印度通过限制向化肥厂、炼油厂和工业用户的供应来保护城市燃气供应，因为中东冲突扰乱了液化天然气（LNG）的运输，而咨询公司伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）表示，南亚整体LNG需求现在预计将在2026年下降约600万吨。
India has protected city gas supplies by curbing deliveries to fertiliser plants, refineries and industrial users as the Middle East conflict disrupts liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, while South Asia's overall LNG demand is now expected to fall by about 6 million tonnes in 2026, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.
该地区的LNG需求此前被预测为今年将增长270万吨，即7%。霍尔木兹海峡的关闭以及对卡塔尔和阿联酋供应的干扰扭转了这一前景，迫使各国政府实施燃气配给、寻求昂贵的替代货物并承担日益增加的财政成本，伍德麦肯兹表示。
The region's LNG demand had earlier been projected to grow by 2.7 million tonnes, or 7%, this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruption to Qatari and United Arab Emirates supplies have reversed that outlook, forcing governments to ration gas, seek expensive replacement cargoes and absorb mounting fiscal costs, Wood Mackenzie said.
“印度通过实施分层需求管理策略，相对表现较好，该策略使城市燃气分配不受影响，同时在3月和4月削减了向化肥、炼油和工业部门的供应，”该公司在一份报告中表示。
"India fared relatively better by deploying a tiered demand-management strategy that kept city gas distribution unaffected while cutting supply to the fertiliser, refinery, and industrial sectors in March and April," it said in a report.
政府补贴有助于维持化肥生产，日尿素产量增加了1.2万至1.5万吨。根据咨询公司的数据，5月和6月的月产量分别达到创纪录的251.9万吨和253.7万吨。
Government subsidies helped sustain fertiliser production, with daily urea output rising by 12,000-15,000 tonnes. Monthly production reached record highs of 25.19 lakh tonnes in May and 25.37 lakh tonnes in June, according to the consultancy.
然而，印度未能逃脱价格冲击。3月至6月期间，LNG招标授价在每百万英热单位（mmBtu）16.8至18.8美元之间波动，随后在9月升至每mmBtu 26.4美元。伍德麦肯兹表示，在此期间LNG招标的需求始终保持强劲。
However, India has not escaped the price shock. LNG tender award prices ranged from $16.8 to $18.8 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) between March and June, before rising to $26.4 per mmBtu in September. Demand for LNG tenders remained robust throughout the period, Wood Mackenzie said.
由于对海湾供应的依赖，巴基斯坦和孟加拉国受到的冲击更大。2025年，卡塔尔占巴基斯坦LNG进口的99%，以及孟加拉国LNG进口的70%以上，使两国都高度暴露于霍尔木兹海峡的中断风险。
The disruption has hit Pakistan and Bangladesh harder because of their dependence on Gulf supplies. In 2025, Qatar accounted for 99% of Pakistan's LNG imports and more than 70% of Bangladesh's, leaving both countries highly exposed to interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
伍德麦肯兹表示，2025年经霍尔木兹海峡运输的卡塔尔和阿联酋LNG货物中，近90%目的地为亚洲，使该地区特别容易受到供应冲击的影响。
Nearly 90% of Qatari and UAE LNG shipments transiting the strait in 2025 were destined for Asia, making the region particularly vulnerable to the supply shock, Wood Mackenzie said.
根据该咨询公司的数据，现货价格相对于合同LNG价格的飙升，导致孟加拉国天然气需求减少超过300万吨，印度和巴基斯坦各自减少约150万吨。
The resulting surge in spot prices relative to contracted LNG prices contributed to a reduction in gas demand of more than 3 million tonnes in Bangladesh and about 1.5 million tonnes each in India and Pakistan, according to the consultancy.
伍德麦肯兹天然气及LNG研究主管约翰逊·夸德罗斯表示：“中东冲突赤裸裸地暴露了南亚LNG市场的结构性脆弱性。那些实现了供应来源多元化并建立了多种定价机制的国家，度过这场危机的状况要好得多。”伍德麦肯兹称，巴基斯坦是受冲击最严重的市场之一，霍尔木兹海峡中断导致运往该国的LNG供应量在2026年3月至11月间每月减少多达40万吨。巴基斯坦通过削减需求、转换燃料和释放先前扣留的国内天然气作出回应，导致天然气需求损毁超过250万吨。
"The Middle East conflict has exposed the structural vulnerabilities of South Asian LNG markets in stark terms," said Johnson Quadros, head of gas and LNG research at Wood Mackenzie. "Countries that had diversified their supply sources and established multiple pricing mechanisms came through this crisis in far better shape than those that had not." Pakistan has been among the hardest-hit markets, with the Hormuz disruption reducing LNG supplies bound for the country by as much as 0.4 million tonnes per month between March and November 2026. It responded by curtailing demand, switching fuels and releasing previously withheld domestic gas, resulting in more than 2.5 million tonnes of gas demand destruction, Wood Mackenzie said.
巴基斯坦在缺席两年后于4月重返LNG现货市场，但高价限制了其获取替代货物的能力。无论LNG货物是否抵达，巴基斯坦仍需承担每日浮式储存再气化装置（FSRU）的“船到付款”费用，这加重了财务负担。
Pakistan returned to the spot LNG market in April after a two-year absence, but high prices limited its ability to secure replacement cargoes. It also remains liable for daily floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) take-or-pay charges regardless of whether LNG cargoes arrive, adding to the financial burden.
伍德麦肯兹将巴基斯坦2027年LNG需求预测从2025年的660万吨下调至370万吨。预计至2030年，已承诺LNG量将超过需求，而未签约量预计将在2030年代初占比超过90%。
Wood Mackenzie has cut its forecast for Pakistan's LNG demand to 3.7 million tonnes in 2027, from 6.6 million tonnes in 2025. Committed LNG volumes are expected to exceed demand through 2030, while uncontracted volumes are projected to account for more than 90% by the early 2030s.
与此同时，孟加拉国因国内天然气增产空间有限且缺乏多元化进口选择，难以替代中断的供应。天然气短缺引发长时间停电，并加剧了对煤炭的依赖。
Bangladesh, meanwhile, has struggled to replace disrupted supplies because of limited scope to increase domestic gas production and a lack of diversified import options. Gas shortages triggered prolonged power outages and greater reliance on coal.
国有石油公司Petrobangla以每百万英热单位23-28美元的价格从Gunvor和Vitol处购买了用于3月交付的现货LNG货物。Wood Mackenzie表示，在3月至6月期间，孟加拉国一直为现货LNG支付超过每百万英热单位18美元的平均价格，这给政府补贴带来了额外压力。
State-owned Petrobangla bought spot LNG cargoes from Gunvor and Vitol for March delivery at $23-28 per mmBtu. Between March and June, Bangladesh consistently paid an average of more than $18 per mmBtu for spot LNG, putting additional pressure on government subsidies, Wood Mackenzie said.
南亚各国政府通过气体配给、停电、提高电价和追加预算拨款作出回应。但该咨询公司警告称，这些措施只是推迟了成本，而未能解决根本脆弱性，因为能源账单上涨和工业供应中断正在给消费者、企业和公共财政带来进一步压力。
Governments across South Asia have responded with gas rationing, power cuts, tariff increases and additional budget allocations. But the consultancy warned that such measures defer costs rather than resolve the underlying vulnerabilities, as rising energy bills and disrupted industrial supplies put further pressure on consumers, businesses and public finances.
冲突的持续时间仍然是一个关键不确定因素。Wood Mackenzie表示，如果中断持续，各国政府可能面临在能源安全、消费者保护和财政稳定之间做出越来越艰难的选择。
The duration of the conflict remains a key uncertainty. If disruptions persist, governments could face increasingly difficult choices between energy security, consumer protection and fiscal stability, Wood Mackenzie said.
这场危机还威胁到该地区长期天然气需求前景。Wood Mackenzie预计，可负担的LNG将是支持全球需求在2040年前增长60%的关键，而南亚和东南亚将是这一扩张的核心。
The crisis also threatens the region's longer-term gas demand outlook. Wood Mackenzie expects affordable LNG to be essential to support global demand growth of 60% through 2040, with South and Southeast Asia central to that expansion.
Quadros表示：“可负担的LNG是推动我们预计在2040年前实现60%需求增长的关键，而南亚和东南亚经济体是这一轨迹的核心。”“今天的供应危机与明天的过剩供应风险之间的脱节，给买家和卖家都带来了真正的不确定性。那些不吸取2026年在多元化、灵活定价、基础设施韧性和建立交易能力方面经验的买家，将面临再次陷入同样脆弱性的风险——而此时的市场将更大、更加互联。”
"Affordable LNG is essential to drive the 60% demand growth we expect through 2040, and South and Southeast Asian economies are central to that trajectory," Quadros said. "The disconnect between today's supply crisis and tomorrow's risk of oversupply creates real uncertainty for both buyers and sellers. Buyers who do not act on the lessons of 2026 on diversification, on flexible pricing, on infrastructure resilience and on building trading capabilities risk facing the same vulnerabilities again, in a market that will be even larger and more interconnected."