月的市场剧烈波动后，SpaceX的投资者们终于迎来喘息之机——这家由埃隆·马斯克掌管的公司股价已突破自7月份以来一直未能逾越的阻力位。
SpaceX investors are finally getting some reprieve after months of being whipsawed by volatility as the Elon Musk-led company’s stock breaks above the level it’s been stuck below since July.
本周，SpaceX的股价始终维持在160美元以上，这一价位正是该股在7月6日的收盘价，但此后便再未触及。自8月5日触及低点以来，该股在短短三个月内已累计上涨48%。周五，随着SpaceX成功获得一批关键频谱资源、得以实现“全美范围内的手机信号覆盖”，股价涨势进一步延续。
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. shares have been trading above $160 all week, a level they closed at on July 6 but hadn’t returned to since. The stock has jumped 48% in just three months after hitting a low on Aug. 5. Shares extended those gains Friday after SpaceX acquired a crucial batch of spectrum that will allow it to offer “complete phone coverage in America.”
这与6月份SpaceX首次公开募股后投资者所经历的极端波动形成了鲜明对比。当时，该股发行价为135美元，在上市最初几天便飙升至200美元以上，但到了7月下旬又骤跌至108美元，导致公司市值瞬间蒸发1.2万亿美元。而自8月份以来的反弹则已帮助公司挽回了超过7500亿美元的市值。
It’s a stark reversal from the extremely volatile trading investors endured following SpaceX’s blockbuster initial public offering in June. The shares hit the market at $135, soared above $200 in their first few days of trading and then plunged to $108 by late July, erasing $1.2 trillion in market value. The rebound since August has added back more than $750 billion in value.
彭博情报分析师乔治·弗格森指出：“这是一项长期投资，其中带有一些神秘色彩以及典型的‘马斯克式’特质，我认为这正是市场追捧该股的原因。目前有大量投资者对SpaceX充满信心。”
“This is a long play and there’s a little bit of aura and hidden-ness, you know, Elon Musk-ness in it, and I think that’s what it’s trading on,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson said. “There’s a bunch of believers in this thing.”
自8月中旬起，随着限制早期投资者抛售股票的限售期相继到期，市场上可交易的股票数量大幅增加——流通股比例从IPO时的约7.5%升至如今的33%左右。此前华尔街曾担忧限售期解除会引发抛售潮，但股价的平稳表现则表明内部人士并未急于抛售所持股份。
The stock had been trading in a tight range since mid-August, as lockups banning early investors from selling their shares expired, boosting the total float, or shares available to trade, to about 33% of the company’s outstanding shares from roughly 7.5% in the IPO. Wall Street had been concerned that the expirations would trigger a wave of selling, but the steadiness in the stock price indicates that insiders aren’t unloading their stakes.
“许多SpaceX的内部人士都希望继续持有股票，”持有SpaceX股份的拉弗·滕格勒投资公司首席投资官南希·滕格勒说道。“他们未必会在禁售期结束后立刻抛售。这家公司拥有巨大的发展潜力。”此外，9月份纳斯达克100指数进行权重调整，也对该股形成了一定的买盘支撑。由于SpaceX流通股数量增加，其在指数中的权重也随之上升，这就迫使追踪该指数的基金不得不买入更多SpaceX股票。
“A lot of the SpaceX insiders want to hang on,” said Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler, who holds SpaceX shares. “They aren’t necessarily selling into the lockup (expiration). This company has enormous potential.”In addition, the stock likely got some buying support from the rebalancing of the Nasdaq 100 Index in September, which gave SpaceX a larger weight in the index due to its increased float, meaning funds that track the gauge would have to buy more shares.
“随着股票供应量增加，指数权重也会相应提高，”已卖出IPO时所获SpaceX股票的Allspring全球投资公司投资组合经理鲍勃·格伦戴克说道。
“Supply comes on, but also index weights go up as the supply goes on,” said Bob Gruendyke, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, which has sold the SpaceX shares it held in the IPO.
上述因素共同促成了SpaceX股价在9月底开始强势上涨，而此时该公司的大型“星舰”火箭也首次成功进入轨道，这堪称一个重要里程碑。
All of which set up the shares for a breakout that started at the end of September, just as the company’s massive Starship rocket reached orbit for the first time, a key milestone.
摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯指出，IPO后的股价回调使得SpaceX成为投资太空与智能经济领域最划算的选择之一。他给予该股相当于“买入”的评级。目前该股的预期12个月市盈率仅为111倍，较7月份的540倍以上大幅回落。乔纳斯在周一发给客户的报告中还提到，若结合年度增长率进行调整，该股的估值水平则显得更为低廉。
The post-IPO selloff helped make SpaceX one of the cheapest ways to play the space and intelligence economy, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who has a buy-equivalent rating on shares. The stock is priced at 111 times earnings expected over the next 12 months, down from more than 540 times in July. And the shares look even less expensive when adjusted for year-over-year growth, Jonas wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
“我们预计未来几个月内的一系列进展将有助于投资者更清晰地认识到SpaceX在解决电力与芯片制造领域关键瓶颈方面的作用，进而推动其盈利增长与估值提升，”他写道。
“We expect developments over the next few months will help investors better appreciate the role of SPCX in addressing the critical bottlenecks of power and chip making, potentially unlocking earnings growth and multiple expansion for the stock,” he wrote.
当然，投资SpaceX这类公司也存在诸多风险。例如，该公司正计划筹集400亿美元债务，用于从英伟达采购芯片。这将是人工智能产业发展过程中规模最大的债务融资项目之一，而此时长期国债收益率正处于数十年来的高位水平。
Of course, there are risks to an investment in a company like SpaceX. For example, it’s looking to raise $40 billion in debt so it can buy chips from Nvidia Corp. That would be one of the biggest debt deals for the AI buildout, and it comes as long-dated Treasury yields are around the highest levels in decades.
这一消息导致该公司股价在最近两个交易日累计下跌6.6%，同时 SpaceX 债务的五年期信用违约互换价格也升至历史新高。
The news sent the shares down 6.6% over the last two sessions and pushed the price of five-year credit default swaps on SpaceX’s debt to a fresh high.
未来该股可能还会面临更大下行压力。本周将迎来限售股解禁期，届时公司另外7%的股份将可进入市场交易。此外，SpaceX预计将于11月发布上市后的第二份季度财报，届时还将迎来另一轮限售股解禁。
And the stock could face more pressure ahead. There’s a lockup expiration this week, in which another 7% of the company’s shares will become available to trade. Then, SpaceX is scheduled to release its second quarterly earnings report as a public company in November, alongside another major lockup expiration.
正因如此，众多投资者都试图忽略短期内的股价波动，转而关注该股的长期投资价值。
Which explains why so many investors are trying to ignore the near-term gyrations and focus on the stock’s long-term potential.
“投资 SpaceX 完全是一种赌注，”Blue Chip Daily的创始人拉里·滕塔雷利说道，“投资者必须买入并持有两三年甚至更久，不必在意股价的剧烈波动。因为从基本面来看，目前其实并无充分理由去买入 SpaceX的股票。”
“SpaceX is just a leap of faith,” said Larry Tentarelli, founder of Blue Chip Daily. “You’ve got to buy it and hold it for two, three, four years, and don’t look at the volatility. Because fundamentally there’s no reason to buy SpaceX right now.”