SpaceX 刚刚经历了忙碌的三个月。该公司以创纪录的速度将四名宇航员送往国际空间站，拓展了其移动网络频谱，据报道正考虑达成一笔 400 亿美元的债务交易以采购英伟达芯片，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示计划明年向美国每个孩子赠送股份。
It's been a busy three months for SpaceX. The company delivered four astronauts to the International Space Station in record time, expanded its mobile network spectrum, is reportedly eyeing a $40 billion debt deal to buy Nvidia chips, and CEO Elon Musk said he plans to give shares to every kid in America next year.
交易员认为，所有这些迹象都预示着该股在周二盘后发布财报后将进一步上涨。
Traders think all that means more gains for the stock after it reports earnings after the bell Tuesday.
根据 Cboe LiveVol 数据，期权做市商为财报事件定价的隐含波动约为 6%。这不及 8 月首份财报发布后 13% 跌幅的一半，那次抛售最终成为股价低点，随后两个月股价累计反弹 60%，随后又反转，过去两周最大跌幅曾达 19%。
Options market-makers are pricing about a 6% swing for SpaceX after the event, according to Cboe LiveVol data. That's less than half the 13% it erased after its inaugural report in August, a selloff that turned out to be the low for the shares, which rallied 60% the following two months before reversing before dropping as much as 19% the past two weeks.
虽然未平仓看涨与看跌合约数量大致相当，但 Barchart 数据显示，过去一周日均成交量偏向看涨合约。
While there are about as many open call contracts as puts on the stock, daily trading volume has leaned toward calls the past week, Barchart data shows.
根据 Cboe LiveVol 数据，周一共成交 110 万张合约——较 30 日均量高出 20%——其中看涨合约 66.5 万张，买入多于卖出。数据同时显示，交易员买入看涨多于看跌，卖出看跌多于买入，资金流向明显看涨，正值这家航天巨头迎来第二份财报。
Among the 1.1 million contracts traded Monday – 20% higher volume than the 30-day average – 665,000 were calls, with more bought than sold, according to Cboe LiveVol. Traders also bought more calls than puts, and sold more puts than they bought, the data show, decidedly bullish flow as the space giant heads into its second earnings.
根据 SpotGamma 数据，本周五到期最活跃的看涨合约为行权价 170 美元，需要股价上涨约 14%。月末到期的 190 美元行权价看涨合约也有显著买入，该合约报价 0.40 美元，需要 SpaceX 上涨 29% 才能盈亏平衡。
The most popular call contract for Friday expiry was the 170-strike, which needs about a 14% rally, according to SpotGamma data. There was also notable buying in the 190-strike call for month-end, a 40-cent contract that needs SpaceX to rally 29% to break even.
要实现这一涨幅，SpaceX 必须突破两个后续的股份解禁期：财报发布两天后的计划解禁，以及 10 月 26 日的另一次解禁，两者合计将释放逾 16 亿股可供出售的股份。迄今为止，这并未给股价带来明显冲击，9 月 9 日、10 日和 24 日的解禁均未对股价产生显著影响。
For that to happen, SpaceX will have to rally through two more share lockup periods: a scheduled release two days after earnings, as well as another on October 26 that together will amount to over 1.6 billion eligible shares for sale. So far that hasn't been a problem for the stock, as releases on Sep. 9, 10, and 24 had no discernible effect on the share price.
与上一季度相比，SpaceX 在本次财报发布前的隐含波动率要低得多，这一点从隐含波动幅度中便可看出。据 ThinkOrSwim 数据显示，SpaceX 周一的隐含波动率（IV）为 62，而第二季度财报发布前曾高于 110。
Implied volatility is much lower in SpaceX going into this report compared to last quarter, as reflected in the implied move. SpaceX traded with an IV of 62 on Monday, compared to above 110 before releasing second-quarter earnings, according to ThinkOrSwim.