迈克尔·麦肯齐 债券交易员正在关注最新的消费者价格通胀数据以及美联储主席凯文·沃什的计划亮相，以了解央行将继续加息的速度。
Bond traders are looking to the latest consumer-price inflation figures and a planned appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh for insight into how quickly the central bank will continue raising interest rates.
在美联储上月一致决定加息后，国债收益率出现急剧上扬，但上周基本持平，徘徊在24年高点附近，因为投资者正在等待新数据。
After a sharp jump in the wake of the Fed’s unanimous rate hike last month, Treasury yields were little changed last week, hovering around a 24-year high as investors wait for new data.
债券抛售受到本月就业报告中显示的就业增长显著放缓的限制，这使交易员预计美联储将在10月下旬的下次会议上维持利率不变。他们继续预计12月将加息25个基点，随后在2027年底前再加息两次。
The bond selloff was restrained by the significant slowdown in job growth shown in this month’s employment report, which lead traders to anticipate that the Fed will hold steady at its next meeting in late October. They continue to anticipate a quarter-point increase in December, followed by two more by late 2027.
这种定位增加了风险：如果9月份的消费者价格指数涨幅超过预期，可能会重新引发抛售，因为这将给美联储施加更激进加息的压力。
The positioning is raising the risk that a bigger-than-expected increase in the consumer price index in September will rekindle the selloff by putting pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively.
“CPI报告的风险是不对称的，因为如果数据偏热，可能表明美联储需要加快紧缩步伐；而如果数据偏弱或符合共识，则将继续促使美联储保持谨慎，”TD证券美国利率策略师莫莉·布鲁克斯说道。
“The risk to the CPI report is asymmetric, as a hotter print could signal that the Fed may need to pick up the pace of tightening, while a weaker, or at consensus print continues to feed into the Fed exercising caution going forward,” said Molly Brooks, US rates strategist at TD Securities.
沃什将于周四在泰国曼谷举行的国际货币基金组织年会上发表讲话。其他两位备受关注的美联储官员——州长克里斯托弗·沃勒和克利夫兰联储行长贝斯·哈马克——也将发表讲话。美联储将从周六起开始执行其通常的通信黑out期，直至10月28日结束的两天会议之前。
Warsh will speak Thursday in a discussion at the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting in Bangkok, Thailand. Two other closely followed Fed officials, governor Christopher Waller and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, are also speaking. The central bank will start observing its usual communications blackout from Saturday, ahead of the two day meeting that ends on Oct. 28.
布鲁克斯表示：“这将是禁售期前的最后一周，因此美联储在发布消费者价格指数（CPI）后的声明将有助于市场减少对下一次会议结果的不确定性。”她补充说：“沃什（Warsh）可能会继续回避提供关于未来经济走势的明确指引，而这正是市场所期待的。”消费者价格指数将于周三公布。经济学家预计该指数将比上月上涨0.6%，高于此前的0.4%；根据彭博社对经济学家的调查，剔除食品和能源价格这些波动较大因素后的核心通胀指标预计将从0.3%降至0.2%。
“This will be the last week before blackout period, so Fedspeak post CPI” will help markets have “less uncertainty” about the outcome of the next meeting, said Brooks. She said, “Warsh is likely to continue to shy away from forward guidance, which the market is expecting.”The consumer price index will be released Wednesday. Economists expect it to rise 0.6% from the month before, up from 0.4% previously. The core measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is seen easing to 0.2% from 0.3%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
无论是同比涨幅还是环比涨幅，经济学家都预计会呈现上升趋势，其中总体通胀率预计将达到3.6%，核心通胀率预计为2.5%。债券市场因公共假期将于周一关闭，美国股市则将继续开放。
Both year-over-year measures are forecast higher, with headline figure seen running at a 3.6% pace and the core reading at 2.5%. The bond market will be closed Monday for a public holiday. US equities will remain open for trading.
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