中国央行已连续23个月购买黄金，该国进口的贵金属数量创历史新高。
China's central bank has bought gold for 23 straight months, and the country is importing more of the precious metal than ever.
这一购买热潮反映了北京减少对美元依赖的推动，以及中国家庭缺乏安全的替代选择，分析师预计在经济低迷的背景下，对黄金的需求将持续。
That buying spree reflects Beijing's push to cut its dependence on the dollar, and Chinese households' lack of safe alternatives, with analysts expecting sustained demand for the bullion in a struggling economy.
根据国家外汇管理局的数据，中国人民银行9月增持约23吨黄金，这是其近三年来单月最大增持量，延续了自2015年以来最长的购买连续月份。
The People's Bank of China added about 23 tonnes in September, its biggest monthly purchase in almost three years, according to State Administration of Foreign Exchange data, extending the longest purchasing streak since at least 2015.
中国家庭和企业正将黄金视为避险资产。海关数据显示，该国在2026年首八个月花费创纪录的1588亿美元，进口黄金超过1000吨。这一数字超过了2025年全年进口的965亿美元和886吨。
Chinese households and companies are turning to gold as a safe haven. The country spent a record $158.8 billion, importing more than 1,000 tonnes in the first eight months of 2026, customs data show. That exceeds the $96.5 billion and 886 tonnes imported in all of 2025.
据State Street Investment Management黄金策略主管Aakash Doshi称，中国今年首八个月的消费类黄金进口量创历史新高。他表示，中国境内价格溢价的上升表明“冬季季节性需求更强”。
Consumer gold imports in China hit a record in the first eight months of this year, according to Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management. The surging premiums in China's onshore prices indicate "stronger winter seasonal demand," Doshi said.
随着黄金价格回落，该国继续积累该金属。9月金价回落超过8%，至约每盎司4176美元，而在今年1月曾创下每盎司超过5500美元的历史高点。
The accumulation of the metal comes as gold prices have fallen. They pulled back more than 8% in September to about $4,176 an ounce, after in January hitting a record above $5,500.
Doshi预测，受强劲需求提振，金价将在2027年第一季度末升至每金衡盎司4750至5500美元。
Doshi forecasts gold prices to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per troy ounce by the end of the first quarter in 2027, buoyed by robust demand.
为何中国在购买黄金？据Julius Baer Group分析师Carsten Menke称，人民银行的主要动机是政治性的，他指出“美元的武器化以及相关地希望减少对美国国债作为储备资产的依赖”。西方政府在俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰后冻结了俄罗斯央行的资产，凸显了在地缘政治摩擦时期，外国持有的储备可能受到限制，而存放在本国金库中的黄金则仍然具有隔离性。
Why China is buying The PBOC's main motive is political, according to Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer Group, pointing to "the weaponization of the U.S. dollar and the related desire to be less dependent on U.S. Treasuries as a reserve asset." Western governments froze Russia's central bank assets after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, underscoring how foreign-held reserves can be restricted at times of geopolitical friction, while gold in a country's own vaults remains insulated.
根据美国财政部数据，中国已减持国债持仓，该持仓在7月降至18年来的低点6180亿美元，因为北京继续多元化其外汇储备。
China has offloaded holdings of Treasurys, which reached an 18-year low of $618 billion in July, according to U.S. Treasury data, as Beijing continued to diversify its foreign-exchange reserves.
中国的需求也因黄金作为避险资产的声誉而得到推动。该国消费者对经济前景感到担忧，正在大量购买黄金首饰、金条和金币。
Chinese demand is also being fueled by gold's reputation as a safe haven. Consumers in the country, nervous about the shaky economy, are loading up on gold jewelry, bars and coins.
由于曾是家庭财富主要储存方式的房地产市场陷入多年低迷，国内投资者的选择十分有限。基准CSI 300指数今年下跌约8%，而标普500指数上涨13%。银行存款和债券收益率因贷款需求疲软而下降。中国一年期国债收益率降至约1.2%，而美国约为4.46%。
Domestic investors have few alternatives with the real estate market, once the main store of household wealth, locked in a multiyear slump. The benchmark CSI 300 index is down around 8% this year, versus the S&P 500's 13% gain. Returns from bank deposits and bonds have declined amid tepid borrowing demand. China's one-year government bond yield fell to around 1.2%, against about 4.46% in the U.S.
“在中国持有黄金的机会成本也远低于许多西方市场，”萨克索银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示。
"The opportunity cost of holding gold is also much lower in China than in many Western markets," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Menke表示，北京计划建设更深层次的国内黄金市场，促使其补充库存，这也推动了前所未有的购买热潮。他估计，央行截至8月底今年已购买约190吨黄金，其中包括110吨未报告的买入量。
Adding to the momentum of the unprecedented buying is Beijing's plan to build a deeper domestic gold market, prompting it to replenish inventories, said Menke. He estimated that the central bank bought around 190 tonnes this year by end-August, including 110 tonnes that were unreported.
黄金缓冲：中国对黄金的需求帮助黄金抵御了原本会导致价格进一步下跌的压力，因为美国收益率走高抑制了对这种无收益贵金属的需求。通常情况下，利率上升时金价会下跌。
Gold cushion China's demand for gold has helped bullion withstand pressures that would have caused a deeper fall in prices, as buoyant U.S. yields kept a lid on demand for the non-yielding precious metal. The price of gold usually goes down when interest rates go up.
“中国的购买已成为支撑金价的重要结构性力量，”ING银行大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey表示。她补充道，央行出于长期考虑购买黄金，对价格波动的敏感度远低于零售投资者。
"Chinese buying has become an important source of structural support for gold prices," Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Bank. Central banks buy for the long term and are far less sensitive to price than retail investors, Manthey added.
卡斯滕指出，尽管利率预期和债券收益率上升更为显著，但金价仍保持在夏季水平之上，呼应了这一观点。美联储已暗示2026年可能再次加息。
Echoing that view, Carsten pointed out that gold prices have stayed above their levels in summer, even though interest rate expectations and bond yields have risen more sharply. The Federal Reserve has indicated another interest rate hike on the cards for 2026.
根据世界黄金理事会的数据，截至8月，全球第五大黄金持有国拥有2387吨黄金，仅为美国持有量的三分之一以下。
The world's fifth-largest gold holder owned 2,387 tonnes as of August, according to the World Gold Council, less than a third of the that held by the U.S.
汉森表示，中国房地产和股市的任何新增信心都可能削弱对黄金的需求，同时人民币走弱会使国内黄金价格上涨，而更高的利率则会使存款更具吸引力。
Any renewed confidence in China's property and equities could blunt demand for gold, as well as a weaker yuan that makes gold pricier at home or higher interest rates that make deposits more attractive, Hansen said.
汉森补充称，若央行失去对储备多元化的兴趣且地缘政治紧张局势缓解，将带来更大的转变，但他指出，“这两种情况目前看来都并不迫在眉睫。”
The larger shift would come if central banks lost interest in diversifying reserves and geopolitical tensions eased, Hansen said, adding that "neither appears particularly imminent."