可能将我们全部消灭，也可能只是帮我们取消那些不想要的订阅服务。
Artificial intelligence could wipe us all out. Or it might just kill our unwanted subscriptions.
过去两周里，股市就在这两种极端预期之间摇摆不定：数百亿美元的资金时而从与人工智能相关的股票中流出，时而又重新回流，令急于跟上市场节奏的投资者们神经紧绷。
Those are the two extremes the stock market has swung between over the past two weeks, sending hundreds of billions of dollars sloshing out of — and then back into — AI-exposed stocks while fraying the nerves of investors scrambling to keep up.
“这完全是一个由市场叙事驱动的市场，而这种叙事每隔一周就会发生变化，”拉弗·滕格勒投资公司的首席执行官南希·滕格勒说道。
“This has been a narrative market and the narrative changes every other week,” said Nancy Tengler, chief executive officer at Laffer Tengler Investments.
事情始于9月12日。当时，Anthropic公司首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪呼吁放缓尖端人工智能模型的开发步伐，这一提议迅速得到了OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼以及SpaceX首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的支持。这些举动似乎印证了业界近期关于该技术可能带来生存风险的一系列警告。
It started on Sept. 12, when Anthropic Chief Executive Officer Dario Amodei called for a slowdown in development of cutting-edge AI models, which was quickly backed by OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman and SpaceX Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk. The moves seemed to validate a series of recent warnings from within the industry about existential risks posed by the technology.
股市反应迅速。阿莫迪的文章发布后的首个交易日，由于投资者担心开发节奏放缓会导致计算设备采购需求减少，各类人工智能基础设施相关股票纷纷下跌。9月14日至15日期间，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数下跌了1.5%，CoreWeave Inc.和Lam Research Corp.等公司的股价跌幅更是超过9%，导致整个市场市值缩水逾6000亿美元。
The response in the stock market was swift. On the first trading day after Amodei’s essay was published, AI infrastructure stocks tumbled, as investors worried that hitting the brakes on development would mean less spending on computing equipment. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 1.5% between Sept. 14 and 15, erasing more than $600 billion in market value as stocks like CoreWeave Inc. and Lam Research Corp. fell more than 9%.
不过上周，随着Meta Platforms Inc.推出的个人助手Muse广受欢迎，投资者们又重新涌入与人工智能相关的股票，此前的担忧也随之烟消云散。
But those fears vanished last week as excitement about the popularity of Meta Platforms Inc.’s Muse personal assistant sent traders rushing back into AI exposed stocks.
周一，Meta的股价上涨了11%。此前，由于市场担忧公司在人工智能领域的巨额投入难以获得回报，其股价全年表现平平。如今，这家拥有Facebook和Instagram的科技巨头有望迎来十多年来表现最出色的一个月。
Meta shares jumped 11% on Monday, putting the Facebook and Instagram parent on pace for its best month in more than a decade after struggling for much of the year amid concerns that heavy spending on AI wouldn’t pay off.
周一，安谋控股股价大涨17%，英特尔和超微半导体股价也分别上涨逾9%。费城证券交易所半导体指数（代码为SOX）在周一和周二累计上涨6%，推动纳斯达克100指数创下6月初以来的新高。
Arm Holdings Plc jumped 17% on Monday while Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. each rallied more than 9%. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index, known by its ticker SOX, gained 6% on Monday and Tuesday, helping to push the Nasdaq 100 to its first record since early June.
与此同时，由于预计人工智能代理将在价格对比、行程预订及客户服务等任务上发挥更大作用，那些依赖定期收费或可协商定价模式的公司股价纷纷下跌。本周，保险公司好事达股价下跌8.9%，有线电视运营商查特通信股价暴跌12%，健身连锁企业星球健身股价也跌去了14%。
It also triggered selloffs in the shares of companies that rely on recurring bills and negotiable pricing as AI agents are expected to improve at tasks like price comparison, trip bookings and customer service interactions. Insurer Allstate Corp. fell 8.9% this week while cable-provider Charter Communications Inc. sank 12% and Planet Fitness Inc. shed 14%.
不过截至本周末，自9月15日的低点以来，纳斯达克100指数总市值已增加了3万亿美元。
Still, by the end of the week, $3 trillion had been added to the Nasdaq 100 since the Sept. 15 low.
“市场的涨跌幅度都令人咋舌，”Wayve资本管理公司的首席策略师里斯·威廉姆斯说道，“从基本面角度很难解释这种现象。”当然，市场情绪的快速波动对这个近四年来一直受人工智能驱动而持续走强的市场而言并不罕见。2025年初，中国以低成本开发出的深度求索人工智能模型引发了市场对科技支出放缓的担忧，导致半导体股集体暴跌；在人工智能芯片市场占据主导地位的英伟达股价单日跌幅更是高达17%。
“The moves are staggering in both directions,” said Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Wayve Capital Management. “It’s hard to explain from a fundamental point of view.”Of course, rapid changes in sentiment are nothing new in this market, which has been propelled higher by AI for nearly four years. In early 2025, fears about a pullback in spending sparked by a DeepSeek AI model, developed on the cheap in China, caused semiconductor stocks to plunge. Nvidia Corp., which dominates the market for AI chips, dropped 17% in a single day.
虽然这些担忧最终被证明是多余的，但随着科技巨头与人工智能初创企业的投入持续增加，人工智能对市场及经济的重要性愈发凸显。这也使得投资者在面对人工智能带来的行业变革时愈发敏感。
While those fears proved to be misplaced, AI has only gotten more important for the market and the economy with spending from tech giants and AI startups ballooning. And that’s giving investors itchy trigger fingers, especially when it comes to AI disruption.
此次由人工智能引发的抛售潮与今年早些时候的情况类似：当时Anthropic发布的新人工智能工具导致从软件即服务企业到资产管理公司等众多行业的股价纷纷下挫。
The Muse-driven selloff had echoes of earlier this year when releases of AI tools from Anthropic sent shares in a broad range of industries tumbling, from software-as-a-service companies to asset managers.
不过在人工智能投资方面，投资者除了需应对安全风险外，还面临其他诸多挑战。当前利率不断攀升，导致人工智能研发成本随之上升；此外，数据中心也正遭到越来越多的反对声音。
But when it comes to AI spending, investors are grappling with other risks in addition to safety. Interest rates are soaring, making the cost of AI development more expensive. And there’s a rising backlash against data centers.
关于这股资金流入减缓的担忧在半导体股中最为明显。自年初至6月22日，纳斯达克半导体指数翻倍上涨后，随后在7月29日触低下跌了29%。尽管该指数已展开反弹，但仍较6月峰值下跌13%。
Fears about that flow of money slowing down have been most apparent in semiconductor stocks. After doubling from the start of the year through June 22, the SOX tumbled 29% to a July 29 low. While the index has staged a rebound, it remains down 13% from the June peak.
据顾问资本管理公司的投资组合经理乔安妮·芬尼表示，这波抛售行情从股价中去除了不少泡沫，使许多公司具备了进一步上涨的潜力。
The selloff has knocked a lot of the froth out of stock prices, leaving many of the companies poised for more gains, according to JoAnne Feeney, a portfolio manager at Advisors Capital Management.
芬尼表示：“你们无需相信这种增长速度会持续五年，就可以持有像英伟达或博通这样的公司及其他一些公司，因为它们的估值已经真正回落了。”芬尼所属公司同时持有这两只股票。“我们很可能已经为人工智能基础设施建设的关键参与者重新获得投资兴趣所做好了准备。”据彭博汇编的数据显示，英伟达股价最近触及十多年来最便宜的估值。以不足17倍的未来12个月盈利倍数计算，该股的估值已是2025年时的一半。
“You don’t have to believe that this pace of growth is going to continue for five years in order to own companies like Nvidia or Broadcom and some of the others, because their valuations have really come in,” said Feeney, whose firm holds shares of both companies. “We may very well be positioned for renewed interest in the key contributors to the AI infrastructure build out.”Nvidia shares recently hit their cheapest valuation in more than a decade. At less than 17 times profit expected over the next 12 months, the stock’s multiple is half what it commanded in 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
其他投资者则采取更为谨慎的态度。桑德资本管理公司的投资组合经理丹尼尔·菲林表示，尽管他仍看到人工智能交易中存在相当大的风险，特别是因为没有人知道这项技术未来的发展前景。
Other investors are taking a more cautious approach. Daniel Pilling, a portfolio manager at Sands Capital Management, still sees plenty of risk in the AI trade, particularly because no one knows what’s in store for the technology.
菲林表示：“我们以相当的谦逊态度来管理这些投资，即在我们能做的事情和我们所知道的方面。但总的来说，我还是会说，或许人们对人工智能的担忧有些过头了，我想这比我们在5月和6月所表现出的那种看涨情绪要更为理性。”根据腾格勒的观点，这种怀疑情绪比比皆是，并且正是市场仍然健康的一种信号。
“We manage it with a lot of humility in terms of what we can do and what we know,” said Pilling. “But net-net I would actually still say that maybe there’s a sense of AI concern, I suppose rather than sort of that bullishness that we had in May and June.”Such skepticism is plentiful and a sign that the market remains healthy, according to Tengler.
她表示：“你们不希望出现过度狂热，就像我们在上世纪末所经历的那样，”她在提及点击泡沫时说道。
“What you don’t want is euphoria, which is what we had at the end of the nineties,” she said, referring to the dot-com bubble.
本周，投资者将在周三收市后，当存储芯片制造商美光科技公司公布财报时，了解到人工智能支出前景的最新情况。大家似乎都认同一点：市场情绪的剧烈波动短期内不会消失。
Investors will get the latest read on the outlook for AI spending this week when memory chip maker Micron Technology Inc. reports earnings on Wednesday after markets close. One thing everyone seems to agree on is that rapid sentiment swings aren’t going away any time soon.
“人们很容易只关注‘破坏效应’这一面，同样也容易只看到‘潜在创造效应’，”拥有约27亿美元管理资产的莫特利傻瓜资产管理公司首席投资策略师兼投资组合经理比尔·曼说道。“在一段时间内，这都将是市场的常态。”
“It’s easy to focus on the destruction argument, and it’s equally easy to focus on the potential creation argument,” said Bill Mann, chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at Motley Fool Asset Management, which has about $2.7 billion in assets. “That’s going to be our reality in the markets for a while.”