中国内存芯片制造商长鑫存储（CXMT）不仅在国内市场，而且在海外也具有潜力，分析师表示。全球内存价格上涨和行业供应收紧为CXMT提供了海外扩张的机遇，CLSA分析师在周四发布的一份报告中表示，他们首次覆盖上海上市股票并给出跑赢大盘评级。他们表示，CXMT按比特出货量计算的全球市场份额有望明年达到14%，而去年仅为9%，2026年为12%。"
China's memory chip maker CXMT has potential not just in its home market, but abroad as well, analysts said. Rising memory prices and tightening industry supply globally give CXMT expansion opportunities overseas, CLSA analysts said in a report Thursday initiating coverage of the Shanghai-listed stock with an outperform rating. They said CXMT's global market share by bit shipment could reach 14% next year, up from just 9% last year and 12% in 2026.
尽管仍落后于全球前三大供应商，但CXMT的快速增长凸显了其市场渗透的加速和行业影响力的提升。"CLSA对中国内存企业的估值框架以台积电（TSMC）为基准，因为它"反映了因技术进步、产能扩张和持续的终端市场需求而受益的行业领导者所获得的溢价，这与CXMT相符，因为CXMT是中国排名第一的DRAM IDM（集成器件制造商）。"
"While still trailing the top three global suppliers, CXMT's rapid growth underscores its accelerating market penetration and growing industry relevance." CLSA's valuation framework for the Chinese memory player uses TSMC as a benchmark, as it "reflects the the premium assigned to industry leaders benefitting from technology advancement, capacity expansion and sustained end-market demand, which suits CXMT as CXMT is China's No.1 DRAM IDM [integrated device manufacturer]."
他们给出的目标价为84.70元人民币（12.64美元），较周五收盘价上涨超过60%。该股票在周四（中国大陆近一周长假后的首个交易日）先是下跌，随后收盘上涨近1%。假期前，伯恩斯坦分析师在九月下旬首次覆盖CXMT，给出跑赢大盘评级和70元目标价。尽管他们指出美国对该芯片公司获取部分生产工具的限制带来的风险，但他们也指出CXMT仍取得了显著进展。
They have an 84.70 yuan ($12.64) price target, up more than 60% from where shares closed Friday. The stock closed nearly 1% higher after tumbling Thursday , the first trading day following a nearly one-week long public holiday in mainland China. Ahead of the holiday, Bernstein analysts in late September initiated coverage of CXMT with an outperform rating and a 70 yuan price target. While noting the risk from U.S. restrictions to the chip company's access to some production tools, they pointed out CXMT has still made significant progress.
至于市场需求，伯恩斯坦分析师预计外国公司可能会在销往美国以外地区的个人电脑、移动设备和消费电子产品中使用CXMT的DRAM内存芯片。伯恩斯坦报告引用Gartner数据称，这使得CXMT有机会仅凭中国和美国以外的需求，就能在全球市场中额外捕获10%以上的份额。报告称，仅凭中国市场，CXMT已经有机会捕获全球DRAM需求的20%以上。
As for market demand, the Bernstein analysts expect foreign companies may use CXMT's DRAM memory chips in products such as personal computers, mobile devices and consumer electronics sold outside the U.S. That gives CXMT the opportunity to capture an additional 10%-plus share of a global market just based on demand from outside China and the U.S., the Bernstein report said, citing Gartner figures. CXMT already has the opportunity to reach over 20% of the global DRAM demand with just the China market, the report said.
许多中国制造的产品最终会流向海外。"许多人认为地缘政治顾虑会让CXMT的内存仅限于中国使用，"分析师们表示。"但我们首先要指出的是，中国OEM（原始设备制造商）将把CXMT的内存安装到其终端产品中，而这些终端产品将面向海外客户销售。此外，我们的调查也一致表明，外国PC、智能手机及消费类OEM总体上可以接受在中国制造的内存被用于全球销售的产品中，可能除了美国以及政府或数据中心AI等敏感领域之外。"
Many of those China-made products often end up overseas. "Many assume geopolitical concerns will keep CXMT's memory only in China," the analysts said. "We however highlight first that Chinese OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] will install CXMT's memory in their end products & those end products will be sold to overseas customers. Moreover, our checks also consistently find foreign PC, smartphone & consumer OEMs in general can accept the use of Chinese memory in products sold globally, likely except in the US & in sensitive segments for government or data center AI, etc." The investor interest comes as CXMT is expected to release earnings Oct. 31 .
投资者兴趣的兴起正值CXMT预计将于10月31日发布财报之际。据上月下旬的一份报告，法国巴黎银行分析师Alex Chang预计该芯片公司第三季度收入将较上一季度增长22%。而周四，三星预测其第三季度收入将环比增长13%。然而，该股票在该消息公布后出现下跌。法国巴黎银行对CXMT给出中性评级，目标价为48.70元人民币，因为该公司认为"大部分利好因素已被市场提前消化。"
BNP Paribas analyst Alex Chang expects the chip company's September quarter revenue to increase 22% from the prior quarter, according to a report late last month. Samsung on Thursday projected a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase in revenue for the third quarter . However, the stock fell on the news. BNP has a neutral rating on CXMT, with a 48.70 yuan price target, as the firm believes "most of the positives are priced in.