
本周人工智能股票的表现还太早不能称为回调。应该把它看作一种提醒:对新技术的炒作是人类不可避免的诱惑,有时会有回报,但最终投资者会要求资本回报。
It’s too soon to call what happened this week to artificial intelligence stocks a correction. Call it instead a reminder: Hype about new technologies is an inevitable human temptation, and sometimes it pays off, but eventually investors demand returns on capital.
这就是近几天市场波动令人不安的正确看待方式。许多科技股出现大幅下跌,有时跌幅很大。这拖累了纳斯达克和标普500指数,而这些指数如今已被这些公司主导。我们的建议是,这个周末去散散步,放松一下,而不是去查看你的401(k)余额。[音频] 阿拉斯加能否帮助共和党保住参议院多数?
That’s the way to think about the disconcerting market swings of recent days. Many tech shares have taken a dive, sometimes by large percentages. That has dragged down the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 index, which has come to be dominated by those companies. Our advice is to go for a relaxing walk this weekend instead of checking your 401(k) balance. [audio] Can Alaska Save the Senate Majority for Republicans?
尽管一些大型人工智能相关公司发布了令人鼓舞的财报,而且在某些情况下,好消息甚至阻止了该公司股价的下跌,但这看起来有些反直觉。不过股票价格是前瞻性的而非回顾性的,投资者仍在努力应对关于人工智能未来的重大问题。
This seems counterintuitive in the face of encouraging earnings reports from some big AI-related companies, and in some cases the good earnings news arrested the decline in the company’s stock price. But stock prices are forward rather than backward looking, and investors still are grappling with big questions about the AI future.
人工智能将对全球经济产生深远影响。目前仍无法准确说清这些影响究竟是什么、谁会从中获利以及如何获利。全球与人工智能相关的投资估计经常超过每年1万亿美元,而且在计入其他形式的投资后——比如那些在自身业务中采用人工智能的公司——这一数字很可能被低估了。
AI will have a profound effect on the global economy. It remains impossible to say what those effects might be or who will profit from them, and how. Estimates of global AI-related investments regularly top $1 trillion per year and probably are undercounts after including other forms of investment such as the companies that adopt AI in their own businesses.
这意味着人工智能必须显著提升企业生产力,并最终创造前所未有的回报。一项最近的学术研究计算得出,仅美国的数据中心超大规模运营商(hyperscalers)就需要在2032年前每年创造相当于国内生产总值约9%的收入,才能收回其投资。
This implies that AI would need to boost to substantially boost business productivity and generate unprecedented returns eventually. One recent academic study calculated that American data-center hyperscalers alone would need to earn revenue equal to roughly 9% of gross domestic product per year by 2032 to break even on their investments.
美国筹集和分配这一私人资本的能力——包括机构投资者和企业家、法律体系和市场结构——是全球所羡慕的。但市场在下行阶段无情的纪律,正是这种特殊配方中不那么秘密的成分。
America’s ability to raise and allocate this private capital—the institutional investors and entrepreneurs, the legal system and market structure—is the envy of the world. But unforgiving market discipline on the way down is a not-so-secret ingredient in the special sauce.
随着人工智能持续发展,挑战在于重新评估风险,并相对于其他投注进行评估。这是一个持续进行的过程,在市场开盘的每一秒都在上演。
As AI continues to evolve, the challenge will be to reevaluate the risks and do so relative to other bets. It’s a continuous process that plays out every second markets are open.
本周,投资者并未完全抛弃股票,即使他们确实将部分资金重新投入债券市场。相反,他们转向了近期被忽视的行业,如消费品。道琼斯工业平均指数本周表现尚可。
Investors this week didn’t abandon equities entirely, even if they did pour some capital back into the bond market. Instead, they pivoted into recently overlooked industries such as consumer goods. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had a decent week.
这并不是要淡化潜在危险。流入科技领域的资本规模之大表明,如果投资者决定进行大规模重新评估,那么一旦启动,这一过程很可能会非常艰难。更令人担忧的是,这些投资中的很大一部分是通过债务融资的,尤其是通过不透明的私人信贷市场。信贷可能将技术重新评估转化为金融恐慌,甚至更糟。
None of this is to downplay the potential dangers. The sheer quantity of capital that has flowed into tech suggests that if and when investors decide a large-scale reappraisal is required, it is likely to be bloody. All the more so since much of this investment has been financed with debt, especially via opaque private-credit markets. Credit can turn a technological reappraisal into a financial panic or worse.
这一切对政治家和政策制定者构成挑战,即使他们正享受股市上涨带来的收益。一方面是货币因素:宽松的货币政策往往会鼓励一种信贷狂热,当这种狂热与技术革命同时发生时,尤其危险。从这个角度来看,如果科技投资者部分基于对美联储主席凯文·沃希(Kevin Warsh)将减少向 punchbowl 倒入朗姆酒的日益增长的确信而行事,那么这是一个值得欢迎的发展。
All of this poses challenges for politicians and policy makers, even as they enjoy the equity ride up. One is monetary: Loose money tends to encourage the kind of credit mania that’s especially dangerous when it coincides with a technological revolution. On this score, it’s a welcome development if tech investors are acting in part on a growing conviction that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh intends to pour less rum into the punchbowl.
另一方面是监管因素:官员必须保持警惕,关注金融体系中潜在风险可能隐藏的角落。其目标不是让所有人在任何地方都免受任何损失。而是要确保即使在市场修正期间,市场仍能有效运作,而无需依赖公共救助。嘿,我们可以做梦。
Another is regulatory, as officials must stay alert to the corners of the financial system where potential risks may lurk. The goal here isn’t to shield everyone everywhere from any loss. It is rather to ensure that markets will be able to operate effectively even in a correction and without recourse to public bailouts. Hey, we can dream.
人工智能作为一项技术是赢家,到目前为止,它一直是经济的推动力,而未带来人们所担忧的失业问题。目前正在开发人工智能的所有公司是否都会成为赢家,这是另一个问题。现在,是时候去散步了。
AI as a technology is a winner and so far has been a boon to the economy without the feared job losses. Whether all the companies currently developing AI will be winners is a different question. Now, time for that walk.