纽约，10月9日——高盛运营官约翰·沃尔德伦被广泛视为未来几年大卫·所罗门可能的继任者。目前，公司内部已有诸多猜测：谁有可能接替沃尔德伦的职位？这一变动又会引发高层人事上的哪些连锁反应？这家历史悠久的华尔街投行尚未正式启动继任程序。
不过，两位知情人士指出，除其他人选外，首席财务官丹尼斯·科尔曼以及负责银行日常运营的全球银行与市场业务联席负责人阿肖克·瓦拉德汉均被视为有望接替沃尔德伦出任运营官的人选。
NEW YORK, Oct 9 - With Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron firmly viewed as David Solomon's likely successor as CEO in coming years, speculation is already building among staff over who could take Waldron’s job and what other changes that would trigger through the bank's senior ranks. A succession process has not formally kicked off at the storied Wall Street bank. But two people familiar with the matter pointed to two key figures seen as potential candidates, among others, to replace Waldron as chief operating officer: Denis Coleman, the chief financial officer, and Ashok Varadhan, co-head of global banking & markets, a role overseeing the bank's day-to-day operations.
据这些知情人士透露，此类人事调整可能使首席财务官这一职位出现空缺，进而促使另外三位高管获得晋升机会。他们同时强调，目前所罗门的继任程序尚未正式启动。瓦拉德汉拒绝置评；科尔曼也未回应路透社的采访请求。
Such a reshuffle could put the CFO job into play, which in turn could put three executives in the spotlight for promotion, the people said of the internal speculation, stressing that no formal Solomon succession process was underway. Varadhan declined to comment, while Coleman did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
“这不过是内部人士的猜测罢了，完全不能反映高盛的实际情况，”该行全球传播主管托尼·弗拉托说道。
"This is nothing more than chattering class speculation, and nothing reflecting real facts at Goldman Sachs," said Tony Fratto, the bank's global head of communications.
由于外界对高盛未来发展方向高度关注，在线预测平台Kalshi上已有大量投注，参与者认为除科尔曼和瓦拉德汉外，还有其他人选也在运营官职位的竞争之列。
Underlining the intense focus on the firm's future direction, bets have accumulated on online platform Kalshi that other candidates besides Coleman and Varadhan are also in the running for COO.
分析人士指出，即将发生的人事变动将决定这家投资银行业巨头下一阶段的发展走向。
The looming reshuffle will set the tone for the next phase of growth at the investment banking powerhouse, analysts said.
据Dealogic数据显示，这家拥有157年历史的投行始终稳居并购顾问行业榜首；其全球投资银行业务收入也仅次于摩根大通。无论首席执行官及董事会最终选定谁来担任其他高层职位，新任领导层都将有机会为这家行业巨头注入新的发展动力。
Whoever the CEO and board choose for the other top leadership roles will be able to put their stamp on the 157-year old bank that has consistently ranked as the top advisor for mergers and acquisitions, Dealogic data shows, and that is second only to JPMorgan in global investment banking revenue.
高盛近期在SpaceX创纪录的860亿美元IPO中发挥了关键的顾问作用；截至6月，该行还负责操办了总价值超过1万亿美元的并购交易，这一业绩水平堪称任何投资银行半年内的历史最佳表现。
Goldman recently played a key advisory role in SpaceX's record $86 billion IPO and managed more than $1 trillion worth of announced M&A deals by June, marking a record pace for any investment bank within a half-year period.
高盛将于周二公布财报，届时其交易业务的表现将成为市场关注的焦点。
It will report earnings on Tuesday, when the performance of its trading unit will be in focus.
自2018年接任首席执行官以来，所罗门成功推动了高盛股价的强劲上涨。他打破了银行家与交易员之间的内部壁垒，并大幅缩减了消费金融业务规模。
Solomon has overseen a robust rally in Goldman's share price since taking the reins in 2018. He broke down internal silos between bankers and traders, and exited a big part of the consumer business.
据一位消息人士向路透社透露，所罗门预计将留任首席执行官至2028年。此前《华尔街日报》曾报道称，高盛内部曾讨论让所罗门卸任CEO一职、由首席运营官沃尔德伦接任的计划，该计划可能最早于明年实施。报道称，按照这一方案，所罗门卸任CEO后仍将担任执行董事长一至两年。
He is expected to stay on as CEO until 2028, a source told Reuters earlier after the Wall Street Journal reported that the bank had discussed a plan for Solomon to step down as CEO and be replaced with Chief Operating Officer Waldron as soon as next year. Under the plan, Solomon would remain executive chairman for one to two years after stepping down from the CEO role, the report said.
针对有关沃尔德伦接任的传闻，弗拉托此前表示，董事会时常会讨论继任事宜，但目前尚无明确的时间表。
Addressing the Waldron report, Fratto had previously said that the board regularly discusses succession, but there is no definitive timeline for it.
去年，董事会向所罗门与沃尔德伦分别提供了价值8000万美元的留任奖励计划，这些奖励将在五年后兑现；这一举措有望促使所罗门在2028年后继续留在高盛。
The board gave CEO Solomon and Waldron retention packages of $80 million each last year that vest in five years, which could give an incentive to Solomon to stay on in the firm beyond 2028.
科尔曼与瓦拉德汉各自具备独特的优势，均具备担任首席运营官的潜力。
Both Coleman and Varadhan have unique strengths they could employ as potential COO.
据一位消息人士介绍，现年52岁的科尔曼曾担任全球融资业务部门的联席负责人，在高盛期间曾负责营收类及非营收类业务的管理工作。
Coleman, 52, a former co-head of the global financing group, has overseen both revenue and non-revenue functions at Goldman, one of the sources said.
现年54岁的瓦拉德汉曾是掉期交易领域的资深交易员，30岁之前便晋升为合伙人；他目前担任高盛最核心的业务部门——银行与市场部的联席负责人，该部门贡献了全公司约75%的营收。他与业绩出色的交易顾问丹·迪斯共同执掌这一部门。
Varadhan, 54, a former swaps trader who made partner before the age of 30, co-heads banking and markets, the bank's crown-jewel division that generates about 75% of firm-wide revenue. He runs the business with Dan Dees, a prolific deals advisor.
上述消息人士还指出，科尔曼在高盛的工作经验更为全面，因而具备一定优势；不过瓦拉德汉被视为高盛不愿流失的顶尖人才。
One of the sources said that Coleman has broader experience in the firm, giving him an edge, but Varadhan is considered a top talent whom Goldman does not want to lose.
根据Kalshi平台的投注数据，瓦拉德汉成为首席运营官的概率为10%，迪斯的概率则为9%，后者与负责全球资产管理及财富管理业务的马克·纳赫曼概率相同。科尔曼并未出现在候选名单中。
Kalshi bets give Varadhan 10% odds of becoming COO while Dees has 9%, the same as Marc Nachmann, who heads global asset management and wealth. Coleman was not listed.
2011年畅销书《金钱与权力：高盛如何主宰世界》的作者威廉·科汉指出，即便沃尔德伦在未来几年内出任首席执行官并任职十年，等他卸任时高盛仍可能选择一位更年轻的高管接任。“高盛向来擅长在恰当的时机挑选合适的人选，”科汉说道，“我预计在沃尔德伦之后，接任者会是下一层级中我们目前还不熟悉的人物。”
Even if Waldron becomes CEO within the next few years and remains in the role for a decade, the bank could look to a younger executive by the time he steps down, said William Cohan, author of the 2011 bestseller "Money and Power: How Goldman Sachs Came to Rule the World." "Goldman has always been very good at finding the right guy at the right time," said Cohan. "My bet is after Waldron, it’s someone we don't know yet from the next level down," he said.
据两位知情人士透露，若科尔曼升任首席运营官，接替他出任首席财务官的候选人将主要从三位高管中产生：首席会计官希拉·弗雷德曼、首席行政官埃丽卡·莱斯利以及全球资金管理主管凯里·哈里奥。这三人目前均向科尔曼汇报工作。
If Coleman is promoted to COO, the choice to replace him as CFO will center on three executives, according to the two people familiar with the matter: Sheara Fredman, the chief accounting officer, Ericka Leslie, the chief administrative officer, and Carey Halio, the global treasurer. All three report to Coleman.
未来的高管团队肩负着带领高盛发展的重任——目前这家银行仍高度依赖资本市场与交易业务，而这些行业的周期性特征明显，远不如财富管理业务稳定可靠。
The future executive team will be tasked with steering a bank that is still largely reliant on capital markets and dealmaking, which are more cyclical businesses than durable wealth management fees.
阿格斯研究公司的银行业分析师斯蒂芬·比加尔表示：“无论谁出任新任首席执行官，都必然会被问到这个问题，因此他也需要提前准备好答案：即如何推动银行发展，从而降低对资本市场的依赖程度。”
"Any new CEO will likely be asked that question and will want to have a ready answer: how they plan to continue expanding the bank in a way that makes it less dependent on capital markets," said Stephen Biggar, bank analyst at Argus Research.