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沙特阿拉伯的决心,以及对“永久战争”的担忧Saudi Arabia’s resolve, and fears of a ‘forever war’

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现场利雅得季——这场沙特首都最大规模的活动组合一直是其旅游推动的关键——将在下周开启,届时将有音乐会、UFC、类似Epcot的世界大道,以及世界排名最高的网球选手参加六王大满贯赛。

The Scene Riyadh Season — the Saudi capital’s biggest suite of events that had been key to its tourism push — opens next week with concerts, UFC, the Epcot-esque Boulevard World, and the world’s top ranked tennis players set to compete at the Six Kings Slam.

自2019年以来,它一直是回答“利雅得是否值得一去”的首都标志。胡塞武装在周末的袭击后,居民们也在自问同样的问题。

Since 2019, it has been the capital’s answer to anyone asking whether Riyadh is the place to be. After the Houthi strikes over the weekend, residents are asking themselves the same question.

法赫德国王路的车流变得更轻,一些公司——主要是位于阿卜杜拉国王金融区的企业——已通知员工周日在家办公。全市学校本周已转为远程教学,尚未明确学生何时返校。

Traffic on King Fahd Road is lighter and some companies — mostly those based in the King Abdullah Financial District — told staff to work from home on Sunday. Schools in the city have moved to remote learning for the week, with no clear date yet on when students will return to class.

当我询问沙特人——朋友、亲属和线人——他们的近况时,大多数人回答:“感谢真主”。这句话既是对最大福祉的感恩,也是亲人去世时哀悼者反复念叨的口号。三月伊朗导弹首次袭击首都时,他们也用了同样的表达,但在此次袭击导致王哈立德国际机场超过十余人死亡、数百人受伤后,语气已不同。

When I ask Saudis — friends, relatives, and sources — how they are doing, most say: , thanks to God, the catchall for everything from the greatest blessings to the mantra mourners repeat when family members die. It’s the same expression they used in March when Iranian missiles first reached the capital, but the tone now is different after more than a dozen people were killed and hundreds wounded in attacks on King Khalid International Airport.

恐惧正在蔓延。社交媒体和WhatsApp群聊充斥着对哈姆德·卡尔塔米机长(Saudia航空机长)——周四遇难者——以及周六遇难者的悼词,后者包括来自孟加拉国、埃及和苏丹等国的八名外籍居民。人们纷纷发布信息并排队向血库捐血。王储本人上周也参与了年度献血活动,其形象被用于号召急需的捐献。尤其是机长的死亡,已成为许多沙特人的象征:战争现在有了一个烈士,拥有与他们相似的姓名和面孔。

Fear is breaking through. Social media and WhatsApp group chats have been filled with eulogies for Captain Hamoud Alkalthami, the Saudia Airlines pilot killed on Thursday, and for Saturday’s dead — eight of them foreign residents from countries including Bangladesh, Egypt, and Sudan. People are posting about and queuing to donate to blood banks. The crown prince himself did so last week, part of an annual campaign, and that image was used to spur urgently needed donations. The captain’s death in particular has become a symbol for many Saudis: The war now has a martyr, with a name and face that looks like theirs.

曼娜尔的看法是,沙特人普遍信任自己的政府。当他们披上国旗,或在袭击事件后发表声援声明时(至少那些使用真实姓名的人),这些行为是发自内心的,也反映了人们在私下里的真实想法。

Manal’s view Saudis broadly trust their government. When they wrap themselves in the flag, or share statements of solidarity after attacks (at least for those who use their real names), it’s genuine and reflects how people speak in private.

但情况已经发生了变化。有些人开始谈论离开沙特,而几个月前,这会被视为一种背叛。大多数人仍然充满自信,认为沙特王国已经历过更糟糕的时期。但有一点几乎所有人都一致认同:他们希望这场动荡尽快结束,恢复正常生活。

But there has been a shift. Some are talking about leaving, which a few months ago would have been seen as a betrayal. Most are still confident and say the kingdom has come through worse. What’s pretty universal is the desire for the disruption to be over and to get back to living.

与伊朗的冲突是明确的——自我们明白“敌人”意味着什么以来,就一直被警告要警惕伊斯兰共和国。但与胡塞武装的对抗则更为复杂。十多年以来,利雅得一直尝试结合军事打击和外交手段,而2022年联合国促成的停火协议维持了足够长的时间,让人们暂时不再关注这一问题。如今显而易见,这已是一场持久战,而我交谈过的几乎没有人能描述出“胜利”会是什么样子。

While the conflict with Iran was clear — we have been told to be wary of the Islamic Republic from the time we understood what an enemy was — the confrontation with the Houthis is more complex. Riyadh has tried a mix of strikes and diplomacy for more than a decade, and the UN-brokered truce in 2022 held long enough for people to stop thinking about the issue. It’s clear now that it’s a forever war, and few people I speak to can describe what winning would look like.

由于没有公开的民意调查,我们不可能准确了解沙特人的真实想法。本周末与25多人交谈后,我发现他们的观点存在分歧。一方希望彻底消灭胡塞武装,无论这意味着什么;另一方则担心战争对也门人民的影响——这些我们较贫困的邻国人民,不仅是沙特最大的外国社群,还与沙特人有着血缘和历史的联系。

Without public polls, it’s impossible to gauge exactly what the Saudis think. Speaking to more than 25 people this weekend showed a split. One camp wants the Houthis finished for good, whatever that may meanOthers worry about the toll on Yemenis, our poorer neighbors, who make up the kingdom’s largest foreign community and share ties of kinship and history with Saudis.

在过去六个月里,经历过1991年海湾战争的人用那段历史来解释自己为何并不担忧。当时伊拉克持续六周的导弹袭击,曾让一位沙特商界领袖“比起其他任何事,更害怕‘飞毛腿’导弹带来的不确定性”。35年后的今天,不确定性再次成为最大的恐惧。值得注意

Over the past six months, those who lived through the 1991 Gulf War used it to explain why they weren’t worried. Those six weeks of Iraqi strikes had one Saudi business leader “more frightened of the uncertainty of the Scud than anything else.”Uncertainty is again, 35 years later, the greatest fear. Notable