2024年，作为唐纳德·特朗普的竞选搭档，JD·万斯在佛罗里达州一家甜甜圈店遭遇尴尬时刻的一幕在网上广为流传，当时店里的一名员工似乎很不情愿跟他搭话。两年后，在家乡俄亥俄州米德尔顿的一家面包店里，类似的一幕以不同的方式上演了。“你们想跟我们一起去吗？”万斯聚在三名正同他自拍的员工身旁说道。“我们有地方，对吧？”他接着说，瞥了一眼他的随行工作人员。“我们连红绿灯都不停。”
In 2024, while campaigning as Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance went viral for an awkward moment at a Florida donut shop, when a worker appeared reluctant to strike up a conversation with him. Two years later, a similar scene played out differently at a bakery in his hometown of Middletown, Ohio. “You want to come with us?”Vance said, huddled around a trio of employees taking selfies with him. “We’ve got room, right?” he continued, glancing over at his staff. “We don’t stop at traffic lights.”
购买甜甜圈的订单变成了一个邀请，邀请他们前往附近的一场竞选风格集会。在万斯发布到其账号上、获得了7.2万次观看量的TikTok视频中，三名女性依然戴着印有公司品牌的帽子，在副总统的车队中一辆面包车的后座上挥手致意。
A donut order had turned into an invitation to join him at a campaign-style rally nearby. Three women, still wearing their company-branded hats, waved from the backseat of a minivan in the vice president’s motorcade in a TikTok video posted to Vance’s account with a modest 72,000 views.
也许这是主场作战，或者是他的团队做出了更好的前期筹备。无论如何，万斯的盟友们表示，这位自2023年起才开始担任民选官员的副总统，正在逐渐适应公众对政治的要求。选民们是否注意到了这一点尚不那么明朗。2026年10月11日 / 06:25在鲍灵格林州立大学与舆观调查公司（YouGov）于8月下旬至9月上旬进行的全国民意调查中，53%的独立选民对万斯持不赞成态度，只有29%持赞成态度。在接受MS NOW采访时，一些特朗普支持者对国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥作为2028年竞选人的兴趣显得更高。
Maybe it was home turf, or better advance work by his team. Either way, Vance’s allies say the vice president, who has held elected office only since 2023, is growing into the public demands of politics. Whether voters are noticing is less clear. October 11, 2026 / 06:25 In a national Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll conducted from late August through early September, 53% of independents viewed Vance unfavorably and only 29% favorably. And in interviews with MS NOW, some Trump supporters sounded more excited about Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a 2028 contender.
这并不是因为没有尝试。据一位知情人士透露，近几个月来，万斯为了与美国人建立联系，一直“开足马力”。这些努力包括非正式的社交媒体视频、密集的媒体宣传、一场以信仰为主题的新书巡回宣传以及几次零售店停留。他还采取了比其老板更讲究策略的方法。他承认选民所感受到的经济痛苦，回应针对政府受争议政策的批评，并前往共和党人通常回避的场所接受采访。
It’s not for lack of trying. In recent months, Vance has been “firing on all cylinders” in an effort to connect with Americans, according to a person familiar with the matter. That effort includes informal social media videos, a media blitz, a faith-based book tour and a handful of retail stops. He’s also taking a more tactful approach than his boss. He acknowledges voters’ economic pain, addresses criticism of the administration’s controversial policies and sits for interviews in venues Republicans usually avoid.
随着特朗普的支持率降至历史最低点，且总统经常对选民的经济不满视而不见，这一推动正在进行。对于万斯而言，中期选举将成为他进入2028年选举前测试公众情绪的试金石，届时民调显示他将成为共和党提名的早期领跑者。
The push comes as Trump’s approval ratings sit at an all-time low and the president regularly brushes off voters’ economic frustrations. For Vance, the midterms will double as a test of public sentiment heading into 2028, when polls show him as an early front-runner for the Republican nomination.
一名参与参议院竞选的共和党内部人士要求匿名以便畅所欲言，他表示万斯面临的挑战在于，特朗普的“扩音器”比万斯所说或所做的事情大十倍。
A Republican operative working on Senate campaigns, who requested anonymity to speak freely, said Vance’s challenge is that Trump’s “megaphone is just ten times larger than what Vance is saying or doing.”
“他身处政坛最艰难的岗位之一，经常需要把总统所说或所做的事情进行转化，”这位内部人士说。“我认为他做得不错。这并不容易。问题在于，这能否与中期选举的选民产生共鸣。”
“He’s got one of the toughest jobs in politics, often translating what the president is saying or doing,” the operative said. “I think he’s done that well. It’s not easy. It’s just a question of whether that connects with midterm voters.”
政治学教授罗伯特·亚历山大曾主导绿湾调查的民意测验，他表示铁杆共和党人“对JD万斯感到兴奋”。但“他似乎并未成功赢得独立选民的好感。”在该调查中，特朗普在独立选民中的表现甚至更差，但在共和党人中略好于万斯。
Robert Alexander, a political science professor who directed polling for the Bowling Green survey, said stalwart Republicans are “excited about JD Vance.”But “he doesn’t seem to be moving independents favorably.”In the survey, Trump fared even worse with independents but slightly better than Vance with Republicans.
亚历山大表示，普通选民在想到万斯时，往往会联想到网络“梗”，比如他戴眼线笔的笑话，而不是任何政策。这种矛盾心理在MS NOW的访谈中得以体现。许多特朗普支持者称赞万斯，但有些人对卢比奥有更温暖的评价。
Alexander said the average voter tends to think of internet “memes” when Vance comes to mind, such as jokes that he wears eyeliner, rather than any policy. That ambivalence came through in interviews with MS NOW. Many Trump supporters praised Vance, but several had warmer words for Rubio.
“他说‘他还行’，”俄亥俄州退休居民卢西·汤普森说道，她曾投票支持特朗普，并补充说她对万斯“了解不多”。“我认为卢比奥会更好，”她说，并引用了他的经验作为理由。
“He’s okay,” Lucie Thompson, a retired Ohio resident who voted for Trump, said of Vance, adding that she doesn’t “know much about” him. “I think Rubio would be better,” she said, citing his experience.
爱德华·X·杨（Edward X. Young）自称是特朗普的坚定支持者，并担任新泽西州海洋县布里克镇的共和党委员会成员。他称鲁比奥“充满活力”、“极具魅力”，且比万斯“更有风采”，不过他押注这位副总统最终仍会成为总统候选人。另一位集会参加者、73岁的比尔·泰勒（Bill Taylor）表示：“我喜欢JD·万斯”，并计划在2028年支持他。
Edward X. Young, a self-described die hard Trump supporter who serves as a GOP committee member in Brick Township, Ocean County, New Jersey, referred to Rubio as “dynamic,” “charismatic,” and having “more pizzazz” than Vance, though he bets the vice president will ultimately be the nominee. Another rallygoer, 73-year-old Bill Taylor, said “I like JD Vance” and plans to support him in 2028.
与此同时，他说鲁比奥“不可思议”，并且“干得出类拔萃”。2026年10月11日 / 09:49 21岁的大学生杰克·德怀尔（Jack Dwyer）指出，美国转折点组织已经背书了万斯，但“就我个人而言，我喜欢马可·鲁比奥，我喜欢他在各个方面都活跃得恰到好处”，并提到了他在政府中担任过的多种角色。
At the same time, he said Rubio is “incredible” and “doing just a stellar job.”October 11, 2026 / 09:49 Jack Dwyer, a 21-year-old college student, noted that Turning Point USA has already endorsed Vance, but “I’ll say personally for me, I like Marco Rubio, and I like that he’s all over the place in a good way,” noting the multiple hats he has worn in the administration.
政治战略家、该总统的长期批评者莎拉·朗格韦尔（Sarah Longwell）表示，一些万斯的怀疑论者认为他虚伪，或者在焦点小组中用“怪异”等词来形容他。
Some Vance skeptics say he’s disingenuous or use terms like “weird” to describe him in focus groups, according to Sarah Longwell, a political strategist and longtime critic of the president.
追踪了万斯过去十年政治生涯的俄亥俄州共和党战略家迈克·哈特利（Mike Hartley）反驳了这些定性。“难道我们大家不都有点别扭吗？”他说。“我对其中很多说法不屑一顾，因为我只想：‘好吧，给我找出一个在某些方面不别扭的人来。’”在扩大支持方面“同样”投入就在特朗普要求选民“假装”他在今年11月参选之际，万斯作为党内的法定接班人正承担起更多责任。
Mike Hartley, an Ohio Republican strategist who has followed Vance’s career over the last decade, pushed back on those characterizations. “Aren’t we all awkward?” he said. “I’m dismissive of a lot of that because I just think: ‘Okay, find me a person who isn’t awkward in some regard.’”‘Equally’ involved in outreach While Trump is asking voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot this November, Vance is picking up more responsibility as the party’s heir apparent.
一名因讨论竞选策略而要求匿名的共和党官员表示，万斯“将在竞选之路上和总统一样活跃”。这位官员补充说，该党的希望是，他们的出行能够提高那些原本不会现身的拥护者们的投票率，而两人在这项努力中“同样积极地参与”。这名共和党操盘手表示，如果共和党在中期选举中惨败，且万斯决定在2028年参选，“你就会迎来一个对这一切负有很大责任的未来总统候选人”。他们还补充道：“我非常好奇地想看他将如何度过选举后的阶段。”
A GOP official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss campaign strategy, said that Vance “will be on the campaign trail just as much as the president.”The party’s hope is that their travel will boost turnout amongst their supporters who wouldn’t otherwise show up, and both men are “equally as involved” in that effort, the official added. If Republicans lose badly in the midterms, and Vance decides to run in 2028, “you’ve got a future presidential candidate who owns a lot of this,” the GOP operative said. “I’m very curious to see how he navigates post-election,” they added.
据这名共和党官员透露，特朗普和万斯在竞选活动中的行程是被战略性地安排的，以避免前往根据民调显示他们的出现可能会对当地候选人产生不利影响的地点。
Trump and Vance are being dispatched on the campaign trail strategically to avoid locations where their presence may be hurtful to local candidates based on polling, according to the GOP official.
根据公共记录，万斯今年大部分时间都在中西部地区奔走，这迎合了他作为一名作家的崛起——他曾以作家身份为人们了解美国工人阶级的怨气提供了一个窗口。但即便在他的家乡俄亥俄州，万斯的满意度也处于水面以下，尽管他的支持率比特朗普或其他俄亥俄州知名的共和党议员更高。
Vance has mostly spent time traveling to the Midwest this year, according to public records , a nod to his rise to public prominence as a writer offering a window into the grievances of working-class Americans. But even in his home state of Ohio, Vance’s favorability is underwater , although he’s more favorable than Trump or other prominent Ohio GOP lawmakers.
当被问及万斯是否能利用这些较高的评分来帮助该州选票上顺位靠前的共和党人时，常驻俄亥俄州的教授亚历山大表示：“我认为人们根本就没在谈论JD·万斯。”他补充说：“我只是觉得他本身并没有什么吸引力。”“他正在四处奔走”万斯的媒体亮相行程除了共和党政客常去的保守派电视网外，还包括美国广播公司的《观点》节目、HBO的《比尔·马赫实时沼泽》以及广受欢迎的自助类YouTube节目《首席执行官日记》。
When asked if Vance could leverage those higher marks to help down-ballot Republicans in the state, Alexander, the Ohio-based professor, said “I don’t think people are talking about JD Vance at all.”He added: “I just don’t think he’s got a lot of juice, per se.”‘He’s out there’Vance’s media circuit has included ABC’s “The View,” HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher,” and the popular self-help YouTube show “The Diary of a CEO,” in addition to the usual stops for Republican politicians on conservative networks.
万斯还上了乔·罗根排名第一的播客节目，一些人将这个平台归功于它帮助特朗普赢得了2024年总统选举。
Vance also went on Joe Rogan’s top-ranked podcast, a venue that some credited with helping Trump win the 2024 presidential election.
一名白宫官员此前向MS NOW表示，罗根的节目可能会成为总统在期中选举前再次登上的一个平台，但在距离选举日仅剩四周之际，目前只有万斯的亮相得以实现。罗根显著地开始批评特朗普的关键政策，包括关税以及他的大规模驱逐出境运动。主持人们就与伊朗的战争、移民以及杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的文件向万斯进行了追问。
A White House official previously told MS NOW that Rogan’s show could be a platform that the president returned to before the midterms, but only Vance’s appearance has materialized with just four weeks until Election Day. Rogan has notably grown critical of key Trump policies, including tariffs and his mass deportation campaign. The hosts pressed Vance on the war with Iran, immigration and the Jeffrey Epstein files.
21岁的纽约人科宾·沃尔特斯是一名零售业员工，曾参加特朗普近来在纽约举行的集会，他说自己在社交媒体上看到了“很多关于”万斯的剪辑，尤其是播客采访片段。“他在积极露面。我很喜欢他这一点，”沃尔特斯说。
Corbin Walters, a 21-year-old New Yorker who works in retail and attended Trump’s recent rally in New York, says he’s seen “a lot of clips” of Vance on social media, particularly from podcast interviews. “He’s out there. I like that about him,” Walters said.
支持万斯的共和党战略师、前特朗普政府官员马特·莫尔斯表示，万斯是一个“聪明、注重政策的人”，“长篇访谈的机会很适合他”。
Matt Mowers, a Republican strategist and former Trump official who supports Vance, says Vance is a “smart, policy-driven person” and “long-form opportunities serve him well.”
莫尔斯还说，他“愿意前往任何角落”来传达该党的讯息并争取持怀疑态度的人。“他不仅专注于保守派，”一名知情人士表示，“他是真的相信去[接触]整个国家。”
He’s “willing to go to any corner” to bring the party’s message out and court skeptics, Mowers added. “He’s not just focused on conservatives,” a person familiar with the matter said, “he really believes in [reaching] the country as a whole.”
与媒体名人的针锋相对可能会在选民心中弥合万斯在2022年转向MAGA（让美国再次伟大）政治之前，对特朗普先前所做批评性评论之间的鸿沟。这也契合了万斯的耶鲁法学院背景和辩论技巧。“他在其中甘之如饴，”该知情人士在谈到不友好的媒体空间时说。“他确实是在发挥自己的优势，扮演白宫在线上线下兼具的斗士角色，”曾在马尔科·鲁比奥2016年总统竞选期间负责数字战略的埃里克·威尔逊说。
Contentious engagements with media personalities could serve to bridge the gap for voters between Vance’s previously critical comments about Trump prior to his 2022 conversion into MAGA politics. It also lends itself to Vance’s Yale Law School background and debate skills. “He has fun with them,” the person said, referring to non-friendly media spaces. “He really is playing to his strengths as kind of both the in-person and online brawler for the White House,” said Eric Wilson, who ran Marco Rubio’s digital strategy during his 2016 presidential campaign.
“我们在过去几年中看到的重大启示之一，就是做自己并展现个性确实大有裨益，因为那些不接受自我的政客很快就会被识破。”2026年10月11日 / 03:05现年42岁的万斯年龄几乎只有特朗普的一半。众所周知，他经常上网，经常在X平台上回击批评者，尽管他在今年早些时候曾短暂离开过该平台。在另一段近期的TikTok视频中，万斯解释了他为什么认为Netflix的浪漫喜剧剧集《艾米丽在巴黎》是“美国电视的一部杰作”，并称该剧是“对千禧一代决策机制的一次巨大文化批判”。
“One of the big takeaways that we’ve seen in the last several years is that it really pays to be yourself and have your own personality, because the politicians that don’t embrace who they are, get detected pretty quickly.”October 11, 2026 / 03:05 Vance, at 42, is nearly half of Trump’s age. He is known to be chronically online, frequently taking jabs against his critics on X, though he took a break from the platform earlier this year. In another recent TikTok video , Vance described why he believes Netflix’s rom-com series “Emily in Paris” is a “masterwork of American television,” calling the show a “massive cultural criticism of millennial decision-making.”
截至周日，该视频在该平台上获得了大约43万次观看，在其他社交媒体网站上也获得了更多观看。这位副总统对网络短视频经济的拥抱在2028年大选前可能会产生更持久的影响。共和党数字战略家威尔逊预测：“那些非公开的竞选行程是20世纪90年代和21天纪元初风格的竞选报道的虚饰，这类报道正在逐渐淘汰。他能够参加这些播客节目、制造出适合剪辑的片段，并发布值得做成模因的内容，这可能才是他更大的优势，而这也是他正在倾注精力的方向。”
It garnered some 430,000 views on the platform, as of Sunday, and more across other social-media websites. The vice president’s embrace of the online clip-economy could have more staying power ahead of 2028. “Those off-the-record stops are an artifice of the ’90s, early 2000s-style of campaign coverage that is sort of on the way out,” Wilson, the GOP digital strategist, predicts. “His ability to be able to go into these podcasts and produce these clip-able moments, and be able to post meme-worthy stuff is probably the better strength, and that’s what he’s leaning into.”
莫尔斯认为，传统的零售政治尚未完全被淘汰。他说：“人与人之间的联系依然是驱动政治的动力。无论是人们亲自与候选人见面，还是看到候选人与其他人的会面；在人类层面上与他人建立联系；这些都是他们能够与候选人建立联系的方式。”
Mowers believes retail politics isn’t quite on its way out the door yet. “Human connection is still what drives politics,” he says. “Whether people meet the candidate themselves, or they see the candidate meeting others; connecting on a human level with others; those are the ways in which they can connect with candidates.”
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