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工党的两位财政专家都值得一听Labour's Finance Gurus Are Both Worth Listening to

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工党应当同时听取吉姆·奥尼尔和安迪·霍尔丹的意见。Labour should listen to both Jim O’Neill and Andy Haldane.

当安迪·伯纳姆在夏季竞逐英国首相职位时,他拉拢了两位金融界重量级人物为其背书——前保守党部长、高盛集团前高管吉姆·奥尼尔,以及前英格兰银行首席经济学家安迪·霍尔丹。如今,伯纳姆即将迎来上任100天,并将于周三发布其首份预算案,他最好听取这两位前顾问的警告:英国的核心问题——增长疲软、公共开支失控、债务飙升——依然悬而未决。

When Andy Burnham sought the UK premiership in the summer, he corralled two finance heavyweights to bolster his credentials — Jim O’Neill, an ex-Conservative minister and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. alumnus, and former Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane. As he marks 100 days in office today and ahead of his first budget on Wednesday, Burnham would do well to heed his erstwhile advisers’ warnings that Britain’s central problems — weak growth, spiraling public spending and soaring debt — remain unaddressed.

这两人在伯纳姆2017年成功担任曼彻斯特市长期间进入其视野,曾与他合作引入私人资本,将一座疲惫、破败的北方城市转变为繁荣之地。在竞选首相期间,伯纳姆借用二人的资历,以安抚因其那句臭名昭著的宣言——经济不应“受制于债券市场”而感到不安的投资者。出乎意料的是,7月伯纳姆入主唐宁街10号时,奥尼尔和霍尔丹均未随行入阁。

The pair had come into Burnham’s orbit during his successful tenure as mayor of Manchester from 2017, working with him to attract the private finance that turned a tired, dilapidated Northern city into a boomtown. As he campaigned to become prime minister, Burnham enlisted their bona fides to reassure investors spooked by his infamous declaration that the economy shouldn’t be “in hock to the bond markets.”Despite expectations, neither O’Neill nor Haldane entered 10 Downing Street alongside Burnham in July.

关于原因,各方说法不一:霍尔丹和奥尼尔均坚称并非被拒,而是决定不愿放弃其他项目以进入政府工作。无论实情如何,二人在伯纳姆执政初期似乎均对他失去了热情;霍尔丹尤其迅速转变为一位不那么友善的批评者,直指经济学是首相的盲点。

Recollections may vary about the reasons: Both Haldane and O’Neill insist they weren’t spurned, but decided they didn’t want to give up other projects in order to work in government. Whatever happened, both appeared to cool on Burnham during his first months in office; Haldane in particular swiftly became a not-so-friendly critic, describing economics as the PM’s blind spot.

私下里,一些亲政府人士指责霍尔丹心怀不满,并称他迷上了因其犀利言论而获得的媒体关注,例如他推测新政府可能是“一个拥有更好TikTok视频的传统增税开支社会主义政府”。仅在过去一周,霍尔丹就建议政府在开支问题上要“束手束脚”,声称英国“接近被征税至极限和借贷至极限”,并表示伯纳姆无法靠“氛围编程”实现增长。

Privately, some close to government accuse Haldane of sour grapes, adding that he’s developed a liking for the media attention he garners from his colorful salvos, such as his musing that the new administration may be a “traditional tax-and-spend socialist government with better TikTok videos.”In the past week alone, Haldane has advised the government to put on a “chastity belt” with regard to spending, has claimed Britain is “close to being taxed out and maxed out,” and has said Burnham can’t “vibe-code” his way to growth.

奥尼尔表现得更为审慎。此前他曾建议财政大臣约翰·希利无视左翼工党议员征收财富税的呼吁,并将首相“让每个邮政编码区都实现增长”的雄心称为“疯狂”,而在最近几周,他似乎重新赢得了财政大臣的倾听。希利似乎采纳了奥尼尔的警告,没有将资本利得税与所得税税率拉平——这一提议得到包括国防大臣韦斯·斯特里廷和第一国务大臣路易丝·海格在内的内阁同僚支持。

O’Neill has been more circumspect. Having advised Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey to ignore calls from left-wing Labour lawmakers for wealth taxes and describing the PM’s ambition to achieve “growth in every postcode” as “lunacy,” in recent weeks he seems to have regained the chancellor’s ear. Healey appears to have listened to O’Neill’s warning not to equalize capital gains and income taxes, a proposal supported by cabinet colleagues including Defence Secretary Wes Streeting and First Secretary Louise Haigh.

奥尼尔还赞同一项广受预期的计划,即在预算中预留的财政缓冲空间比希利的前任雷切尔·里夫斯去年预留的要少,或许低至120亿英镑(约合160亿美元)。

And O’Neill approves of a widely anticipated plan to include less fiscal headroom in the budget than Healey’s predecessor Rachel Reeves reserved last year, perhaps down to as little as £12 billion ($16 billion).

奥尼尔似乎重回核心圈子,这是好事。但无论两人之间存在何种过节,希利也应当听取霍尔丹的意见。

It’s good that O’Neill appears to be back in the fold. But whatever the bad blood between them, Healey would do well to listen to Haldane too.

外界预期这将是一个小规模预算,旨在安抚市场、维持对这届尚属新成立政府的信心。正如我的同事米希尔·夏尔马所写,希利寻求的“不是修复,而是安抚”。然而,考虑到伯纳姆上任时言辞的分量——他承诺领导一届变革型政府,终结数十年的经济低迷——预算前吹风会上透露的渐进式举措,如为小企业削减繁文缛节、保护贫困养老金领取者免受所得税影响,都将显得严重不足。

The expectation is that this will be a small-scale budget, designed to soothe the markets and maintain confidence in this still newish administration. As my colleague Mihir Sharma has written, Healey is seeking “not repair but reassurance.”But given the scale of Burnham’s rhetoric on taking office — his promise to lead a transformative government ending decades of economic malaise — incremental moves announced in pre-budget briefings such as trimming red tape for small businesses and protecting poorer pensioners from income tax will fall woefully short.

从长远来看,财政大臣需要解决高额政府借贷问题,这使得其他一切都变得更加困难,从实现政府的国防开支目标,到为伯纳姆雄心勃勃且值得称赞的建立全面国家护理服务的提议提供资金。正如霍尔德恩所主张的,要削减最近突破3万亿英镑的债务堆积,需要进行规模巨大的福利改革,这将让伯纳姆所属的中左翼工党议员感到不适——请记住,正是其前任基尔·斯塔默无法迫使议会通过大幅削减开支,最终导致了他的下台。这些压力依然存在:英国用于偿还债务利息的支出多于教育支出。

Longer term, the chancellor needs to tackle the high government borrowing that makes everything else so much harder, from meeting the government’s defense-spending targets to funding Burnham’s laudably ambitious proposal to launch a comprehensive national care service. As Haldane has argued, reducing a debt pile that recently surpassed £3 trillion requires welfare reform on a scale that lawmakers in Burnham’s left-of-center Labour party will find uncomfortable — remember it was his predecessor Keir Starmer’s inability to force substantial cuts through Parliament that ultimately led to his demise. Those pressures still exist: The UK spends more servicing its debt than it does on education.

周三的声明已被一些人描述为一份将许多经济挑战“踢给未来”的“预算”。关于首相府重点项目的资金来源,包括将国防开支提高至国内生产总值的3.5%,更多细节可能会在几周后出台的所谓“十年计划”中,或作为春季拟定的支出审查的一部分公布。但拖延不能无限期继续;迟早财政大臣必须拿出实招,否则当前政府将再次沦为政治家们许诺宏大、兑现渺小的又一例证。

Wednesday’s statement is already being described by some as a "budget" that kicks many of the economic challenges down the road. Some more details about where the money will be found for No. 10’s pet projects, including raising defense spending to 3.5% of gross domestic product, may come in a so-called 10-year plan that’s due in a few weeks, or as part of a spending review penciled in for the spring. But delay can’t continue indefinitely; at some point the chancellor will have to come up with the goods, or risk the current government proving yet another case of politicians promising big and delivering small.

希利和伯纳姆应开始倾听他们那位倔强的前顾问的意见。霍尔德恩说得没错:政府必须削减开支,并规划出降低英国债务水平的路径,以实现首相承诺的变革。

Healey and Burnham should start listening to their truculent former adviser. Haldane is right: The government must cut spending and chart a course to reducing Britain’s indebtedness to achieve the transformation the prime minister has promised.

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