美国软件开发岗位的招聘信息自2025年2月以来一直在增加，而2025年2月正是Anthropic的Claude Code发布的时间，尽管整体招聘信息在下降，这使得关于AI将迅速削减对开发者需求的预测变得复杂。
U.S. software development job postings have risen since February 2025, the launch date for Anthropic's Claude Code, even as overall job postings fell, complicating predictions that AI would rapidly erase demand for developers.
人们对软件开发职业前景的担忧是有根据的，并且随着公司采用AI驱动的编码工具而加剧，尤其是这些工具一直在不断改进。早在2023年，微软的软件开发平台GitHub就表示，在可使用AI的项目中，AI几乎能够编写一半的代码。
Concerns about the future of the software development career are well-founded, and intensified as companies adopted AI-powered coding tools, especially as those tools keep getting better. As far back as 2023, Microsoft's software development platform GitHub said that on projects where AI was available, it was close to writing half of all code.
一些AI专家声称，GitHub平台上由AI编写的代码现在已经超过一半。GitHub尚未证实这一点，但该公司在10月份报告称，三分之一的“拉取请求”——即协作开发的程序员提出代码更改的过程——现在涉及AI代理。一年前，GitHub表示这一比例还不到十分之一。"如果这种趋势持续下去，在未来两年内，推送到GitHub的大部分代码可能将由代理编写。其中很多代码可能永远不会被人类完全阅读，"GitHub如此表示。
Some AI experts claim AI-written code across the entire GitHub platform has now passed the halfway mark. GitHub has not confirmed that, but in October it did report that one in three "pull requests" — the process in which coders that collaborate on development propose code changes for projects — now involve an AI agent. A year ago, GitHub said that number was fewer than one in 10. "If that pace holds, within the next two years, most of the code pushed to GitHub could be written by an agent. Much of it may never be fully read by a human," it stated.
劳动力市场研究人员表示，在此背景下，该职业正在演变而非消失。Indeed Hiring Lab的数据显示，自2025年2月以来，美国软件开发岗位的招聘信息增加了近15%，这既违背了整体就业市场的趋势，也违背了编码领域的数据。
Labor market researchers say that against this backdrop, the profession is evolving rather than disappearing. Data from Indeed Hiring Lab shows that U.S. software-development job postings have risen nearly 15% since February 2025, bucking both the overall job market and the coding data.
一些经济专家指出，软件岗位招聘的反弹证实了对人工智能和就业市场持乐观态度的观点。"不久前，我们还看到头条新闻称软件开发人员将不再有需求，"麦肯锡北美区主席埃里克·库彻在CNBC《街头快报》的一次最近采访中说道。"相反，他说，随着公司前所未有地生产更多代码，熟悉人工智能的软件开发人员需求依然旺盛。"我们看到的增长发生在我们曾以为会出现最大程度替代的地方，"库彻说。
Some economic experts are pointing to the rebound in software job postings as confirmation for a glass half-full view of AI and the job market. "It wasn't that long ago that we were reading the headline that there will be no more need for software developers," Eric Kutcher, North America chair at McKinsey, said during a recent interview on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." Instead, he said, as companies are producing more code than ever before, software developers who work with AI remain in high demand. "We're seeing much more growth in the places we thought we were gonna see the biggest displacement," Kutcher said.
麦肯锡全球研究院最近关于人工智能和就业未来的研究指出，软件开发人员领域的早期下降不仅仅是人工智能的故事。虽然近年来人工智能一直在自动化软件开发任务，但反弹发生在2022年招聘高峰之后的急剧下降之后，当时科技公司在疫情期间招聘激增后开始收缩。
Recent research on AI and the future of jobs from McKinsey Global Institute notes that the earlier decline in the software developer field was not solely an AI story. While in recent years AI has been automating software-development tasks, the rebound comes after a steep drop from a 2022 hiring peak, when technology companies pulled back after a pandemic-era surge in hiring.
但即使在复苏之后，根据Indeed招聘实验室的数据，软件开发岗位招聘仍比疫情前的水平低约27.5%。重要的是，增长集中在高级职位和更具经验的人工智能导向岗位。Indeed招聘实验室发现，高级职位占2025年5月至2026年5月软件开发岗位招聘增加的71%。提及人工智能的职位名称占增加的37%。
But even after the recovery, software-development job postings remain about 27.5% below their pre-pandemic level, according to Indeed Hiring Lab data. Importantly, the increase is concentrated in senior-level roles and more experienced AI-oriented positions. Indeed Hiring Lab found that senior roles accounted for 71% of the increase in software-development postings between May 2025 and May 2026. Job titles that mention AI accounted for 37% of the increase.
人工智能工具可能使公司能够比开发者独立工作时更快地生产代码。GitHub的领导者过去曾表示，多达80%的代码最终可能由人工智能编写，尤其是随着开发者对使用人工智能工具越来越熟悉。但这也可能意味着，对能够评估人工智能生成的代码或问题，并将新工具与组织更广泛的技术系统相连接的工作者的需求正在集中。
AI tools may be allowing companies to produce code more quickly than developers could on their own. GitHub leaders have said in the past that as much if not more than 80% of code could eventually be written by AI, especially as developers become more comfortable working with AI tools. But that also could mean the demand for workers is concentrated on those who can evaluate AI-generated code or problems and connect new tools to an organization's broader technology systems.
Sneha Puri，Indeed Hiring Lab的经济学家表示，公司们正在意识到，即使AI可以处理一些技术编码任务，他们仍然需要开发人员来监督这些工作、完善产品，并帮助客户将技术融入日常运营。她举例说，一个例子是，越来越多的企业需要能够帮助他们超越单纯构建AI工具，而是将其应用于实际业务场景的工人。
Sneha Puri, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, said companies are realizing that even if AI can handle some technical coding tasks, they still need developers to oversee that work, refine products and help clients integrate the technology into their day to day operations. One example, she said, is the growing need for workers who can help businesses apply AI tools beyond simply building them.
AI时代的早期收益可能不会持续，年轻工人仍面临风险 目前，正如Puri所引用的因素所示，软件开发人员正处于AI对劳动力市场转型早期阶段的受益者之列。经济学家Steve Rattner对美国劳工统计局数据的最近分析发现，软件开发人员是2023年5月至2025年5月期间表现出正增长的职业类别之一，尽管其增速仅与所有职业的平均增长持平，且远低于与建设AI数据中心相关的传统蓝领岗位的增长速度。
Early gains in AI era may not last, young workers remain at risk Right now, factors like the ones cited by Puri are helping software developers to be among winners in the earliest stage of the AI transformation of the labor market. A recent analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from economist Steve Rattner found that software developer was among the career categories that showed positive growth from May 2023 to May 2025, though it was merely in line with growth across all occupation and well below the pace of growth in traditionally blue-collar jobs associated with building AI data centers.
Anthropic的研究人员发现，即使在自动化的情况下，人类仍然需要监督自动化过程并提供用户输入。但研究人员警告称，这种模式“绝无可能”持续到未来。GitHub在其关于拉取请求的报告中指出，随着AI推动更多代码进入世界，随之而来的代码风险也在增加，人类必须能够与技术同步扩展，以监督AI的工作。但这可能永远不可能实现。报告写道：“随着代码量的增长，我们必须防止更多风险暴露，并减少剩余人员所需的工作量；否则，引入的漏洞数量将变得无法承受。”
Anthropic researchers found that even with automation, humans are still needed to oversee that automation and require user input. But the researchers cautioned that it is "by no means certain that this pattern will persist into the future." GitHub said in its report on pull requests that the as AI pushed more code into the world, and with it, more risks in the code, humans must be in a position to scale with the technology to police the AI's work. But that may not be possible forever. "As the amount of code grows, we must prevent more exposures and reduce the human effort required by those that remain, or else the volume of vulnerabilities introduced will become untenable," it wrote.
对于最年轻的工人来说，软件开发领域的前景仍然不确定。斯坦福大学2026年人工智能指数发现，自生成式人工智能兴起以来，22至25岁人群在人工智能相关领域的就业人数下降了16%，其中被认定为早期职业软件开发人员的就业人数下降幅度更大，达到20%，而年长开发人员的角色正在扩大。
For the youngest workers, the software development field outlook remains uncertain. Stanford University's 2026 AI index found that employment in AI-exposed fields for those aged 22 to 25 has fallen 16% since the rise of generative AI, with those identified as early-career software developers seeing a larger decline in employment of 20% as older developer roles expand.
这种转变使得最近毕业生进入软件开发领域的道路变得更加艰难，尽管对更有经验的工人的需求正在上升。普里表示，学生应该熟悉人工智能工具的使用，但不要忽视在使用这些工具时仍然至关重要的技能。“能够在工作中使用人工智能并提高效率是一个很好的起点，”普里说。“但沟通、人际交往能力和领导力也同样重要，”她补充道。
That shift has made the path into software development more difficult for recent graduates, even as demand rises for more experienced workers. Puri said students should build familiarity with AI tools but not neglect the skills that remain central when working with them. "Being able to use AI in your work and improve your efficiency is a great place to start," Puri said. "But communication, interpersonal skills and leadership are also really important," she added.
普里还表示，雇主也有责任保障进入该领域的通道。“今天的初级人才就是明天的高级专家，”她说。“如果雇主现在不建立这些人才管道，他们将无法在十年后获得所需的高级人才。”虽然在人工智能时代预测就业增长具有挑战性，但根据美国劳工统计局八月份的一份报告，软件开发人员的长期前景仍然积极。该报告预测，从2025年到2035年，软件开发人员的就业人数将增长10%，从大约172万个岗位增加到189万个岗位，新增约174,700个职位。
Puri said employers also have a role to play in preserving routes into the field. "Today's entry-level talent becomes tomorrow's senior experts," she said. "If employers don't build those pipelines now, they're not going to have senior talent they need 10 years down the line." While forecasting job growth in the AI era is difficult, the long-term outlook for software developers remains positive, according to an August report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It projects employment of software developers will grow 10% from 2025 to 2035, increasing from about 1.72 million to 1.89 million jobs and adding roughly 174,700 positions.