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华尔街老板们无视痛点,加大押注印度Wall Street Bosses Look Past Pain Points to Ramp Up India Bets

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孟买班德拉库尔拉综合商业区的建筑。摄影师:阿比尔·汗/彭博社Buildings at the Bandra Kurla Complex business district in Mumbai. Photographer: Abeer Khan/Bloomberg

由普里蒂·辛格、兰贾尼·拉格哈万、赛伊达特·达斯和西迪·纳亚克撰写 在印度的小城镇和繁华城市,散户投资者一直在抢购新上市公司的股票。这是一场繁荣,布莱克石集团(Blackstone Inc.)总裁乔恩·格雷(Jon Gray)在距离数千英里之外的帕克大道办公室里为之欢呼。

India’s small towns and bustling cities, retail investors have been snapping up shares of newly listed companies. It’s a boom that Blackstone Inc.’s President Jon Gray celebrates thousands of miles away in his Park Avenue office.

“在美国之外,对我们而言,印度是流动性最强的市场——也是今年全球最容易完成IPO的地方,”格雷在接受采访时表示。印度最近几周已经迎来了有史以来规模最大的首次公开募股之一,而亿万富翁穆克什·安巴尼(Mukesh Ambani)旗下帝国的一次市值超过1000亿美元的上市也是可能的,这使得印度成为全球最繁忙的IPO市场之一。

“For us, outside of the United States, India is the most liquid market — the easiest place to get an IPO done in the world this year,’’ Gray said in an interview. India already saw one of its biggest ever initial public offerings in recent weeks and a listing with a market value of more than $100 billion is possible from billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s empire, making the country one of the world’s busiest IPO markets.

格雷及其他金融界重量级人物承认,通胀上升和卢比贬值等挑战依然存在。然而,凭借其私募股权和房地产业务,布莱克石在过去十年里在印度陆续上市了一批公司,收入增长一直保持高位,格雷表示。该公司预计,在未来几年内,其在南亚国家的管理资产规模将翻倍至1000亿美元。

Gray and other financial heavyweights acknowledge challenges like rising inflation and the falling rupee. Yet, between its private equity and real estate businesses, Blackstone has listed a string of companies over the past decade in India and revenue growth has been high, Gray said. The firm expects assets under management in the South Asian country to double to $100 billion in the coming years.

这标志着在这4万亿美元经济体内,金融市场正日益成熟,并进一步向外资开放。这也与仅仅几年前形成了戏剧性的转折——当时私募股权投资者在印度几乎没有退出投资的渠道,更不用说能够获得可观利润了。如今,私募股权、私募信贷和主权财富基金正在印度投入越来越深的资本池,而像Citadel Securities LLC这样的高频交易公司和Millennium Management LLC这样的对冲基金也已在那里建立了存在。金融行业的其他部分也正在迅速变化。

That’s a sign of the growing sophistication of the financial markets within this $4 trillion economy as it opens up further to foreign money. It’s also a dramatic turnaround from just a few years ago when private equity investors had limited options to exit investments in India, let alone at substantial profits. Now private equity, private credit and sovereign wealth funds are committing ever deeper pools of capital, while high frequency trading firms like Citadel Securities LLC and hedge funds like Millennium Management LLC have built a presence there. Other parts of the financial industry are also changing swiftly.

印度的市场规模仍仅为中国的一小部分。高企的企业税和卢比的贬值使得外国公司能够汇回美元的利润空间被压缩。在政治层面,青年抗议运动正在为纳伦德拉·莫迪总理的政府带来新的压力。

India’s markets remain a fraction of China’s by size. High corporate taxes and the rupee’s decline leave foreign firms smaller profits to repatriate into dollars. On the political front, a youth protest movement is creating new pressures for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government.

华尔街的高管们仍在关注该经济体的长期前景。许多人正在押注莫迪政府推出的一系列措施,以启动一个庞大的数字支付生态系统。数百万印度人首次将他们的储蓄投入金融市场。随着新发展重塑印度金融格局,以下是一些正在出现的最大变化和挑战:最近几个月,一批华尔街高管纷纷来到印度,以争取与企业和政府的合作。

Wall Street bosses are still looking at the economy’s long-term prospects. Many are betting on a series of measures taken by the Modi administration to jumpstart a vast digital payments ecosystem. Millions of Indians are now putting their savings into financial markets for the first time. As new developments reshape Indian finance, here are some of the biggest changes and challenges emerging:

乔恩·格雷Jon Gray

花旗集团公司(Citigroup Inc.)的简·弗雷泽(Jane Fraser)与莫迪会面。摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)的杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)会见了该国的财政部长。两家公司都在参与安巴尼的数字服务巨头Jio平台的首次公开募股(IPO)。据彭博社报道,该公司预计将在今年晚些时候上市,其估值有望使其成为印度有史以来规模最大的IPO。

In recent months, a string of Wall Street bosses have landed in India to court businesses and the government. Citigroup Inc.’s Jane Fraser had a meeting with Modi. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jamie Dimon met the country’s finance minister. Both firms are working on the IPO of Ambani’s digital services giant Jio Platforms. That company is expected to go public later this year at a valuation that could make it India’s largest ever, Bloomberg News has reported.

银行一直在加强其投资银行和资本市场团队。高盛集团公司(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)近年来已向其印度银行业务注入至少5亿美元,彭博社有此报道。它也是Jio IPO的承销银行之一。

Banks have been bolstering teams in investment banking and capital markets. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has injected at least $500 million into its India banking franchise in recent years, Bloomberg News has reported. It’s also one of the banks on the Jio IPO.

“家庭储蓄的快速金融化正在创造一个持久的国内资本池,以支持私营部门的投资,”高盛印度公司董事长兼首席执行官桑乔伊·查特吉(Sonjoy Chatterjee)表示。

“Rapid financialization of household savings is creating a durable pool of domestic capital to support private-sector investment,” said Sonjoy Chatterjee, chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs India.

根据资本市场数据提供商LSEG的数据,印度银行家在IPO中平均收取的费用已升至IPO价值的1.86%,高于香港大约1.5%的水平。

The average fee paid to bankers in India has risen to 1.86% of an IPO’s value, according to capital-markets data provider LSEG. That’s higher than roughly 1.5% in Hong Kong.

这些公司都在争夺更大的份额,因为这里已经成为全球最具竞争力的投资银行市场之一。华尔街银行不仅在相互竞争,还面临着日本银行以及像高塔银行有限公司和轴银行有限公司这样的本地企业的竞争,这些企业拥有深厚的客户关系和定价能力。

The firms are all vying for a larger slice of the pie in what’s become one of the world’s most competitive investment banking markets. The Wall Street banks are competing against each other as well as Japanese ones and local firms like Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. and Axis Bank Ltd., who command deep client relationships and pricing power.

与此同时,全球银行也在看到其他机遇。花旗银行印度首席执行官K. Balasubramanian在一次采访中表示,随着印度与包括英国在内的多个国家签署更多贸易协定,该银行看到了与本地和外国企业开展业务的额外机遇。

Meanwhile, global banks are seeing other opportunities. Citi's India CEO K. Balasubramanian said in an interview that the bank sees added opportunities to do business with local and foreign corporations as India enters into more trade deals with countries including the UK.

直到20世纪90年代,印度几乎完全对外国资本关闭,且很少有私募股权基金参与重大交易。随着经济的开放,私募股权公司已投入数十亿美元,交易规模也在不断扩大。

Until the 1990s, India was almost completely closed to foreign capital, and few private equity funds were involved in major deals. As the economy has opened up, PE firms have invested tens of billions of dollars and deal sizes have been increasing.

位于班加罗尔的摩根大通办公楼。The JPMorgan Chase office building in Bengaluru.

布鲁克菲尔德资产管理有限公司首席执行官Connor Teskey表示,在未来五年内,该公司在印度的投资将超过1000亿美元,而2025年约为300亿美元。他表示,这是对“印度巨大的规模、强劲的经济增长、对资本的尊重以及日益增长的基础设施需求”的赌注。

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd.’s CEO Connor Teskey says that over the next five years the firm’s investment in India will be more than $100 billion from about $30 billion in 2025. It’s a bet on “India’s immense scale, strong economic growth, respect for capital and growing demand for infrastructure,” he said.

像布鲁克菲尔德和黑石这样的公司也在押注该国的房地产市场。随着本地和外国公司争相进入孟买和新德里等城市的高档新楼,办公空间需求出现了激增。

Firms like Brookfield and Blackstone are also betting on the country’s real estate markets. Office space has seen a boom as local and foreign companies scramble for room in swanky new towers in cities like Mumbai and New Delhi.

“显然的一个挑战是通胀率上升和货币贬值,”格雷说。尽管存在这些挑战,但黑石在诸如其物流组合等领域取得了非常好的成绩,因为“存在如此强劲的底层需求,以至于可以弥补货币贬值的影响”,他补充道。

“The one challenge obviously has been higher inflation rates and currency depreciation,” Gray said. Despite that Blackstone has had very good success in areas like its logistics portfolio because “there’s so much underlying demand that you can make up for the fact that the currency’s been going down,” he said.

始于20世纪90年代的基础后台中心已经演变为全球金融体系中不可或缺的关键环节。根据邓白街报告,2025年印度拥有超过1800家全球能力中心,预计到2030年这一数字将超过2400家。

The basic back-office centers that began in the 1990s have evolved into mission-critical cogs of global finance. India had more than 1,800 Global Capability Centers in 2025 and that is projected to exceed 2,400 by 2030, according to a Dun & Bradstreet report.

低端岗位正转移到菲律宾等地,而印度的广阔园区则聚集了大量量化分析师、风险分析师、投资和技术人员。

While low-end jobs have been shifting to places like the Philippines, the sprawling Indian campuses house armies of quants, risk analysts, investment and tech staff.

据估计,全球能力中心(GCCs)在上一财年创造了约1000亿美元的收入。其增长如此迅速,以至于一些华尔街巨头在印度的员工人数已超过美国以外的任何其他地区。仅摩根大通就有约6万人在其印度GCCs工作。

GCCs are estimated to have generated around $100 billion in revenue last fiscal year. They have grown so much that some Wall Street giants have more employees in India than anywhere else outside the US. JPMorgan alone has around 60,000 people working at its India GCCs.

尽管近期有所改善,但在近15亿人口的印度,目前只有少数人参与市场投资。麦格里分析师指出,印度人每年在金融资产上的储蓄达到5000亿美元,其中近50%仍以现金和存款形式持有。

Only a small percentage of people in this nation of nearly 1.5 billion people are presently invested in markets, despite recent improvements. Indians save $500 billion annually in financial assets and almost 50% of that is still in cash and deposits, according to analysts at Macquarie.

现在,更多资金可能流向海外。印度市场监管机构近期表示,将允许管理着4630亿美元资产的投资组合管理行业(该行业服务于高净值个人)投资于海外证券和股票期权。

More of their money may now flow overseas. In recent weeks, India’s market regulator has said it will allow a $463 billion segment of its portfolio management industry catering to wealthy individuals to invest in overseas securities and short equity options.

根据Knight Frank的报告,印度超高净值人群的数量预计将从2026年的约1.9万人增加到2031年的约2.5万人,凸显其在全球财富格局中的日益重要角色。这使得渣打集团汇丰控股等国际知名私人银行得以建立规模可观的业务网络。

India’s population of ultra-high-net-worth individuals is forecast to rise from about 19,000 in 2026 to roughly 25,000 by 2031, underscoring its growing role in the global wealth landscape, according to a Knight Frank report. That’s enabled established international private banks like Standard Chartered Plc and HSBC Holdings Plc to build sizeable franchises.

更多内容,请阅读:Young, Rich, Family Office. 印度继承人担心他们的长辈,但财富繁荣也为莫迪带来了一套新问题。随着印度社会的一部分人变得更富有,不平等现象加剧并引发了社会动荡。青年不满情绪今年通过“蟑螂人民党”这一运动公开爆发,该运动最初是一种讽刺,源于一名最高法院法官将一些失业青年比作蟑螂。随着年轻人本周末走上街头,当局在新德里实施了前所未有的限制,部署了数千名警察,并要求电信运营商在抗议区域附近暂停互联网服务。

For more, read: Young, Rich, Family Office. Indian Heirs Worry Their Elders Still, the wealth boom has brought a new set of problems for Modi. As one section of Indian society has grown richer, inequities have deepened and sparked social upheaval. Youth discontent burst into public view this year through the Cockroach Janta Party, a movement that began as satire after a Supreme Court judge compared some unemployed young people to cockroaches. As young people took to the streets this weekend, the authorities imposed unprecedented restrictions in New Delhi, deploying thousands of police and asking telecom operators to suspend internet services near protest areas.

虽然长期投资持续涌入,但由于印度是一个石油进口国,其货币今年贬值,通胀因原油价格上涨而上升,导致印度市场今年受到冲击。截至目前,外国机构投资者已从国内股票中撤出约300亿美元,以追求其他地区的人工智能机遇。

While longer term investments have poured in, India’s markets have taken a hit this year as the oil importing country’s currency has slumped and inflation has risen with higher crude prices. Foreign portfolio institutions have pulled out about $30 billion from domestic stocks so far this year in pursuit of artificial intelligence opportunities elsewhere.

尽管印度是2026年表现最差的股票市场之一,但其资本市场自疫情以来迅速深化和成熟,部分原因在于粘性国内资金流入、IPO热潮以及广泛的投资机会。

While India is among the worst-performing equity markets in 2026, its capital markets have deepened and matured rapidly since the pandemic, underpinned partly by sticky domestic flows, the IPO boom and wide-ranging investment opportunities.

流动性增加和机构参与持续使该国成为全球投资组合的重要目的地。由Optiver Holding BV和Citadel Securities等公司运营的高频交易柜台正与新成立的印度交易公司展开直接竞争,争夺顶尖人才。一些高频交易公司的实习生在印度已开始获得每月31,000美元的薪酬。

Growing liquidity and institutional participation continue to make the country an important destination in global portfolios. High frequency trading desks run by firms like Optiver Holding BV and Citadel Securities are going head-to-head with newly minted Indian trading joints and are fueling a fight for top talent. At some high frequency firms, interns have begun to command $31,000 in monthly pay in India.

随着印度市场流动性提升,其监管机构面临着新的困境。截至3月止的财年里,印度散户交易者在股票期货和期权交易中亏损超过90亿美元。

New dilemmas are emerging for India’s regulators as its markets become more liquid. Indian retail traders lost more than $9 billion trading equity futures and options in the year ended March.

这推动了印度监管机构对期权和期货市场的繁荣进行打压,而该市场是外国交易桌最赚钱的领域之一。

That’s pushed India’s regulators to clamp down on a boom in the options and futures market, one of the most lucrative areas for foreign trading desks.

监管机构最近指责一家位于毛里求斯的小型摩根大通单位在印度进行操纵性股票交易。该离岸单位的交易禁令此后已被解除。去年,在对外国公司的最戏剧性行动之一中,印度证券交易所(SEBI)指责Jane Street进行市场操纵,而这家美国金融巨头否认了这一指控。该公司正在就印度证券监管机构的决定提出高调上诉,并继续推进其案件。

The regulator recently accused a small Mauritius-based JPMorgan unit of executing manipulative stock trades in India. The offshore unit’s trading ban has since been lifted. Last year, in one of its most dramatic actions on a foreign firm, SEBI accused Jane Street of market manipulation, an allegation that the US financial giant has denied. The firm has pressed ahead with its case in a high-profile appeal against India’s securities regulator.

一个名为GIFT City的新自由市场绿洲正经历着繁荣。古吉拉特国际金融科技城(Gujarat International Finance Tec-City)是莫迪推动在印度建设一个能够与国际主要城市竞争的金融中心的一部分。外国银行在这一位于印度西海岸的替代性低税中心看到资产激增。在那里,他们正在帮助企业设立财库业务,为国际企业提供融资,并协助外国客户进行交易。

A new free market oasis called GIFT City is seeing a boom. Gujarat International Finance Tec-City is part of Modi’s push to develop a hub in India that can compete with major international cities. Foreign banks are seeing assets surge in this alternative low-tax center on India’s west coast. There, they are helping set up treasury operations for corporations, offering financing for international businesses and helping foreign clients trade.

根据知情人士透露,汇丰银行在GIFT城的资产规模在六年内已达到230亿美元。花旗银行的资产预计将在2026年底达到30亿美元,而去年12月仅为3.5亿美元,其印度首席执行官K. Balasubramanian表示。

HSBC has built a $23 billion balance sheet in GIFT city in under six years, according to people familiar with the matter. Citi’s assets there are likely to reach $3 billion by the end of 2026 from about $350 million last December, its India CEO K. Balasubramanian said.

他说:“该中心是印度经济国际化的核心,也是在本土建设全球金融枢纽的关键。” “这使其成为花旗银行的重点关注领域。”

The hub is “central to the internationalization of India’s economy and to building a global financial hub onshore,” he said. “That makes it a big focus for Citi.”