围绕众议院议长迈克·约翰逊（R-La.）政治前景的问题正成为焦点，因为他暗示如果共和党在11月失去众议院控制权，他可能会返回路易斯安那州。随着选举日的临近，共和党正面临严峻的政治逆风，民主党试图利用选民对经济的不满以及特朗普总统低迷的支持率。共和党正捍卫微弱的众议院多数席位，容错空间极小，而民主党正瞄准全国各地的竞争选区。
Questions surrounding Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) political future are in the spotlight after he floated the possibility of returning to Louisiana if Republicans lose the House in November. The GOP is facing harsh political headwinds ahead of Election Day, as Democrats seek to capitalize on voter frustration over the economy and President Trump’s low approval ratings. Republicans are defending a narrow House majority, leaving little room for error as Democrats target competitive districts across the country.
Decision Desk HQ预测，民主党有望在明年重新夺回众议院。如果民主党实现夺权，约翰逊将失去议长职务，共和党将不得不面对关于其领导层和党的方向的质疑。一位要求匿名的共和党议员对《The Hill》表示，一些共和党人可能会寻求一位愿意制衡特朗普政府的领导人，如果民主党翻转众议院的话。他说：“我在选区里一直听到这种声音。我们想要制衡。我们不想要橡皮图章。”
Decision Desk HQ forecasts that Democrats are favored to win back the House next year. A Democratic takeover would cost Johnson his Speakership and force Republicans to reckon with questions about their leadership and the party’s direction. One GOP lawmaker, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to The Hill, said some Republicans could seek a leader who is willing to serve as a check on the Trump administration if Democrats flip the House. “I hear it all the time in the District. We want a check and balance. We don't want a rubber stamp," the lawmaker said, adding that they think this will "hurt" the party in the election.
他补充说，他们认为这“会伤害”党在选举中的前景。约翰逊是总统的坚定盟友，他一直在努力维持其微弱的多数优势，同时应对党内反复出现的分歧，包括在政府预算和伊朗战争问题上的冲突。“天要是真让我们失去这个多数，不管是什么情况，我不知道我人生的下一章会是什么，”约翰逊在本周早些时候接受福克斯新闻采访时说。
Johnson, a staunch ally of the president, has worked to hold his slim majority together while contending with repeated division within his conference, including clashes over government funding and the Iran war. “Heaven forbid, if we lose this majority or whatever, I don’t know what my next chapter of life is,” Johnson told Fox News in an interview this past week.
“如果上帝感动我们的心，告诉我们应该，你知道，回到我的家乡什里夫波特开一个草坪生意，我会以同样的热情去做。我的意思是，我只想在上帝和国家面前发挥我最高和最好的用途。”他的言论在华盛顿迅速发酵，以至于他的发言人兰斯·特罗弗立即驳斥了约翰逊将离开国会山的任何猜测。
“If God moves on our hearts and says we should, you know, go back to my hometown of Shreveport and start a lawn business, I’ll do that with equal fervor. I mean, I just want to be of my highest and best use to God and to my country.”His remarks quickly reverberated through Washington, so much so that his spokesperson, Lance Trover, dismissed any speculation that Johnson would leave Capitol Hill.
“关于议长因为他敢于猜测自己在草坪护理业务中的潜在未来而引发的所有华盛顿特区的猜测，真是太好笑了，”特罗弗在社交平台X上写道。“我不认为他会做不好，但让这件事掩盖今早宣布的巨额筹款数字，或者掩盖他为维持多数党地位而进行的疯狂旅行安排，这简直就是在刻意制造一个虚构的叙事。”然而，一些共和党议员和助手告诉《The Hill》，如果该党在中期选举中遭受重大损失，可能会有人推动支持除约翰逊以外的其他人担任领导人。
“All the DC speculation about the Speaker because he dared to speculate about his potential future in the lawn care business is hilarious,” Trover wrote on the social platform X. “Not that I believe he’d be bad at it, but allowing it to overshadow the massive fundraising numbers announced this morning or the insane travel schedule he’s doing to keep the majority seems to be nothing short of trying to drive a contrived narrative.”Still, some GOP lawmakers and aides told The Hill that there could be a potential push to support someone else as leader besides Johnson if the party suffers major losses in the midterms.
“我认为迈克本来可以做得更好，但问题不只在他一个人身上，”同一位众议院议员说。“这是整个领导团队的问题。”他补充说，约翰逊的言论并没有让他感到“震惊”，并指出，前共和党众议院议长保罗·瑞安（R-威斯康星州）在民主党于2018年中期选举中夺回众议院控制权之前几个月就宣布了他的退休计划。与此同时，一名共和党工作人员表示，如果共和党下个月以大幅差距输掉选举，“将会有一场明显的撤退。”
"I think Mike could have done a better job, but it wasn't just him," the same House member said. "It’s the whole leadership team." He added that he wasn’t “shocked” by Johnson’s remarks, noting that former GOP House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) announced he was going to retire months before Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections. A GOP staffer, meanwhile, said that if Republicans lose next month by a large margin "there will be a clear retreat.”
“我可以想象会有更多人推动其他人选，”该工作人员补充道，并指出共和党目前在选举上已经花费了数百万美元。共和党策略师艾米·科赫告诉《The Hill》，议长重返基层岗位可能很困难。此外，刚卸任议长的议员在私营部门往往也有更多机会。然而，她指出，如果民主党夺回众议院，约翰逊有可能继续保持议长职位，鉴于他“非同寻常”的党内领导人之路。
“I would imagine there to be more of a push for someone else," the staffer added, noting the millions of dollars spent by the GOP on the election so far. GOP strategist Amy Koch told The Hill it can be hard for a Speaker to return to the rank and file. There also tend to be more opportunities in the private sector for members fresh out of the Speakership. Yet, she noted, if Democrats flip the House, it's possible Johnson keeps the gavel given his "unusual" ascension to lead the party.
“约翰逊议长的上台实际上是在一种妥协的情况下发生的，”她说，并补充说，如果共和党失去多数党地位，党团可能“很乐意让他继续留任”。“其中一些因素将影响他决定是否离开，”科赫得出结论。还有特朗普因素。
“Speaker Johnson came in under, really, a compromise situation," she said, adding that the conference could be "happy to have him stay" should the GOP lose its majority. "Some of that will play into whether he decides to go or not," Koch concluded. There’s also the Trump factor.
总统可能会发表意见，敦促共和党人团结在约翰逊身后，支持他成为少数党领袖，尤其是考虑到他们之间密切的工作关系以及这位路易斯安那州共和党人在国会中的亲特朗普记录。尽管如此，一些共和党工作人员曾提出众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯（R-La.）和众议院司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹（R-Ohio）作为少数党领袖的潜在人选，以防共和党失去众议院控制权。
The president could weigh in and urge Republicans to rally behind Johnson as minority leader, particularly given their close working relationship and the Louisiana Republican's pro-Trump track record in Congress. Still, some GOP staffers floated House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as contenders for minority leader if Republicans lose the House.
八月份，斯卡利斯回避了《Punchbowl News》关于他是否会竞选该职位的问题。一位助手指出，整个共和党团体“喜欢”约翰逊，并推测他与乔丹的个人友谊可能会影响这位俄亥俄州共和党人的政治前景。“我不知道……如果他们失去众议院……吉姆·乔丹是否会介入，而迈克·约翰逊是否会退居二线，”他们继续说道。另一位共和党议员将约翰逊描述为“一位非凡的议长”。
In August, Scalise dodged a question from Punchbowl News about whether he would seek the post. One aide noted that the Republican conference at large "likes" Johnson and speculated that his personal friendship with Jordan could factor in to the Ohio Republican's political future. "I don't know if ... they lost the House if ... Jim Jordan would then step in, and Mike Johnson would step aside," they continued. A different GOP lawmaker described Johnson as an "extraordinary Speaker."
“我认为没有人能比他做得更好，”他们补充道。一位工作人员告诉《The Hill》，关于议长政治未来的讨论“纯属噪音”，而另一位助手则表示，约翰逊“对他的思考保持透明”这一点“很好”。约翰逊方面则坚持认为，他将成为下一届国会的议长。“我不打算谈论我们未能赢得众议院的情况，因为我专注于赢得众议院，”他在接受福克斯新闻采访时被问及是否会竞选少数党领袖时如此说道。
"I don't think anyone could have done a better job than he has done,” they added. A staffer told The Hill that chatter about the Speaker's political future "is pure noise," while another aide said it's "nice" Johnson has been "transparent" on his thinking. Johnson, for his part, maintained that he would be the Speaker of the next Congress. “I’m not going to talk about the scenario where we don’t win the House, because I am laser-focused on winning the House,” he told Fox News when asked whether he would run for minority leader.