华尔街寄望自主 AI 智能体能为 AI 基建建设开启新的营收增长阶段。但这些机器人目前仍处于“拿业绩说话”的阶段，而在线隐私和网络安全担忧与日俱增。
Hopes are high on Wall Street that autonomous AI agents will drive a new revenue phase for the AI build-out. But these bots are still a show-me story while concerns mount about online privacy and cybersecurity.
Meta Platforms 旗下的 Muse 典型地体现了这种热情，该应用开局迅猛。Sensor Tower 向 CNBC 提供的数据显示，Anthropic 的 Claude 耗时 670 天才达到 900 万次美国下载量，而 Muse 仅用 36 天就达到了同一数字。尽管近期股价有所回落，但自 Muse 推出以来，Meta 股价已上涨 5.7%，分析师预计将带来数十亿美元的额外营收。
Meta Platforms' Muse epitomizes the excitement with the app off to a fast start. Data from Sensor Tower provided to CNBC shows that while it took Anthropic's Claude 670 days to hit 9 million U.S. downloads, it took Muse just 36 days to hit the same number. Despite a recent pullback, Meta's stock has gained 5.7% since the launch as analysts pencil in billions of additional revenue.
Meta 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格在周三的财报电话会上重点提及 Muse，称其为“我们正在构建的愿景的核心”。他表示，用户对该机器人的采用速度极快，以至于公司不得不与支付处理商 Stripe 协调提高信用额度。
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg highlighted Muse on Wednesday's earnings call, calling it "the centerpiece of our vision for what we're building." He said the bot's adoption by users was so fast that the company had to coordinate with payment processor Stripe to raise credit limits.
Muse 可能只是个人 AI 智能体新时代的先锋。OpenAI 的 Dots 和 SpaceXAI 的 Grok Bot 等应用也可能迅速崛起。更有甚者，随着它们了解你的生活习惯和个人偏好，这些智能体本应变得越来越聪明。
Muse is potentially just the vanguard for a new age of personal AI agents. Apps like OpenAI's Dots and SpaceXAI's Grok Bot could also take off. What's more, they're all supposed to get smarter as they learn about your lifestyle habits and personal preferences.
这些个人智能体的赌注很高。随着开源和免费增值 AI 产品大量涌现，它们可能会侵蚀企业级 AI 的定价和前沿实验室的 Token 定价，从而危及投资资本回报。个人智能体可能开辟新的营收来源，并成为另一大 Token 需求来源。“智能体 AI 工具正在推动这下一个 AI 基建建设时代，因为它们以一种扩大所需 AI 算力规模的方式驱动使用量，”Technalysis Research 总裁鲍勃·奥唐奈表示。“它们在执行反复重复的任务，并推动对算力的需求越来越大。”
The stakes for these personal bots are high. As open-source and freemium AI products proliferate, they could erode pricing for enterprise-scale AI and token pricing for frontier labs, endangering returns on invested capital. Personal agents could generate new revenue streams and another large source of token demand. "Agentic AI tools are what is driving this next era of AI infrastructure build-out because they are driving usage in a way that expands the amount of AI compute that's necessary," said Bob O'Donnell, president of Technalysis Research. "They're doing tasks that are being repeated over and over, and they're driving more and more demand for it."
Meta 等销售个人智能体的公司还旨在获取电商话语权，从在线卖家和交易平台获取更多销售额和费用。
Meta and others selling personal agents also aim to gain e-commerce power, capturing more sales and fees from online sellers and exchanges.
目标是通过能够充当经纪人、购物者和任务管理者的机器人来控制电子商务。花旗银行的分析师在最近的一份报告中表示：“Muse正在重塑我们在互联网上的浏览、搜索、比较和交易方式，为用户节省时间、金钱，并提高工作效率——因为这种使用方式已经成为了人们日常生活中不可或缺的习惯。”花旗银行估计，Muse在未来几年内可能为Meta带来270亿美元的收入（包括订阅费和交易费用）。
The goal: controlling e-commerce through robot operators that can act as brokers, shoppers and task managers. "Muse is reshaping how we surf, search, compare, and transact across the Internet, saving users time, money, and improving productivity as it becomes that always on, daily habit," Citi analysts said in a recent note. Muse could bring in $27 billion of revenue for Meta over the next several years through subscription and transaction revenue, Citi estimates.
虽然这些应用程序在在线购物方面展现出巨大潜力，但它们距离真正普及还有很长的路要走。虽然它们可能受到小型企业和个体商家的欢迎，但同时也对大型电子商务网站及专有的应用程序系统构成了威胁。亚马逊网站已经采取措施，限制这些第三方应用程序访问其在线商店以及那些能够促进销售的推荐系统。一位亚马逊发言人曾在9月份接受CNBC采访时表示：“我们认为，那些代表客户从其他商家进行购买的第三方应用程序应该公开透明地运作，并尊重服务提供商的决策。”
Personal agents start a new AI knife fight While the apps show promise for online shopping, they're a long way from ubiquity. While they may be welcome by small businesses and mom-and-pop sellers, they also pose threats to large e-commerce sites and proprietary application systems. Amazon.com has taken steps to limit the access of agents to their online stores and the user-oriented recommendation systems that generate additional sales. "We think it's fairly straightforward that third-party applications that offer to make purchases on behalf of customers from other businesses should operate openly and respect service provider decisions," an Amazon spokesperson told CNBC in September when the company blocked Meta's Muse.
华尔街也认为这些应用程序对苹果的App Store构成了威胁。MoffettNathanson公司的Craig Moffett在周二的一份报告中写道：“完全可以想象，人工智能应用程序会绕过App Store内的购买流程，以避免支付苹果的费用。”此外，这些应用程序还可以完全摆脱对传统应用程序界面的依赖，转而通过短信服务来执行用户指令（例如Spear Street Technology公司的Instinct应用程序）。
Wall Street also sees a threat to Apple 's App Store. "It is not a stretch to imagine that AI apps will route outside of in-app purchases to avoid paying Apple's toll," Craig Moffett at MoffettNathanson wrote in a Tuesday note. Agents could also leave application interfaces behind entirely, by being routed through text-messaging services, as Spear Street Technology's Instinct does.
Moffett解释说：“用户只需通过短信、WhatsApp或电话与Instinct进行交互，而无需使用任何传统的应用程序或网页界面；苹果无法从这种数字化交互中获取任何收益。”
"Users interact with Instinct purely via text messages, WhatsApp and phone calls without a traditional app or web dashboard. Apple has no way to monetize this digital interaction," Moffett said.
另一个重要的障碍是隐私问题、数据安全以及防范人工智能被黑客攻击的风险。
The trust factor Another major hurdle is privacy, data security, and protection from AI hacking.
由于个人智能体的运作类似于 AI 管家 —— 它们会了解你的个人习惯、购物偏好以及私生活细节 —— 因此需要大量访问你的个人数据。“存在大量风险，”倡导组织电子隐私信息中心（Electronic Privacy Information Center）的高级法律顾问 Calli Schroeder 表示。“AI 智能体可能会自行收集信息，并将其学到的内容与从数据经纪人处购买的信息相结合。因此，它能以用户未必知情的方式，极其具体地掌握你的情况。”
Since personal agents act like AI butlers — getting to know your personal habits, shopping preferences, and details of your private life — they need vast access to your personal data. "There are a huge range of risks," said Calli Schroeder, senior counsel at Electronic Privacy Information Center, an advocacy group. "You could have the AI agent collecting its own information and also combining what it learns with information it buys from data brokers. So it can get extremely, extremely specific about you in ways that I don't think users are aware of."
Schroeder 说，某些潜在的隐私泄露可能属于产品安全法范畴，检察长可依据 UDAP 法规（禁止不公平和欺骗性贸易行为法规）提起诉讼，她也承认下一届国会可能会出台更广泛的 AI 立法。
Some potential privacy breaches may fall under product safety laws that attorneys general can prosecute under UDAP statutes , Schroeder said, acknowledging the possibility of broader AI legislation coming out of the next Congress.
Meta 表示，公司构建了一个专用的基于云端的“虚拟机”来运行 Muse，正如扎克伯格周三所说，这包含“最先进的隐私和安全”措施。尽管如此，仍可能存在漏洞。研究人员最近在 Muse 中发现了一些漏洞；安全公司 Claroc 发现，用户共享的 Muse 页面可通过搜索域名轻易被发现，从而泄露“人们的个人文件和公司的内部文档”。
Meta says it built a dedicated cloud-based "virtual machine" to run Muse, including "state of the art privacy and security," as Zuckerberg put it Wednesday. Still, there may be holes. Researchers recently discovered some vulnerabilities in Muse; security firm Claroc found that user-shared Muse pages could be discovered easily through searching domain names, revealing "people's personal files and companies' internal documents."
“如果事先问我们，我们会以为收集这些资料需要真正的努力。实际上只需一次查询，”Claroc 研究人员写道。Meta 发言人告诉 CNBC，公司已“暂停此功能，以便审查该报告并考虑更改这些链接的发现方式。”
"If you had asked us beforehand, we would have guessed that gathering these would take real effort. It took one query," Claroc researchers wrote. A Meta spokesperson told CNBC that the company has "paused this functionality while we review this report and consider changes to how these links can be discovered."
此外，Meta 的数据保护做法在法律诉讼中已导致巨额罚款。新墨西哥州一名法官周三下令 Meta 因其部分数据做法支付 250 亿美元罚款。公司表示将提起上诉。
Meta's data protection practices, more broadly, have generated large fines in legal cases. The company was ordered by a New Mexico judge to pay $25 billion in penalties on Wednesday over some of its data practices. The company said it would appeal the order.
而且，个人智能体也不一定能创造经济价值 —— 如果它们只是从一个来源获取内容再转移到另一个来源。
There's no guarantee, moreover, that personal agents will add economic value -- if they just take from one source and shift it to another.
在该公司开始实现收入增长之前，它们不太可能缓解市场对人工智能相关资本支出（AI capex）和债务问题的担忧。不过，华尔街依然持乐观态度，尤其将 Muse 视为可能带来重大商业价值的创新产品。根据市场共识预测，分析师们认为 Muse 及其相关业务将推动 Meta 的收入从今年的 2550 亿美元增长到 2029 年的 4300 亿美元。
And until they start generating material revenue growth, they aren't likely to ease the market's rising anxiety about AI capex and debt. Wall Street remains bullish, though, viewing Muse in particular as a potentially new killer app. Analysts expect Muse and related revenue to help fuel revenue growth for Meta from $255 billion this year to $430 billion in 2029, according to consensus forecasts.
德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的本杰明·布莱克（Benjamin Black）在最近的一份报告中指出，Muse 使 Meta 重新回到了行业发展的前沿；他继续看好该公司的股价，并维持 820 美元的目标价。目前，市场更关注人工智能相关资本支出的增加、债务水平的上升以及股票发行情况——这些因素导致 Meta 的股价在周三即便发布了强劲的财报后仍下跌了 6%。
Deutsche Bank's Benjamin Black said Muse has put Meta "back in the frontier discussion," according to a recent note, maintaining a buy on the stock and $820 target. For now, markets appear more concerned about rising AI capex, debt levels and equity issuance — reasons why Meta's stock slumped 6% Wednesday even after a solid earnings report.