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美国消费者新闻与商业频道

像Muse这样的AI代理可以为你购物。这对零售股意味着什么AI agents like Muse can shop for you. Here's what that means for retail stocks

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未来的个人购物助手或许根本不是人类。最新一代的人工智能助手已超越了普通聊天机器人的能力——后者虽擅长回答问题与生成内容,但如今这些以ChatGPT为代表的生成式AI聊天机器人相当于“大脑”;而在此基础上开发的新一代AI代理则可视作“身体”,能够自主为用户执行各类任务,包括购物。这些AI代理会持续运行在云端,始终保持活跃状态。

Your next personal shopper may not be a person at all. The latest breed of artificial intelligence assistants goes beyond the abilities of chatbots, which are great at answering questions and creating content. These generative AI chatbots, like ChatGPT, are the brain. These new AI agents layered on top, think of them like the body , can now autonomously perform tasks for users, including shopping. They are also persistent, always running in the cloud.

Meta Platforms于9月8日推出的个人购物助手Muse,能够搜索各大零售网站寻找优质商品、对比价格,甚至直接完成购买流程。该应用迅速走红,在苹果美国应用商店的下载排行榜上取代了ChatGPT。截至目前,Muse的下载量已突破500万次,每周活跃用户数也超过300万。自Muse发布以来,Meta的股价累计涨幅超过17%。

Meta Platforms ' new personal agent Muse, released Sept. 8, can search retail sites for the best products, compare prices, and even complete purchases. It quickly went viral, displacing ChatGPT at the top of Apple 's U.S. App Store charts. Muse has surpassed 5 million downloads, with more than 3 million weekly active users. Meta shares have surged more than 17% since the Muse launch.

从仅能为你生成内容的生成式AI,发展到能替你完成实际操作的代理式AI,这一演变趋势令众多企业及其投资者陷入深思:当消费者把购物决策权交给AI代理后,局面会如何变化?华尔街目前的初步判断是:不同行业与企业面临的挑战程度各异,部分企业反而可能从这一转变中获益。举例而言,那些靠用户懒得取消订阅、不愿比价或寻找更划算的交易而获利的企业,近几周股价均出现大幅下跌。

This evolution from generative AI (which creates something for you) to agentic AI (an agent that does something for you) raises questions for many companies and their investors. Chief among them: What happens when consumers hand over purchasing decisions to AI agents? The early read on Wall Street is that some companies and industries face steeper challenges than others — and some may actually benefit from the shift. For example, companies that benefit from customers not bothering to cancel subscriptions, compare prices, or search for better deals have taken a beating in recent weeks.

自Muse发布至本周四收盘,Planet Fitness股价下跌近12%,Booking Holdings下跌11%,SiriusXM下跌8.6%,嘉信理财也下跌了9%——这些企业均属于所谓的“消费者惰性”概念下的受影响群体。高盛将这一潜在趋势描述为从“自行搜索与购物”转向“委托AI操作并确认即可”。目前这类AI购物工具仍主要用于商品发现与推荐,但高盛预测它们最终将承担更多购物流程中的执行工作。

Since the launch of Muse through Thursday's close, Planet Fitness fell almost 12%, Booking Holdings dropped 11%, SiriusXM dropped 8.6%, and Charles Schwab lost 9% — all victims of the so-called " consumer inertia " trade. Goldman Sachs described the potential transition as moving from "search and shop" to "delegate and approve." Today's AI shopping tools are still largely used for product discovery and recommendations, but Goldman sees them eventually executing more of the purchasing process.

然而,到目前为止,投资者似乎并未对我们持有的三只零售股计入太多近期干扰因素。自Muse上线至周四收盘,TJX上涨近8%,好市多上涨约4%,亚马逊下跌1%,而同期标普500指数上涨约1.7%。完全代理式购物仍是一个较长期的前景,每家公司都有一些特点,可能有助于在技术发展过程中保护自身业务。但这些防御手段看起来截然不同,很好地展现了零售领域的横截面,以及AI购物的兴起如何既带来挑战又带来机遇。

So far, however, investors don't appear to be pricing in much near-term disruption for our three retail holdings. Since Muse's launch through Thursday's close, TJX has gained nearly 8%, Costco is up about 4%, and Amazon has slipped 1%, compared with a roughly 1.7% gain for the S & P 500 . Fully agentic shopping remains a longer-term prospect, and each company has characteristics that could help insulate its business as the technology develops. But those defenses look very different, providing a good cross-section of the retail space and how the rise of AI shopping brings both challenges and benefits.

最大的风险不是失去销售。亚马逊似乎是显而易见的颠覆目标。如果消费者可以让外部AI代理找到最好的笔记本电脑、纸巾或狗粮,而不论零售商是谁,他们可能不再需要从亚马逊。然而,亚马逊拥有小型在线零售商所没有的防御能力——巨大的规模、广泛的商品选择、快速的配送,以及一个让消费者有理由不断回来的Prime生态系统。

The biggest risk isn't losing the sale Amazon would seem like an obvious target for disruption. If consumers can ask an external AI agent to find the best laptop, paper towels, or dog food regardless of the retailer, they may no longer need to start their search on Amazon. However, Amazon has defenses that smaller online retailers don't — enormous scale, broad selection, fast fulfillment, and a Prime ecosystem that gives consumers reasons to keep coming back.

Rosenblatt分析师斯科特·德维特对CNBC表示:“亚马逊和(其他)拥有强大价值主张的公司受到的影响较小。”高盛也得出了类似结论,认为“提供有竞争力的价格、广泛的库存选择、快速配送、可信赖的消费者关系以及丰富第一方数据资产的平台,很可能处于最有利的位置。”亚马逊庞大的规模使其能够灵活地将购物者留在自己的生态系统内,而不是向外部AI代理开放其商品目录。

"Amazon and [other] companies that have that strong value proposition are less exposed," Rosenblatt analyst Scott Devitt told CNBC. Goldman reached a similar conclusion, arguing that "platforms offering compelling prices, broad inventory selection, fast fulfillment, trusted consumer relationships, and rich first-party data assets are likely to be best positioned." Amazon's massive scale has given it the flexibility to keep shoppers within its own ecosystem rather than open its catalog to outside AI agents.

值得注意的是,亚马逊已阻止Muse在其平台上直接购买产品,即使沃尔玛、Shopify和百思买等竞争对手已接纳该代理。这家电商巨头也并未置身于这一趋势之外。

Notably, Amazon has blocked Muse from purchasing products directly on its platform, even as competitors like Walmart , Shopify and Best Buy have embraced the agent. The e-commerce giant isn't sitting out the trend, either.

亚马逊拥有自己的智能购物助手——“购物版Alexa”,它能提供个性化推荐、产品对比和历史价格信息,并通过“价格提醒”和“自动购买”等功能实现自动化购物。首席执行官安迪·贾西表示,在过去一年中,已有超过3.5亿顾客使用过该功能,而活跃用户数量几乎翻了一番,第二季度与去年同期相比,互动次数更是增长了五倍多。

Amazon has its own agentic shopping assistant, Alexa for Shopping , which offers personalized recommendations, product comparisons, and price histories, and can automate purchases through features such as Price Alerts and Auto-Buy. More than 350 million customers used it over the past year, while active users nearly doubled and interactions increased more than fivefold year over year in the second quarter, CEO Andy Jassy said.

使用“购物版Alexa”的顾客平均每笔订单的支出也高出40%以上。因此,真正的担忧并非人工智能代理是否会抢走亚马逊的电商业务,而是亚马逊能否在保持其作为购物主平台地位的同时,保留那些使每笔交易更具价值的客户数据和广告收益模式。Telsey Advisory Group分析师乔·费尔德曼表示,即使最终由亚马逊完成订单履行,外部代理仍可能疏远亚马逊与其购物者之间的关系。

Customers who use Alexa for Shopping also spend more than 40% more per order on average. That's why the concern isn't whether AI agents will take away Amazon's e-commerce business. The bigger question is whether Amazon can remain the place where those purchases happen while preserving the customer data and advertising economics that make each transaction more valuable. Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joe Feldman said an outside agent could create distance between Amazon and its shoppers, even if Amazon ultimately fulfills the order.

在这种情况下,亚马逊虽然仍能获得销售收益,但可能不得不放弃部分在购物者直接与其平台互动时收集到的宝贵客户数据。广告业务则是另一个潜在的压力点。过去几年,亚马逊大力拓展广告业务,将其作为重要的利润来源。根据FactSet的数据,今年广告收入预计将达到830亿美元。然而,这一业务依赖于购物者在亚马逊平台上的搜索和浏览行为,品牌方正是通过付费推广产品来触达用户。

In that scenario, Amazon could still get the sale while surrendering some of the valuable customer data it collects when shoppers interact directly with its platform. Advertising presents another potential pressure point. In the last few years, Amazon has leaned into its advertising business as a lucrative source of profits, with advertising revenue expected to reach $83 billion this year, according to FactSet. But that business depends on shoppers searching and browsing its platform, where brands pay to promote their products.

如果外部人工智能代理越来越多地决定消费者看到和购买哪些产品,亚马逊可能会失去部分宝贵的广告机会。Devitt预计,亚马逊或许能找到其他方式来从代理驱动的购物中获利,例如在代理内部投放广告、提高卖家费用、调整Prime会员定价,或采用其他机制。

If outside AI agents increasingly determine which products consumers see and buy, Amazon could lose some of that valuable advertising opportunity. Devitt expects Amazon could find other ways to monetize agent-driven purchases, whether through advertising within agents, higher seller fees, changes to Prime pricing, or another mechanism.

不过他表示,如果未来有更多流量通过各类智能代理间接流入网站,广告收入的增长情况以及销售与营销支出的变化便是两个值得密切关注的指标。人工智能或许能让Costco的价值主张更加显而易见。一直以来,Costco的经营模式都建立在会员忠诚度、低廉价格以及吸引顾客进店消费的基础上;顾客进店后往往会购买远超预期的商品。

But he said advertising revenue growth and sales and marketing spending are two important metrics to watch if more traffic starts arriving indirectly through agents. AI could make the value proposition more obvious Costco has built its business around membership loyalty, low prices, and getting customers into its stores, where shoppers often leave with far more than they planned to buy.

如果开发出能够按照预设清单高效采购商品的AI代理,由于省去了顾客自行浏览挑选的过程,或许会抑制一部分冲动消费行为。不过这也有潜在优势:能够比价的AI代理可独立验证Costco的性价比优势。目前Costco已观察到一些积极迹象。在最近的财报电话会议上,首席财务官加里·米勒奇普透露,虽然基数尚小,但通过Gemini、Anthropic及OpenAI等大语言模型搜索后产生的销售额正以三位数速度增长。

An AI agent programmed to efficiently purchase items on a predetermined list could threaten some impulse spending by removing the browsing experience from the equation. There is, however, a potential advantage: an AI agent comparing prices could independently validate Costco's value. The warehouse club is already seeing positive signs. CFO Gary Millerchip said on the company's latest earnings call that sales originating from searches on large language models such as Gemini, Anthropic , and OpenAI are growing at a triple-digit rate, albeit from a very small base.

他还指出,这类搜索行为也凸显了Costco会员制的价值,有效提升了会员活跃度与参与度。这一点尤为值得关注,因为Costco几乎不做付费数字广告。以往公司需花钱向消费者宣传自身产品的性价比优势,如今借助能够比价的AI工具,这一工作便可由技术代劳。“在一种相对中立的环境中,人工智能为我们提供了良机,有助于确保我们的价值与品质能透明地呈现在会员面前,”米勒奇普说道。

He said the searches also highlight the value of Costco memberships and drive membership activity and engagement. That is particularly interesting because Costco does little paid digital advertising. Rather than paying to tell consumers that its products offer good value, an AI tool comparing products and prices could do some of that work for the company. "AI presents an opportunity in a sort of neutral environment for us to be able to ensure that our value and our quality shows up transparently for our members," Millerchip said.

Costco精心挑选的商品品类同样能发挥助力。公司采购人员会亲自审核上架商品,品类数量相对有限;管理层认为,这样一来当消费者借助AI进行搜索时,Costco在价格、品质及用户评价方面的综合优势便能更加凸显。当然也存在风险:智能代理可能使消费者对价格更加敏感,也会让他们更容易判断自己是否值得继续保留会员资格。正因如此,Costco维持会员忠诚度的能力就显得尤为关键。

Costco's curated assortment could help as well. Its buyers personally vet the relatively limited selection of items the company sells, which management said should allow its combination of price, quality, and customer reviews to stand out when consumers search using AI. There are risks. Agents could make consumers even more price-sensitive and make it easier to evaluate whether a membership is worth keeping. That makes Costco's ability to maintain loyalty particularly important.

这家公司2026财年第四季度的业绩表现令人鼓舞:会员续订率有所提升,高价位的高级会员套餐的购买量更是创下历史新高。高级会员的续订率通常也高于普通会员。此外,好市多正逐渐赢得年轻消费者的青睐,而这部分人群正是未来品牌忠诚度和长期价值的宝贵来源。不过问题在于,年轻顾客更倾向于在线注册会员,而线上渠道的会员流失率往往高于线下门店。

The company's fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results were encouraging, with membership renewal rates improving and higher-priced executive memberships reaching an all-time high. Executive members also tend to renew at higher rates than basic members. Costco is also gaining traction with younger shoppers, an important source of future loyalty and lifetime value. The wrinkle is that younger customers are more likely to sign up online, where memberships tend to churn at higher rates than those started in stores.

随着人工智能为消费者提供了更多工具来持续评估何处能获得最优性价比,如何留住这些新入会的年轻顾客便成了一个值得密切关注的课题。目前来看,好市多的初步实践表明,人工智能有望成为向消费者证明“为何值得花钱在此购物”的又一利器。

That makes retaining these newer customers worth watching as AI gives shoppers even more tools to continually evaluate where they get the best value. For now, however, Costco's early experience suggests AI could become another way to demonstrate why customers pay to shop there in the first place.

TJX旗下品牌T.J. Maxx与Marshalls的商品种类时常更新变化,这种特性促使消费者怀着“说不定能淘到好货”的期待走进门店——这种“寻宝体验”对人工智能而言却难以复制。富国银行分析师艾克·博鲁乔对CNBC表示:“实在找不到能帮人‘寻宝’的人工智能程序。消费者往往只是想着‘我需要买些衣服,去TJX看看能不能找到心仪的款式’。”

You can't ask an agent to find what it can't see The constantly changing assortment at TJX's brands T.J. Maxx and Marshalls encourages shoppers to visit stores without knowing exactly what they'll find — a " treasure hunt " that's difficult for an AI agent to replicate.

古根海姆分析师西蒙·西格尔则指出,消费者很可能先让人工智能满足自己的“刚需”,之后才会将其用于满足“欲望”。通过人工智能采购日常家用物品相对简单,但挑选衬衫或连衣裙这类商品则更具主观性。西格尔对CNBC说道:“购买非必需品的过程有其独特之处,带有个人色彩,也充满主观判断——比如挑选一件秋季毛衣或一双运动鞋时便是如此。”

"You really can't find an agent to find treasure," Wells Fargo analyst Ike Boruchow told CNBC. "You're like, 'I need some clothes, and I'm going to go into TJX and see if I find anything that's fun.'" Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel noted that consumers are likely to outsource "needs" to AI before they outsource "wants." An agent replenishing an everyday household item is relatively straightforward, but choosing a shirt or dress is more subjective. "There is something special.

虽然在某些方面,比如取消订阅服务,让AI代理来代劳显得再自然不过,但我认为要让AI代理完全接管服装选购流程还需要一段时间。TJX还有另一层保护机制:其销售的许多商品本身就很难被AI代理搜索到。Boruchow指出,这家折扣零售商对品牌方的价值之一就在于:它能够悄无声息地销售过剩库存,而无需在网上大肆宣传折扣信息。

There is something personal. There is subjectivity around buying discretionary items, around picking out a fall sweater, around choosing your sneakers," Siegel told CNBC. "Whereas there are certain areas like canceling subscriptions that having an agent work for you seems so obvious, I think it will be a while before it takes over the full process of buying apparel."

Siegel则认为TJX相对薄弱的电商业务反而是其优势所在。“我认为折扣零售商的竞争力恰恰源于他们没有发达的电商业务,而非与此相悖,”Siegel说道,“如果某种商品根本无法通过常规方式搜索到,AI代理又如何帮你找到呢?同样,对于那些刻意通过实体店来隐秘销售商品的商家,AI代理又能发挥什么作用呢?”就像好市多那样,更高的价格透明度甚至能强化TJX的竞争优势。

TJX has another layer of protection: much of what it sells is difficult for an AI agent to find in the first place. Boruchow said that part of the off-price retailer's value to brands is its ability to quietly sell excess merchandise without widely advertising those discounts online. Siegel sees TJX's relatively small e-commerce presence as a feature rather than a flaw. "I think off-price wins because they don't have e-commerce, not in spite of it," Siegel said.

如果顾客在TJ Maxx店内能迅速判断出某件商品的价格比网上还要便宜,那么技术非但没能消除这种“寻宝式购物”的乐趣,反而印证了这种乐趣的价值所在。正因如此,Siegel认为AI更有可能成为购物的辅助工具,而非完全取代传统购物方式。“我认为AI会成为购物的帮手,但不会成为唯一的购物途径,”他说道。为了继续发挥实体店购物的优势,TJX必须妥善调整商品结构。

"How does an agent help you find something that is not searchable in the first place, how does an agent help you shop somewhere whose intention is to sell invisibly through a store?" Like with Costco, greater price transparency could even reinforce TJX's value proposition. If a shopper standing in a TJ Maxx can quickly determine that the item in front of them is cheaper than what they can find online, technology hasn't eliminated the "treasure hunt" — it has validated the treasure.

上个季度,该公司曾表示商品组合安排欠佳,导致旗下最大的业务部门Marmaxx(旗下拥有T.J. Maxx和Marshalls品牌)业绩表现疲软。首席执行官Ernie Herrman当时称相关调整措施已经实施,且初见成效。(Jim Cramer的慈善信托基金持有AMZN、COST、META和TJX的股票。完整持股名单请参见此处。)若您加入Jim Cramer主持的CNBC投资俱乐部,便能在Jim执行交易前收到交易提醒。发出提醒后,Jim会等待45分钟才会在其慈善信托基金的投资组合中进行买卖操作。

For that reason, Siegel sees AI as more likely to complement the shopping experience than replace it. "I think it'll be a tool to shop, not the exclusive way to shop," he said. To continue to capitalize on the in-store experience, TJX must get its product mix right. Last quarter , the company said it did not, leading to softness in its biggest division, Marmaxx, which houses T.J. Maxx and Marshalls. CEO Ernie Herrman said at the time a fix was in place, and it was bearing fruit. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AMZN, COST, META, TJX. )