
分析人士表示,中国正在增加黄金储备,以减少对美元资产的依赖,防范金融和地缘政治风险;与此同时,由于国内经济前景不确定,家庭也在转向贵金属。
China is increasing its gold reserves in a bid to reduce its dependence on US dollar assets and protect against financial and geopolitical risks, analysts say, while households are turning to the precious metal amid uncertainty over the domestic economy.
中国人民银行报告称,9月份连续第23个月购入黄金,当时该国央行还实现了近三年来的最大单月采购量。专家表示,这种持续购买表明中国正在进行一项长期努力,以分散其庞大储备所关联的风险。
The People’s Bank of China reported buying gold for a 23rd consecutive month in September, when the country’s central bank also made its largest monthly purchase in nearly three years. The sustained buying points to a longer-term effort to spread risk associated with its vast reserves, experts say.
其中一个担忧是美国高债务以及西方政府冻结资产的行为,这凸显了海外持有货币所固有的风险,特别是对新兴市场和全球南方国家而言。在国内购买并储存黄金可以规避这种风险,因为获取黄金不依赖于另一国政府的意愿。
Among concerns is high US debt and Western governments’ freezing of assets, which has highlighted the inherent risk in holding money overseas, particularly for emerging market and Global South economies. Gold bought and stored domestically offers protection against that risk because access does not depend on the will of another government.
但中国央行购买黄金和家庭对黄金的需求有不同的驱动因素。北京在管理其金融风险敞口,而私人投资者则在寻找保值储蓄的渠道。以下是我们所了解的情况。中国购入了多少黄金?
But central bank buying and household demand for gold in China have different drivers. While Beijing is managing its financial exposure, private investors are seeking somewhere to preserve their savings. Here is what we know. How much gold has China bought?
根据世界黄金协会的数据,中国央行在9月份增持了约23吨黄金,使其报告持有量达到约2,410吨。这是自2023年10月以来的最大单月采购量。截至9月末,黄金占中国官方总储备的8.5%,而2024年末这一比例为5.5%。
China’s central bank added approximately 23 tonnes of gold in September, bringing its reported holdings to about 2,410 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. That was its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. Gold accounted for 8.5 percent of China’s total official reserves at the end of September, compared with 5.5 percent at the end of 2024.
储备是央行持有的资产,用于确保能够应对国际付款和金融冲击。它们通常包括外币、外国政府债务和黄金。
Reserves are assets central banks hold to ensure they can meet international payments and respond to financial disruption. They usually include foreign currencies, foreign government debt and gold.
中国国内对黄金的私人需求也有所上升。中国金协表示,2026年上半年金条和金币的购买量比去年同期增长了28.4%。尽管价格下跌,黄金的购买仍在继续,一个月内黄金价格下跌了约8.5%。
Private demand for gold within China has also risen, with purchases of gold bars and coins 28.4 percent higher in the first half of 2026 than during the same period last year, according to the China Gold Association. The buying of gold has continued amid falling prices, with gold down around 8.5 percent over the month. The World Gold Council attributed the decline in gold prices partly to a stronger dollar and higher returns on US government debt.
世界黄金理事会将黄金价格的下跌部分归因于美元走强和美国政府债务收益率上升。随着利率上升以遏制通胀,这些投资因支付利润而对买家具有吸引力,使其相比不支付利息的黄金更受私人投资者青睐。中国为何增购黄金?
With interest rates going up in an attempt to curb inflation, these investments are attractive for buyers as they pay interest, making them more attractive to private investors than gold, which does not. Why is China buying more gold? A key objective is to reduce dependence on US government debt, known as Treasuries, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, head of commodity research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
法兰克福商业银行大宗商品研究主管Thu Lan Nguyen表示,一个关键目标是减少对美国政府债务(即国债)的依赖。
China holds substantial reserves in dollar-based assets and, therefore, buying gold reduces its exposure to decisions taken in Washington.
中国持有大量以美元计价的资产,因此购买黄金可以降低其对华盛顿决策的暴露。Nguyen对半岛电视台表示:“中国的黄金购买是使其外汇储备更具韧性的更广泛努力的一部分。”
“China’s gold purchases are part of a broader effort to make its reserves more resilient,” Nguyen told Al Jazeera. The freezing by Western countries of roughly $300bn in Russian Central Bank overseas assets following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 demonstrated how reserves held abroad can quickly become inaccessible.
西方国家在2022年莫斯科入侵乌克兰之后,冻结了大约3000亿美元的俄罗斯央行海外资产,这表明海外持有的储备可能很快变得无法使用。
The concern for China may be that a future confrontation with Washington could expose some of its overseas assets to similar restrictions.
对中国而言,担忧在于未来与华盛顿的对抗可能使其部分海外资产面临类似限制。Nguyen表示:“在这种情况下,国内持有的黄金具有关键优势:它不代表对另一国的主张,因此受制裁或资产冻结的影响要小得多。”
“Gold held domestically has a crucial advantage in this respect: it does not represent a claim on another country and is therefore much less exposed to sanctions or asset freezes,” Nguyen said. “I would interpret it primarily as risk management,” she added, pointing to increased geopolitical tensions and economic and fiscal risks.
她补充道:“我主要将其视为风险管理,”并指出地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及经济和财政风险上升。
America’s rising debt, which hit $40 trillion for the first time in history earlier this year, adds another source of uncertainty.
美国的债务正在上升,今年早些时候首次达到40万亿美元,这增加了另一个不确定因素。2月,美国国会预算办公室预测,联邦政府持有的公众债务将从2026年美国经济规模的101%上升至2036年的120%。这为人们对华盛顿在经济崩溃发生时偿还该债务的能力提供了背景。此部分债务大多由中国持有。因此,黄金提供了一种波动性较小、风险较低的资产。
In February, the US Congressional Budget Office projected that federal debt held by the public would rise from 101 percent of the size of the US economy in 2026 to 120 percent in 2036. That provides context for concerns about Washington’s ability to repay that debt going forward should an economic crash occur. Much of this debt is held by China. Gold, therefore, offers a less volatile and risky asset to hold. Chinese households have different motivations for buying gold.
中国家庭购买黄金的动机各不相同。当其他投资的信心减弱时,黄金可以成为持有储蓄更具吸引力的方式。阮说:“对黄金的强劲需求部分反映了对替代价值储存方式的寻求。”
When confidence in other investments weakens, gold can become more attractive as a way to hold savings. “Strong demand for gold can partly reflect a search for alternative stores of value,” Nguyen said. The World Gold Council has identified weak Chinese share markets as one factor supporting domestic demand for gold, while its property market is burdened by heavy borrowing and overbuilding, contributing to a fall in housing prices, making it a poorer investment.
世界黄金理事会指出,中国股市疲软是支撑国内黄金需求的一个因素,而其房地产市场则因高杠杆借贷和过度建设而负担沉重,导致房价下跌,使其成为较差的投资。
What this means for the US dollar Analysts warned that China’s increased buying of gold does not signal an imminent end to the dollar’s global dominance.
这对美元意味着什么 分析师警告称,中国增加购买黄金并不预示美元全球主导地位的 imminent 终结。阮说:“我对将此描述为远离美元的重大转变持谨慎态度。” “美元仍然是绝对占主导地位的全球储备货币。”但如果中国和其他央行将更多新增外储投入黄金,购买的美国资产少于通常水平,这种渐进的转变仍可能产生影响。这可能会削弱对美国政府债务的一种需求来源。但其影响将取决于这种转变的广泛程度和速度。
“I would be cautious about describing this as a major shift away from the dollar,” Nguyen said. “The dollar remains by far the dominant global reserve currency.”But a gradual shift could still matter if China and other central banks put more of their new reserves into gold, buying fewer US assets than they normally would. That could weaken one source of demand for US government debt. But the effect would depend on how widely and quickly the shift developed. “The key point is, therefore, that this is likely to be a slow diversification process rather than a sudden abandonment of the dollar,” Nguyen said.
阮因此表示:“关键点在于,这很可能是一个缓慢的多元化进程,而不是美元的突然放弃。”她补充说,除非这一趋势大幅扩大和加速,否则对美国经济的影响将保持有限。
She added that the consequences for the US economy would remain limited unless the trend broadened and accelerated substantially. Central banks also need readily available foreign currency to support international payments and the dollar remains central to those transactions.
央行也需要随时可用的外币来支持国际支付,而美元仍然是这些交易的核心。因此,黄金可以提供金融保护,但它无法直接取代美元储备的全部功能。还有谁在购买黄金?阮表示,中国是更广泛趋势的一部分,尤其是新兴经济体的央行。
So gold can provide financial protection, but it cannot directly replace all the functions of dollar reserves. Who else is buying gold? China is part of a wider trend, particularly among central banks in emerging economies, Nguyen said. “The trend is particularly visible among emerging market central banks,” Nguyen said.
“这一趋势在新兴市场央行中尤为明显,”阮说。“但制裁只是故事的一部分。”波兰也成为更突出的买家。根据世界黄金理事会的数据,其央行在2026年第一季度购买了31吨黄金,7月又购买了另外8吨。
“But sanctions are only part of the story.”Poland has also become a more prominent buyer. Its central bank purchased 31 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 and another eight tonnes in July, according to the World Gold Council.
大量持有并不一定意味着最近有购买。例如,印度在6月确认,其实物黄金储量仍保持不变,约为880.5吨。根据世界黄金理事会的数据,印度的黄金储量自2025年中以来变化不大。它在2025年购买了大约4吨黄金,而2024年为73吨。
Large holdings do not necessarily indicate recent purchases. India, for example, confirmed in June that its physical gold stock remained unchanged at about 880.5 tonnes. India’s gold reserves have changed little since mid-2025, according to the World Gold Council. It bought about four tonnes in 2025, down from 73 tonnes in 2024.
尽管中国持续购买黄金,但其储备仍远低于美国。其截至2025年底的约2,300吨黄金储备,仅相当于美国约8,133吨储备的三分之一以下。
Despite China’s sustained buying, its reserves remain far smaller than those of the United States. Its holdings of about 2,300 tonnes at the end of 2025 amounted to less than one-third of the US stockpile of approximately 8,133 tonnes.