国际货币基金组织负责人警告称，人工智能对劳动力市场和税收构成破坏性威胁，呼吁政策制定者重新思考教育并立即行动，以帮助社会适应。
The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned of the disruptive threat from artificial intelligence to the labor market and taxation, urging policymakers to rethink education and act now to help society adapt.
“这是一个慢速海啸，但海啸终究是海啸，” 管理总干事 Kristalina Georgieva 周一在曼谷参加 IMF 和世界银行年会首次亮相时如是说。
“It is a slow-moving tsunami, but tsunami none the less,” Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Monday during her first appearance at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok.
在就业影响的 AI 专题会议上，她表示，该技术正通过接管常规、重复性任务，已经削弱了对许多人类工作者的需求。与此同时，它正在建筑等行业增加低薪岗位，她称这“并非值得庆祝的故事”。这种转变对公共财政有深远影响，Georgieva 表示。风险在于，AI 可能通过将经济向资本倾斜、远离劳动（传统税收主要来源）来给政府财政带来压力。
Speaking at a session on AI’s impact on employment, she said the technology is already hollowing out demand for many human workers by taking over routine, repetitive tasks. At the same time, it’s increasing low-paying jobs in sectors like construction, which she said is “not a story to celebrate.”It’s a transformation with far-reaching consequences for public finances, Georgieva said. The risk is that AI strains government revenues by tilting the economy toward capital and away from labor — traditionally the main source of tax income.
她的言论是关于 AI 对就业和全球经济潜在冲击的最新警告。AI 高曝露领域的年轻工作者已经出现招聘放缓，使新入职求职者更加脆弱。人们还担心该技术将加剧不平等，因为目前其收益主要集中在少数工作者和经济体中，尽管全球正处于投资超级周期。
The comments are the latest warning about the potential shock from AI on jobs and the global economy. Young workers in AI-exposed fields have already seen a slowdown in hiring, leaving new entry-level applicants far more vulnerable. Concern is also growing that the technology will widen inequality, with its gains so far concentrated among a narrow set of workers and economies despite a global investment supercycle.
“我们今天无法想象五年后的工作世界究竟会是什么样子，” 她说。“但我们可以保持纪律性，仔细评估正在发生的事情，然后汲取教训，但最重要的是——立即采取行动。” 尽管就业面临逆风，该技术最终可能对整体增长产生积极影响。IMF 估计，AI 的普及可能使先进亚洲经济体的增长提升多达一个百分点。
“We cannot today imagine what exactly the world of work will be five years from now,” she said. “But we can be disciplined and carefully assess what is happening, and then draw lessons, but — most importantly — act on them now.”Despite the employment headwinds, the technology can ultimately prove a positive for growth overall. The IMF estimates the spread of AI can add up to a percentage point to growth in advanced Asian economies.
Georgieva 表示，这种增长提升“是一件非常重要的事”，并补充说它将“超过抵消”该地区富裕国家因人口老龄化带来的拖累。
Such a growth boost “is a very big deal,” Georgieva said, adding it will “more than offset” the drag from aging in rich countries across the region.