全球都在屏息以待，想要弄清楚今年在人工智能领域投入的约1万亿美元资金是否只是建立在“沙子上”的幻想（即这些投资是否注定会失败）。
The world is holding its breath as it waits to find out whether this year's estimated $US1tn investment in artificial intelligence is resting on a castle made of sand.
上周，纳斯达克100指数（该指数涵盖了美国纳斯达克交易所中100家最大的非金融类科技公司）下跌了5.5%，这引发了人们普遍的担忧：人工智能产业是否即将迎来崩溃。
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 – an index of the 100 biggest non-financial stocks on the American tech-heavy Nasdaq exchange – dropped by 5.5%, triggering the usual angst that the AI boom is about to go bust.
这一趋势的根源可能要追溯到澳大利亚数据中心公司Firmus的上市失败。这家公司原本计划通过首次公开募股（IPO）筹集数十亿美元，甚至有望使其市值超过澳大利亚电信巨头Telstra；然而，这一计划最终未能实现。
The recent rot may have started with the failure of Firmus, an Australian datacentre company, to list on the ASX. The multi-billion dollar initial public offering was, at one stage, on track to make Firmus worth more than Telstra – even before having delivered on its promised earnings.
如果这真的是人工智能产业繁荣的终结信号，那么其实才刚刚开始而已。周一晚间，华尔街的科技股价格又重新回升了。
That proved to be a fever dream of its founders and a wake-up call to investors in Australia and around the world to reconsider the potential value of similar businesses.
Minack Advisors的Gerard Minack表示，他认为投资者们严重高估了人工智能企业所能带来的投资回报：“虽然我越来越确信人工智能投资的回报会令人失望，但我无法准确预测人工智能市场的顶峰何时会出现。”
If this is the beginning of the end of the AI boom, it is only the very beginning, and tech stocks bounced back in Wall Street trade on Monday night. Gerard Minack, of Minack Advisors, said his view was that investors were fundamentally overestimating the returns that AI providers will be able to deliver.
尽管近期市场出现了波动，纳斯达克100指数的当前市值仍几乎是2023年初时的三倍。
"While I am becoming more confident that returns on AI investment will disappoint, I have no confidence calling the precise top of the AI market," Minack said.
与此同时，在标准普尔500指数中，谷歌（Alphabet）、亚马逊（Amazon）、苹果（Apple）、Meta、微软（Microsoft）、英伟达（Nvidia）和特斯拉（Tesla）等科技巨头如今占据了该指数总市值的35%，而十年前这一比例仅为12%。过去两年里，这七家公司的总市值增长了50%以上。
Despite the recent wobbles, the Nasdaq 100 is still worth nearly three times more than at the start of 2023. On the S&P 500, meanwhile, tech titans Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla now account for 35% of the American sharemarket index, up from 12% a decade ago. The total market capitalisation of the so called "magnificent seven" companies has increased by more than 50% in the past two years.
摩根大通资产管理公司（JP Morgan Asset Management）的全球市场策略师Raisah Rasid指出，最近的股价下跌其实是一次“估值的重置”，而非市场对人工智能技术本身有效性的质疑。
Raisah Rasid, a Singapore-based global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, said what she was seeing in the recent sell-off was "a valuation reset, rather than the market questioning the efficacy of AI itself".
“这仍然是一个长期性的、结构性变革趋势，”拉西德说，“这与互联网泡沫的情况截然不同。”拉西德认为存在两个可能更具威胁性的因素：首先，某个开源人工智能模型（可能来自中国）可能会颠覆人工智能产业的经济基础，以及由此带来的数千亿美元的投资损失——这一担忧也得到了米纳克的认同。
"This is still a long-term, structural transformation trend," Rasid said. "This is very different from the dotcom bubble." Rasid sees two potentially more meaningful threats. First, that an open source AI model, potentially from China, could undermine the economics of AI and the hundreds of billions of dollars of investment – a concern shared by Minack.
其次，拉西德指出，公众的反对情绪有可能达到临界点；例如，人们对数据中心建设的反感，或者担心人工智能会对工人和社会造成更大的伤害而非好处。
The second, said Rasid, is the risk that popular opposition gains a critical mass: for example, anger about datacentre developments or that AI will do more harm to workers and society than good.
美国即将到来的季度财报季将揭示这些人工智能公司是否真的配得上它们极高的估值。不过米纳克认为，即使在出现负面财报信号后，股市仍有可能继续上涨。
The imminent quarterly earnings season in the US will deliver the latest verdict on whether the AI companies are worth their extremely high valuations. But Minack said sharemarkets can continue to climb well after warning signs over earnings emerge.
NAB的首席经济学家莎莉·奥尔德也同意这一观点：上周市场估值的回落更像是投资者在暂时调整投资策略，而非整个市场彻底失去了信心。
Sally Auld, NAB's chief economist, agreed that last week's pullback in valuations looked more like investors taking a breath rather than the entire trade running out of puff altogether.
“回顾历史，从铁路到互联网，每一次重大技术创新都伴随着产能的过度建设。我们凭什么认为这次会有所不同呢？”
"When you look back in time, every big new technology, from railroads to the internet, we always overbuild capacity. Why do we think this one will be any different?"
“这表明投资者可能正在采取更加审慎的态度；这并不意味着整个行业注定会失败，只是市场正在重新评估这些技术的价值。”最近的市场走势也可能说明，投资者开始更加关注科技公司日益依赖债务所带来的风险。
"It suggests investors may be taking a more balanced approach. It doesn't mean the whole thing is a disaster; there's a reassessment under way." The recent market action may also be evidence that investors are becoming more mindful of the risks associated with tech companies' growing reliance on debt.
亚马逊、微软、谷歌和苹果等公司为了建设数据中心和相关的AI基础设施，大量举债。米纳克指出，这些美国“超级巨头”在2025年的AI相关资本支出达到了4250亿美元，并预计今年将投入8000亿美元，未来几年还将投入超过1.1万亿美元。
Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Apple have gone on a borrowing binge to help pay for spending on datacentres and associated AI infrastructure. These American "hyperscalers" spent $US425bn in AI-related capital expenditure in 2025, Minack said, and are on track to invest $US800bn this year and over $US1.1tn in the next.
根据国际货币基金组织的数据，这些公司发行的企业债券如今已占全球投资级信用市场的近10%，而2024年底这一比例仅为0.5%。
Corporate bonds issued by these companies now account for nearly 10% of the global investment-grade credit market, from 0.5% at the end of 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund.
人工智能叙事日益加速的金融化，有助于解释为何国际货币基金组织上周将人工智能投资泡沫破裂列为可能威胁全球经济的三大风险之首，另外两大风险分别是快速上升的借贷成本以及重大网络攻击的威胁。
The fast-growing financialisation of the AI story helps explain why the IMF last week put the bursting of the AI investment bubble at the top of a trio of risks that could threaten the global economy, alongside rapidly rising borrowing costs and the threat of a major cyber-attack.
人工智能市场另一个令人担忧的问题是，企业之间融资安排的“循环性”日益增强——例如，一家制造商同意出资帮助建设数据中心，以换取数据中心所有者购买其微芯片。这些循环融资交易的强度取决于其最薄弱的环节。
Another cause for concern in the AI market is the growing "circularity" of funding arrangements between companies – where, for example, a manufacturer agrees to help pay to build a datacentre in return for the centre owner buying its microchips. These circular financing deals are only as strong as their weakest link.
“如果对人工智能的需求不存在，那么不仅数据中心不会建成，芯片也不需要制造，”奥尔德说。“但这对美国来说远比在澳大利亚更成问题。”在澳大利亚，资金正涌入数据中心，以满足备受吹捧的人工智能革命所带来的计算需求。澳大利亚联邦银行的经济学家估计，到2030年，该国数据中心投资将达到1500亿澳元，到2030年代中期将达到2600亿澳元，这让人联想到2010年代的矿业投资热潮。
"If the demand for AI is not there, then not only does the datacentre not get built, but also the chips don't need to be made," Auld said. "But that's far more of an issue for the US than in Australia." In Australia, money is pouring into datacentres to power the computing needs of the vaunted AI revolution. CBA economists have estimated there will be $150bn in datacentre investment in this country by 2030, and $260bn by the mid-2030s, creating echoes of the mining investment boom of the 2010s.
奥尔德表示，这笔投资是有意义的，但并非澳大利亚经济的“主要部分”。“我们不会处于任何人工智能泡沫破裂的震中。”
The investment is meaningful, but is not a "major part" of Australia's economy, Auld said. "We would not be at the epicentre of any AI bust."