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彭博社

伯纳姆的高级官员就经济困境互相推诿Burnham’s Senior Officials Are Trading Blame Over Economic Pain

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安迪·伯纳姆 摄影师:克里斯·拉特克利夫/彭博社Andy Burnham Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

上周,安迪·伯纳姆在党内大会的演讲掀起轩然大波,最后他承诺将重新为国家注入团结精神。等他走下舞台时,他似乎还完成了一项更难的任务:让党内重归团结。

Burnham ended a barnstorming speech at his party conference last week by pledging to restore a spirit of unity to the country. By the time he walked off stage he seemed to have succeeded in something much harder: restoring unity to his own party.

但下周,威斯敏斯特的议员们将从休会中返回,重新投入政府工作。与此同时,幕后也开始出现高级行政官员之间紧张关系的初步迹象。据熟悉此事的人士称,在伊朗战争对英国经济造成巨大冲击的背景下,内阁成员们正相互指责,争论如何应对这些逆风挑战。

But next week Westminster MPs are back from recess to the business of government, and behind the scenes the first evidence of tensions between senior administration figures has started to emerge. Against a backdrop of the Iran War’s outsized impact on the UK economy, cabinet members are trading recriminations about how to navigate the headwinds, according to people familiar with the matter.

除了伯纳姆位于唐宁街10号的办公室外,财政大臣约翰·希利、外交大臣埃德·米利班德和国防大臣韦斯·斯特廷也都成为官员批评的对象,因为他们尚未提出短期计划来解决政府面临的问题——从伊朗和乌克兰的战争,到他们共同推高的通货膨胀和能源账单。

Alongside Burnham’s 10 Downing Street office, Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband and Defense Secretary Wes Streeting have each been the target of criticism from officials over the absence of a near-term plan to address the government’s problems: from wars in Iran and Ukraine, to the inflation and energy bills they’ve helped increase.

这使得希利本月晚些时候即将推出的预算案在规模和雄心上受到质疑。官员们担心,该预算案如今已成为检验伯纳姆能否维持其“蜜月期”的关键试金石。

That’s put the scale and ambition of Healey’s budget later this month into question, with officials nervous that it’s now become a key test of whether Burnham can sustain his honeymoon.

一位政府高级官员表示,有时,政府内部人士似乎已经开始进行预防性的相互指责,将未来可能出现的困难归咎于同事。

At times, figures in the his government have appeared to take part in a preemptive blame game, already attributing responsibility to colleagues for the difficulties coming down the track, according to a senior government official.

希利是伯纳姆出人意料地选中的经济负责人,他如今已成为批评的焦点,正如那些深陷预算谈判的财政大臣通常一样。这位前国防大臣正面临两难的境地:他尚未说服伦敦金融城的商界人士认可其经济能力,同时工党内部也对他计划安抚债券市场、并在本月晚些时候推出一项以财政稳定为重点的低调支出方案施加了压力。

Healey, Burnham’s surprise choice to run the economy, has become a weathervane for criticism, as chancellors locked in budget negotiations often are. The former defense secretary is being pulled in two different directions: he has yet to persuade City of London executives of his economic credentials, while there is pressure on him from within Labour over his plan to keep bond markets on side and unveil a low-key spending program focused on fiscal stability later this month.

据熟悉此事的人士透露,唐宁街的一些幕僚私下里正推动预算案做出更多调整,以呼应唐宁街10号(首相府)所传达的“积极作为”叙事。他们要求匿名,以便讨论私下谈话。一位官员表示,预算案必须讲述一个故事:政府将如何通过清晰且能立即见效的政策,带领国家度过充满挑战的冬季。

Some Downing Street aides are privately agitating for the budget to do more to reflect the can-do narrative emanating No. 10, people familiar with the matter said, asking for anonymity to discuss private conversations. It has to tell a story about how the government is going to get the country through a challenging winter with clear policies that make an immediate difference, according to one official.

约翰·希利John Healey

希利的支持者则将近期的批评视为政治常态。其中一人称,希利并非伯纳姆核心团队中几位成员的首选,而一些批评者可能怀有在下次选举前取代他在财政部职位的野心。

Healey’s supporters dismissed recent criticism as something that comes with the territory. One said he wasn’t the favored choice of several in Burnham’s top team, and some of his critics may harbor ambitions to replace him in the Treasury before the next election.

另一些人则认为,缺乏具有变革意义的政策责任在于唐宁街10号。官员们表示,伯纳姆一直专注于两个关键时刻:上个月在利物浦向工党年度大会发表的演讲,以及计划于12月推出的十年规划。这两项计划都高度聚焦于未来,而关于老年护理的激进政策以及与欧盟更紧密关系的举措,最早也要等到2029年中期举行的下次选举之后才会实施。

Others argue it’s No. 10 that’s responsible for a lack of game-changing policies. Officials said Burnham has been preoccupied with two set-piece moments: his speech to Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool last month and a 10-year plan slated for December. Both are focused heavily on the future, with bold policies on elder care and closer ties with the European Union only due to be implemented after the next election, due by mid-2029 at the latest.

与此同时,伯纳姆办公室采取了一项策略,即接连宣布一系列小规模的政策调整,以给予民众他们所谓的“喘息空间”。例如,在谷歌地图上添加燃油价格对比功能以方便驾车者,以及对家庭电费进行小幅减税。据官员称,每个政府部门都被要求每周推出一项小规模“零售式”政策。

In the meantime, Burnham’s office has carried out a strategy of announcing a drumbeat of small policy changes to give people what they call “breathing space,” such as putting fuel-price comparisons on Google Maps to help motorists, and a mini-tax cut on household electricity bills. Each government department has been tasked with producing a weekly small-scale “retail” policy, officials report.

一些部长私下对这种做法提出了质疑,警告称,这些看似零碎的宣布可能会激怒选民。其中一人表示,伯纳姆在宣布一些容易见效的举措的同时,也阐述了更长远的愿景,值得肯定;但两者之间仍存在空白,缺乏能够在本届议会任期内实施的影响力较大的政策。

Some ministers have privately questioned this approach, warning it risks irritating voters with announcements that seem piecemeal. One said Burnham should be praised for articulating a longer-term vision at the same time as announcing some easy wins, but that there was a gap in between for impactful policies that could be implemented during this parliament.

“政府永远不缺可以做的有益小事,其中许多甚至属于良好政策。但‘我们理解’这类干预措施若像传送带一样源源不断,就可能会削弱它们本应服务的治理目标,”工党增长小组创始主任马克·麦克维蒂表示。

“Government will never run out of useful little things to do, and plenty are good policy. But an endless conveyor belt of ‘we get it’ interventions risks diluting the governing project they’re meant to serve,” said Mark McVitie, who was founding director of the Labour Growth Group.

伯纳姆的盟友驳斥了“他本届议会的政策缺乏吸引力”的说法,并指出他在党代会上曾宣布将帮助英国年轻人实现购房。

Burnham’s allies reject the suggestion his policies for this parliament are uninspiring, pointing to an announcement he made at conference about helping young Britons get on the housing ladder.

一些官员认为,面对美国与以色列在伊朗的持续冲突,他们能采取的手段十分有限。政府与英格兰银行的政策制定者一样,将即将到来的经济冲击归咎于这场冲突——尽管不像行长安德鲁·贝利那样直言不讳。

Some officials argued there were limited levers they could pull in the face of the ongoing US-Israeli war in Iran. The government, like Bank of England policymakers, blames it for the coming economic hit — albeit not quite so subtly as Governor Andrew Bailey did.

另一些人则敦促伯纳姆、米利班德和斯特林在伊朗问题以及俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争上发挥更积极的领导作用,并警告称,这两个问题都进展有限,而这些部长也几乎没有提出解决冲突的具体方案。

Others urged Burnham, Miliband and Streeting to play more of a leadership role on both Iran and Russia’s war in Ukraine, warning that there had been limited progress on either front, and few ideas from those ministers about how to resolve the hostilities.

米利班德的外交政策迄今主要集中在通过制裁约旦河西岸定居点来硬化英国对以色列的立场,这一政策在工党内部获得了赞赏。不过,官员们表示,这并不会改变英国的生活成本问题,而且外交大臣或许正将更多精力投入到寻找解决伊朗战争的外交方案上。

Miliband’s foreign policy has so far focused on toughening Britain’s stance against Israel by imposing sanctions on West Bank settlements, a policy that won plaudits within Labour. However, officials said that would make no difference to the cost-of-living in Britain, and that the foreign secretary could be putting more effort into finding a diplomatic solution on the Iran war.

两名海湾地区官员也表达了类似看法。他们告诉彭博社,希望米利班德和斯特林都能继续推动所谓的“多国海上任务”,以保障霍尔木兹海峡的安全——这一点与伯纳姆政府不同,其前任政府曾更频繁提及该议题;此外,他们还希望英国能在保护地区盟友免受攻击方面发挥更大作用。

That sentiment was shared by two Gulf officials who told Bloomberg they hoped both Miliband and Streeting would continue to push for the so-called multinational maritime mission aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz, which the Burnham government has not tended to talk about — unlike its predecessors — as well as a greater role for Britain in defending regional allies from attacks.

乌克兰紧急服务人员在基辅遭到俄罗斯导弹袭击后奋力灭火Ukrainian emergency service workers fight fires following a Russian missile strike in Kyiv

官员们对领导层感到失望的另一个领域是乌克兰。一位官员表示,随着乌克兰遭受俄罗斯日益升级的袭击,过去一周已有数十名平民丧生,但伯纳姆、米利班德和斯特林尚未在获得基辅所需的防空支持方面取得明显进展,而这项支持是冬季的首要任务。

Another area where officials are frustrated with their leadership is Ukraine. As the country comes under escalating attack from Russia, with dozens of civilians killed in the last week, Burnham, Miliband and Streeting have not yet had much success in securing air defense support for Kyiv, a top priority for the winter, an official said.

他们补充说,这三位部长前往乌克兰表达支持固然值得欢迎,但英国必须兑现已向总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基作出的承诺,帮助乌克兰度过寒冬。

It was welcome that those three ministers had traveled to Ukraine to show support, but the UK needs to deliver on the promises they’ve made President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to help it through the winter, they added.

一个关键挑战是,尽管伯纳姆上个月在纽约与总统唐纳德·特朗普的首次会晤看似顺利,但据熟悉此事的人士透露,与美国的私下沟通比公开表现的要困难得多。此外,美国因恐怖威胁而从英国一处空军基地撤走轰炸机,进一步加剧了紧张关系。英国官员警告称,此举可能助长伊朗和俄罗斯发动更多破坏性袭击。

A key challenge is that, despite Burnham’s seemingly positive first meeting with President Donald Trump in New York last month, private conversations with the US have been more difficult than publicly apparent, according to people familiar with the matter. They were further strained when the US removed its bombers from an English airbase following a terror threat, which British officials warned could embolden Iran and Russia to carry out more sabotage attacks.

目前,选民们正逐渐对伯纳姆产生好感,自他接替基尔·斯塔默以来,其支持率已上升了10个百分点。然而,曾损害上一任首相声誉的全球性问题,或许仍会降临到他的继任者身上——并最终反噬国内。

For now, voters are warming to Burnham, and he is approaching a 10-point poll bounce since replacing Keir Starmer. But the same global problems that wounded the last prime minister may yet come for his successor — and then rebound at home.