关键观点：新兴亚洲是液化天然气（LNG）市场的未来——然而这一趋势在当前现实中似乎尚未真正显现。
Asia is the future of the LNG market — one that never seems to show up in present-day reality. Consider the history.
回顾历史：至少在过去十年里，液化天然气市场的主要增长动力来自少数几个亚洲国家，这些国家的国内天然气资源正在逐渐枯竭。壳牌公司在2017年首次发布的LNG市场展望报告中，将泰国、孟加拉国、菲律宾和越南列为主要的增长来源国。
For at least a decade, the big growth story for shipped natural gas has focused on a handful of mostly Asian countries whose domestic fields are declining. In its inaugural outlook for LNG in 2017, Shell Plc called out Thailand, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam among leading sources of growth.
最新预测：在霍尔木兹海峡危机引发市场动荡后，壳牌公司发布了最新的预测报告。报告指出，到本世纪中叶，南亚和东南亚地区将占据全球液化天然气进口总量的约40%，并贡献超过当前需求量的三分之二。
The same four countries loom large in its latest projections, published after the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz sent shockwaves through the market. South and Southeast Asia will make up about 40% of LNG imports by the middle of this century, Shell says, accounting for more than two-thirds of additional demand beyond current levels.
亚洲政府的反应：由于高昂的成本和供应不确定性，许多亚洲政府对这些预测持怀疑态度，甚至开始重新评估相关战略。
Stung by high costs and supply uncertainty, Asian governments are busy throwing those forecasts on the bonfire. Thailand is the most prominent example.
泰国的例子：从表面上看，泰国堪称天然气市场的典范：该国在20世纪80至90年代的经济繁荣在很大程度上得益于国内天然气资源的开发。目前，甲烷仍占泰国电力供应的近三分之二——这一比例远高于美国和俄罗斯等天然气消费大国。在壳牌的最新预测中，泰国被视为新兴亚洲地区最具发展潜力的国家；到2040年，泰国的液化天然气进口量将比现在增加五倍。
On paper, the country is a paragon of the gas market. Its economic boom in the 1980s and 1990s can largely be attributed to the opening up of domestic fields. Methane still provides almost two-thirds of electricity, a larger share than you’ll see in gas-fueled giants like the US and Russia. In Shell’s latest outlook, it’s the most exciting prospect in emerging Asia, with LNG imports five times higher in 2040 than they are now.
曼谷另有打算。根据政府本月早些时候发布的最新电力市场计划草案，未来十年内，可再生能源在电网中的占比将从20%提升至50%，并在2050年前后进一步攀升至最高89%。这一转变的核心原因是什么？用能源部长阿卡特·蓬潘的话说，是为了减少对“昂贵且价格波动剧烈的现货液化天然气进口”的依赖。它绝非孤例。看看孟加拉国，这是壳牌在该地区排名第二的未来增长市场。
Bangkok has other ideas. Under the government’s latest power market plan, released in draft form earlier this month, renewable energy will increase to 50% from 20% of the grid within the next decade, before rising as high as 89% around 2050. A core reason for the shift? In the words of Energy Minister Akanat Promphan, to reduce reliance on “expensive and volatile spot LNG imports.”It’s far from alone. Look at Bangladesh, Shell’s second-ranked future growth market in the region.
正如我们此前报道的那样，其对液化天然气的依赖近期已将经济推向崩溃边缘。据总理塔里克·拉赫曼称，解决这场危机的主要方案是增加太阳能发电，并开放海上天然气勘探区块，以榨取国内气田最后的残余资源。他本月早些时候在议会表示：“我们将不再是进口能源的消费者，而将成为太阳能的生产者。”
Its dependence on LNG has been pushing the economy to the brink in recent weeks, as we've written. The main plan for solving that crisis is to increase solar power generation and open up offshore gas exploration blocs to eke out the last dregs from its domestic fields, according to Prime Minister Tarique Rahman. “We will no longer be consumers of imported energy. We will be solar power producers,” he told parliament earlier this month.
其他所谓的繁荣之地情况也不容乐观。菲律宾正转向使用天然气作为可再生能源的备用支撑，而非如最初设想的那样将其作为电力系统的核心。在越南，一支庞大的承诺液化天然气船队正日益沦为搁浅资产，政府正抵制开发商提出的异常采购承诺要求，后者要求政府保证高达95%的销量，期限长达25年。
Other purported boomtowns aren’t looking much better. The Philippines has been shifting toward using gas to backstop renewables rather than as the core of its power system, as once envisaged. In Vietnam, a huge promised LNG fleet is looking increasingly stranded, with the government resisting developer demands for extraordinary purchase promises guaranteeing as much as 95% of their sales for up to 25 years.
综合来看，这一局面对于天然气生产商而言相当令人沮丧。这些退缩并非由追求净零排放的意识形态驱动。事实上，相关政府过去几十年的经济增长在很大程度上得益于开发国内化石燃料储量。相反，这些转变的核心在于液化天然气未能兑现其关于可靠性和可负担性的承诺。
Add all this up and the picture looks pretty demoralizing for gas producers. None of these retreats are being driven by ideological attempts to hit net zero. Indeed, the governments in question all owe much of their growth in recent decades to exploiting domestic fossil-fuel reserves. Instead, they center around LNG’s failure to deliver on a promise of reliability and affordability.
陷入这样的困境实在令人无奈。在过去十年中，反对推进零碳电力发展、主张将天然气作为“过渡性燃料”的主要论点一直围绕着“能源三难问题”：即能源来源必须同时具备清洁、廉价和安全的特性。对能源消费者来说，仅仅一个风电场的排放量低是不够的；该风电场还必须价格合理，并能在需要时随时提供电力。
That’s a devastating position to be trapped in. For most of the past decade, the most powerful argument against the march of zero-carbon electricity in favor of using gas as a compromise “bridge fuel” has centered on the energy trilemma — the idea that power sources must be both clean, cheap and secure. For consumers of energy, it’s not enough that a wind farm has low emissions: It also needs to be more affordable and available whenever it’s needed.
如今，液化天然气（LNG）在这三个方面都未能满足要求：它从来都不是清洁的能源；而且价格也越来越昂贵——仅为现有发电厂购买天然气所需的费用，可能就已经超过了从零开始建设一个全新的太阳能+储能系统的成本。至于安全性问题，当伊朗无人机封锁了全球约五分之一的天然气市场后，这一论点彻底站不住脚了——亚洲的进口国因此陷入了停电和电力短缺的困境。
Nowadays, LNG is failing on all three. It’s never been clean, but these days it’s not cheap, either: Just buying the gas for an existing plant can cost more than building a brand-new solar-plus-storage system from scratch. As for security, that argument fell apart the moment Iranian drones closed off roughly a fifth of the global market, plunging Asian importers into blackouts and power rationing.
在这种背景下，越南之所以拒绝接受液化天然气开发商提出的条件也就不足为奇了。即便不考虑环境因素，如果该项目连在需要时都无法保证供电，河内为何要承担长达25年的固定采购费用呢？
Given the backdrop, it’s not hard to see why Vietnam is balking over the terms sought by its LNG developers. Even setting aside environmental considerations, why would Hanoi pay over the odds for 25 years of guaranteed purchases, if the project in question can’t even promise to deliver power when necessary?
在新兴亚洲市场，液化天然气最合理的用途或许根本不是作为能源使用，而应被视为生产化肥和石油的原材料，以及为那些难以通过电力供应的产业（如玻璃和陶瓷行业）提供热能的来源。
At this point, the best argument for LNG in emerging Asia is that it isn’t an energy source at all. Instead, it’s best seen as a raw material for fertilizer and oil refining, and a source of heat for products like glass and ceramics that are hard to electrify.
越来越难以相信的是，那些液化天然气生产商们期待已久的巨大新市场其实并不存在。新兴亚洲市场作为液化天然气的主要需求来源，其地位也只会维持一段时间而已。最终，这种比其他替代燃料更脏、更昂贵、安全性更低的能源，终将失去其市场竞争力。
What looks increasingly implausible is the vast new market in power generation that producers have spent a decade waiting for. Emerging Asia can remain the future of LNG for only so long. Eventually, a fuel that is dirtier, dearer and less secure than the alternatives runs out of tomorrows. OPIN