新加坡，10月12日——随着地缘政治冲击、设备短缺以及更便宜的可再生能源使项目受阻，新兴亚洲对液化天然气发电的需求正在减弱，令业界对该地区将推动下一波需求的期待落空。
SINGAPORE, Oct 12 - Emerging Asia is losing its appetite for liquefied natural gas to generate power as geopolitical shocks, equipment shortages and cheaper renewables derail projects, disappointing industry hopes the region would drive the next wave of demand.
包括越南和菲律宾在内的多个国家曾计划建设新的液化天然气进口终端和发电厂，以满足需求增长并实现从煤炭的转型，但俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰以及持续的美伊战争导致价格飙升，暴露了对液化天然气依赖的风险。
Countries including Vietnam and the Philippines had planned new LNG import terminals and power plants to meet rising demand and transition from coal, but the market shocks of Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion and the ongoing US-Iran war sent prices soaring, exposing the risks of LNG reliance.
此后，该地区的若干项目陷入停滞，其他项目的建设进度也落后于目标，全球燃气轮机短缺进一步加剧了放缓趋势。
Since then, several projects in the region have stalled while buildout plans for others have fallen behind targets, with a global gas turbine shortage contributing to the slowdown.
随着可再生能源发电成本下降，各国政府正加快清洁能源部署，以削减对进口燃料的依赖。国际能源署在10月的预测中指出，至2030年，风能和太阳能将在东南亚能源结构中的比重将提升至11%，高于2025年的5%。
With renewable generation costs falling, governments are accelerating their clean energy deployment to cut import fuel dependency. The International Energy Agency forecast in October that wind and solar energy will contribute 11% of Southeast Asia's energy mix by 2030, up from 5% in 2025.
“随着燃气项目延误增加且供应链收紧，政策制定者被迫重新思考燃气在短期内的角色，以及实现能源转型目标的长期路径，”伍德麦肯锡东南亚电力与可再生能源分析师魏汉坦表示。
"As gas project delays mount and supply chains tighten, policymakers are being forced to rethink not only the role of gas in the near term, but also the long-term pathways to achieving their energy transition goals," said Wei Han Tan, Southeast Asia power and renewables analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
“各国需要在其他方面寻找满足需求的途径，”他补充道，并指出要在现有煤电机组的基础上增加容量并加速可再生能源的部署。
"Countries will need to look elsewhere to meet rising demand", he said, by adding to existing coal fleets and speeding up renewables deployment.
伍德麦肯锡估计，东南亚计划中的53吉瓦燃气发电项目中，仅有14.9吉瓦有望在2030年前投产，其中越南的项目缺口最大，约有25.7吉瓦的项目不太可能在此时启动。
Wood Mackenzie estimates that only 14.9 gigawatts of Southeast Asia's planned 53 GW of gas-fired power projects in the pipeline will come online by 2030, with Vietnam seeing the biggest shortfall in projects with 25.7 GW unlikely to start by then.
能源智库Ember的数据显示，即使在伊朗战争之前，燃气发电在一些新兴亚洲经济体中就已经失去优势。过去五年，随着煤炭和可再生能源的扩张，孟加拉国、巴基斯坦和印度的燃气发电量有所下降，而燃气在中国能源结构中的份额也难以扩大。
Even before the Iran war, gas-fired power generation was losing ground across some emerging Asian economies, data from energy think tank Ember shows. Gas-fired power output has declined in Bangladesh, Pakistan and India in the last five years as coal and renewables expand, while gas has struggled to expand its share of China's power mix.
在东南亚，过去十年燃气发电量基本保持稳定，但其份额却因可再生能源容量的扩张而稳步下降。
In Southeast Asia, gas generation volumes have been stable in the last decade, but have steadily lost share to expanding renewable capacity.
转型进行时 自美国和以色列对伊朗的战争于2月28日爆发以来，新兴亚洲市场加快了对替代能源的规划。孟加拉国和泰国宣布了太阳能推广计划，而越南正考虑增加燃煤发电。
TRANSITION NOW Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, emerging Asian markets have accelerated plans for alternative power sources. Bangladesh and Thailand announced solar rollout plans, while Vietnam is considering increasing coal-fired generation.
泰国进口的液化天然气（LNG）有五分之一来自卡塔尔，其能源部长上个月对路透社表示，该国必须确保短期内的替代供应，同时在长期内加快能源转型。
Thailand, which imports a fifth of its LNG from Qatar, must secure alternative near-term supplies but speed its energy transition in the long run, its energy minister told Reuters last month.
在菲律宾，为抵消高电价而安装的屋顶太阳能系统正在增加，而过去两年内，至少有三个与LNG相关的项目已被叫停。
In the Philippines, rooftop solar installations to offset high electricity prices are rising, while at least three LNG-related projects there have been halted in the last two years.
菲律宾的一项项目在开发商能源世界公司（Energy World Corp）将其电厂的燃气轮机以近十年前购买价格的近四倍价格出售后陷入停滞，该公司表示，可再生能源的快速增长正在减少对燃气发电的需求。根据其网站，该公司计划将该场地建设为进口终端。
One project in the Philippines stalled after developer Energy World Corp sold the gas turbine for its power plant for nearly four times what it paid a decade ago, saying rapid renewable energy growth was reducing the need for gas-fired generation. The company intends to build the site as an import terminal, according to its website.
JERA全球能源解决方案公司首席执行官伊尔蒂扎·赛义德（Irtiza Sayyed）表示，新兴经济体在全球与数据中心竞争燃气轮机的背景下，电力基础设施的发展正在放缓。JERA是日本最大的发电商，正计划在南亚和东南亚销售液化天然气。
Irtiza Sayyed, the chief executive of JERA Global Energy Solutions, said power infrastructure development in emerging economies has slowed as they compete globally with data centres for gas turbines. JERA is Japan's top power generator and is looking to sell LNG in South and Southeast Asia.
降低波动性 当然，随着经济增长和国内天然气产量下降，新兴亚洲整体液化天然气需求仍可能上升。伍德麦肯兹预测，东南亚消费量将从2025年的2700万吨增至2028年的3900万吨。
REDUCE VOLATILITY To be sure, overall LNG demand in emerging Asia is still likely to rise as economies grow and domestic gas production wanes, with Wood Mackenzie forecasting Southeast Asian consumption rising to 39 million metric tons by 2028, from 27 million in 2025.
液化天然气的支持者还表示，天然气对于电网可靠性和灵活发电是必要的，而规划中的数据中心容量可能提升电力部门需求。
LNG proponents also say gas is needed for grid reliability and flexible power generation, while planned data centre capacity could boost power-sector demand.
但瑞士能源咨询公司分析师卢明庞表示，在天然气价格不确定性的背景下，规划未来十年的政府可能会转向更多可再生能源。
But governments planning for the next decade will likely turn to additional renewable energy amid gas price uncertainty, said Rystad Energy analyst Lu Ming Pang.
该公司已将2040年的亚洲长期液化天然气需求预测下调3%，2045年下调7%，原因是包括越南和菲律宾在内的国家尚未获得足够的液化天然气供应协议和基础设施，而中国则正加速其可再生能源建设。
The firm has cut its long-term Asia LNG demand forecasts by 3% for 2040, and 7% by 2045, as countries including Vietnam and the Philippines have not secured sufficient LNG supply deals and infrastructure, while China accelerates its renewable energy buildout.