls Industries , Ares Management , A.O.
Smith 周五，10月30日 上午8:30 ECI平民工人（第三季度） 上午9:45 芝加哥PMI（10月）财报：Dominion Energy、Cboe Global Markets、General Dynamics、Colgate-Palmolive、Exelon、ExxonMobil、Regeneron Pharmaceuticals、Chevron、AbbVie
Smith Friday, October 30 8:30 a.m. ECI Civilian Workers (Q3) 9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI (October) Earnings: Dominion Energy , Cboe Global Markets , General Dynamics , Colgate-Palmolive , Exelon , ExxonMobil , Regeneron Pharmaceuticals , Chevron , AbbVie