东京 —— 由于天然气价格高企推动需求创纪录，而印度尼西亚和澳大利亚的出口前景充满不确定性，今年以来发电用煤价格已上涨约 40%。
TOKYO -- The price of coal for power generation has risen roughly 40% since the start of this year as high natural gas prices drive record demand, even as uncertainty hangs over exports from Indonesia and Australia.
伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，作为亚洲基准的澳大利亚优质动力煤近期期货价格在每公吨 150 美元左右交易，此前曾于 10 月 6 日触及每公吨约 152 美元。上周的涨幅追平了 6 月的高点，为 2023 年 12 月以来最高。
Near-term futures for high-grade Australian thermal coal, and Asian benchmark, are trading around $150 per metric ton after touching roughly $152 per metric ton on Oct. 6, LSEG data shows. Last week's rise matched June's high, which was the most since December 2023.
国际能源署（IEA）9 月发布的预测显示，受伊朗战争导致的能源供应中断支撑，今年全球动力煤需求有望达到 89.4 亿吨的纪录水平，较 2025 年增长 1.2%。
Thermal coal has been underpinned by the energy supply disruption from the Iran war. Worldwide demand for the fuel this year is on track to set a record at 8.94 billion tons, a 1.2% rise from 2025 levels, according to an International Energy Agency forecast released in September.
随着霍尔木兹海峡封锁推高液化天然气（LNG）价格，煤炭成为印度和巴基斯坦等国更廉价的替代选择，这两国高度依赖来自中东的液化天然气。
With the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz pushing up prices for liquefied natural gas, coal represents a cheaper alternative for India and Pakistan in particular, which are both highly dependent on LNG from the Middle East.
然而，需求无法完全解释价格上涨。澳大利亚市场研究公司 Commodity Insights 总监马克·格雷斯韦尔（Mark Gresswell）表示，供应才是最大因素，而非需求。
Demand alone cannot explain the price rise, however. Supply is the biggest factor, not demand, according to Mark Gresswell, director of Australian market research firm Commodity Insights.
作为全球主要产煤国之一，印度尼西亚的出口停滞不前，因政府收紧了采矿计划审批标准并强化了国内供应义务。Commodity Insights 预计，该国 2026 年出口量将降至 4.5 亿吨，同比下降约 10% 或更多，这是基于上月疲软的出口水平推算的。
Exports from Indonesia, one of the world's top coal producers, have stagnated as the government has toughened approval criteria for mining plans and tightened domestic supply obligations. Commodity Insights projects the country's 2026 export volume coming to 450 million tons, down roughly 10% on the year, or less, based on weak export levels last month.
格雷斯韦尔称，自 2000 年以来，在煤价涨幅超过 20% 的年份中，出口量下降尚属首例。印度尼西亚历来充当缓冲角色，在需求和价格上升时增加供应。出口下降削弱了其供应能力。
Since 2000, there has been no precedent for exports falling during a year in which coal prices rose more than 20%, Gresswell said. Indonesia has historically been a buffer that increases supply when demand and prices rise. The decline in exports has weakened its supply capacity.
澳大利亚作为另一个主要煤炭出口国，同样面临供应不确定性。上周，该国高等法院维持了下级法院的判决，裁定新南威尔士州芒特普莱森特煤矿（Mount Pleasant Coal Mine）将开采期限延长至12月之后的决定无效，驳回了运营商的上诉。由日本电力公司出资的日本煤炭开发株式会社（Japan Coal Development）持有该矿山的股份。
Australia, another big coal exporter, also faces supply uncertainty. Last week, the country's High Court upheld a lower court's decision to invalidate extending the mining period past December at Mount Pleasant Coal Mine in the state of New South Wales, dismissing the operator's appeal. Japan Coal Development, which is backed by Japanese power companies, owns a stake in the mine.
与此同时，新南威尔士州另一座由嘉能可（Glencore）和扬科尔澳大利亚公司（Yancoal Australia）运营的煤矿的开采延期申请，于上月获该州独立规划委员会批准。
Meanwhile, a mining extension at another coal mine in New South Wales, operated by Glencore and Yancoal Australia, was approved last month by the state's independent planning committee.
“该裁决不会立即叫停澳大利亚的煤矿开发，”日本咨询公司Energy Cross Execute总裁古川正隆（Masataka Furukawa）表示。“但政策和司法判断对资源出口国供应前景的影响比以往更大，值得关注。”在日本，也出现了利用现有火力发电厂的趋势，包括暂时放宽对低效率燃煤电厂运行的限制。
"The ruling doesn't immediately stop coal mine development in Australia," said Masataka Furukawa, president at Japanese consulting firm Energy Cross Execute. "But policy and judicial decisions are having an even greater impact than before on the supply outlook for resource exporters, and they warrant attention." In Japan, there has also been a trend toward using existing thermal power plants, including by temporarily easing restrictions on operating inefficient coal power plants.
“这再次提醒了我们燃煤发电在紧急情况下的实用性，”电源开发株式会社（J-Power）社长加藤英明（Hideaki Kato）表示。
"This is a reminder of the usefulness of coal power during emergencies," said Hideaki Kato, CEO of Electric Power Development Co., or J-Power.
“维持供电能力既需要发电设施，也需要燃料供应链，”总部位于东京的国际环境经济研究所理事竹内纯子（Sumiko Takeuchi）表示。“维持发电设施的制度完善正在推进，但维持支撑燃料采购的供应网络并非易事。”
"Both generation facilities and fuel supply chains are needed to maintain [power] supply capacity," said Sumiko Takeuchi, a director at the Tokyo-based International Environment and Economy Institute. "Institutional improvements toward maintaining power generation facilities are in progress, but maintaining the supply network that supports fuel procurement is not easy."