利雅得，沙特阿拉伯 轮子转得真快。一年前，穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储宣称自己领导了阿拉伯和穆斯林世界，并在二十国集团中日益增强影响力。如今他的王国正处于紧张状态，其生存能力正受到威胁。
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia How quickly the wheel turns. A year ago, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman claimed leadership of the Arab and Muslim worlds and growing clout in the Group of 20. Today his kingdom is hunkered down, its very viability under threat.
伊朗的代理人正从伊拉克和也门向关键基础设施和石油设施发射导弹。利雅得机场在10月10日导弹袭击后关闭了一周，此次袭击造成13人死亡、300多人受伤，并严重损毁了两个航站楼。随着袭击几乎每天都在发生，根据一位知情国际消息人士的说法，穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼正在吉达的防空洞之间来回转移。
Iran’s proxies are striking critical infrastructure and oil installations with missiles from Iraq and Yemen. Riyadh’s airport closed for a week after missiles on Oct. 10 killed 13, wounded more than 300 and badly damaged two terminals. With attacks now almost daily, MBS is being shuttled from bomb shelter to bomb shelter in Jeddah, according to a knowledgeable international source.
在机场遭袭击前几天，他在利雅得与麦加公约的伙伴国土耳其和巴基斯坦举行了紧急会议，讨论他们在王国防御方面的合作。但这些袭击并未引发类似丘吉尔般的号召，如“在海滩上作战”或“永不投降”。王储的同父异母兄弟、该国能源部长则坚定地宣称“沙特人的词汇中没有恐惧的位置”。但许多沙特人却感到恐惧。
Days before the airport strike, he had an emergency meeting in Riyadh with his Mecca Pact partners, Turkey and Pakistan, to discuss their cooperation in defending the kingdom. But the attacks produced no Churchillian calls to “fight on the beaches” or “never surrender.”The crown prince’s half-brother, the kingdom’s energy minister, did defiantly assert there is “no room for fear in the vocabulary of Saudis.”But many Saudis are fearful.
为了维持表面的正常，没有警报声警示即将到来的袭击。学校因无解释而关闭了一周。在我之前所有访问中随时可得、乐于吹嘘沙特进步的政府官员如今忽然销声匿迹。
In an effort to maintain normality, there are no sirens warning of incoming strikes. Schools are closed for a week with no explanation. Government ministers who on all my previous visits were readily available to boast of Saudi progress are suddenly invisible.
尽管如此，沙特公众所看到的事实上的领袖形象是：一位面无笑容的王储，袖子卷起，被动地献血。这张照片是对国家的鲜明隐喻：沙特阿拉伯的命脉是石油，而胡塞武装正试图切断通往这一传统命脉的通道，同时也在破坏王储发展旅游、矿产和数据中心等新收入来源的努力。
Still, what the Saudi public has seen of its de facto leader is a picture of an unsmiling crown prince with his sleeve rolled up, passively giving blood. The photo is a stark metaphor for the country: Saudi Arabia’s lifeblood is oil, and the Houthis are trying to drain access to that traditional lifeblood while also destroying the prince’s efforts to create new sources of revenue like tourism, minerals and data centers.
很少有人愿意前往持续遭受致命导弹袭击的国家旅游。更少的人愿意在这样的国家进行投资。根据财政部的预测，该王国的国内生产总值在2026年将下降3.6%，石油活动将下降约21.8%。政府估计，今年头五个月的旅游总量下降了5%至6%，随着袭击的扩大，随后几个月的下降速度几乎肯定会更快。因此，一个正试图摆脱石油依赖的王国现在面临失去其生存所必需的石油收入的风险。
Few want to visit a country under persistent deadly missile attacks. And even fewer want to invest in one. The kingdom’s gross domestic product is forecast to decline 3.6% in 2026, and oil activity will decline by about 21.8%, according to the Finance Ministry. Total tourism fell 5% to 6% during the first five months of this year, according to government estimates, and almost surely faster in the ensuing months as attacks have expanded. So a kingdom seeking to wean itself off oil now is at risk of losing the oil revenue essential for its survival.
更糟的是，特朗普总统让该王国独自面对胡塞武装。美国正在提供情报和如何使用情报的建议，但到目前为止，尚未表现出介入对抗胡塞武装的意愿。中国是沙特一直在争取以减少对美国的严重依赖的国家，目前正在同时援助伊朗和胡塞武装。被问及此事时，一名沙特官员表示，利雅得曾要求北京停止帮助德黑兰，但中国方面只是否认了这一说法。《华尔街日报》曾报道，胡塞武装正在使用从中国运来的零部件制造先进的中程导弹。
Worse, President Trump has left the kingdom alone to battle the Houthis. The U.S. is providing intelligence and advice on how to use it but so far shows no willingness to get involved against the Houthis. China, a nation the Saudis have been wooing to diversify their heavy dependence on the U.S., is aiding both Iran and the Houthis. Asked about this, one Saudi official said Riyadh had asked Beijing to stop helping Tehran but the Chinese simply deny doing so. The Journal has reported that the Houthis are building advanced medium-range missiles using parts shipped from China.
以色列曾提出帮助沙特阿拉伯击退胡塞武装，但王储拒绝了。任何关于沙特-以色列外交关系的讨论似乎已被搁置。几乎所有通往更大地区稳定的潜在途径如今看来都被堵住了。
Israel has offered to help Saudi Arabia repel the Houthis, but the crown prince has declined. Any talk of Saudi-Israeli diplomatic relations seems off the table. Nearly all potential avenues toward greater regional stability appear blocked.
“沙特面临着典型的中等国家问题，”一位西方官员表示。“他们必须找到一条在钢丝上行走的道路。他们可以拦截来自伊朗或胡塞武装的导弹，但只有在美国的帮助下才能做到。”一位沙特官员承认了这一点，并表示：“数十年来，以及未来，与美国的关系是我们最重要的双边关系。”得出美国正在抛弃沙特王国的结论还为时过早。
“Saudi has the classic middle-power problem,” a Western official says. “They have to find a way to walk a tightrope. They can intercept missiles from Iran or the Houthis, but only with U.S. help.”A Saudi official, acknowledging as much, says: “For decades now, and on into the future, relations with the U.S. is our most important bilateral relationship.”It is premature to conclude the U.S. is abandoning the kingdom.
美沙友谊已有80多年历史，始于1945年富兰克林·D·罗斯福在埃及海岸外的一艘船上会见阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹国王，期间充斥着反复的分歧和失望。因此，掌握一些历史知识对于把美沙紧张关系放在正确视角中至关重要。沙特首次遭遇重大失望是在1948年，当时哈里·S·杜鲁门总统承认以色列，尽管罗斯福曾承诺沙特国王，在未就如何解决阿拉伯各方对巴勒斯坦的竞争主张进行进一步讨论之前，美国不会采取任何行动。
The 80-plus years of U.S.-Saudi friendship, which began when Franklin D. Roosevelt met King Abdulaziz aboard a ship off Egypt in 1945, have been marked by repeated disagreements and disappointments. So a bit of historical knowledge is essential to put U.S.-Saudi tensions in perspective. The Saudis suffered their first big disappointment when President Harry S. Truman recognized Israel in 1948 despite FDR’s promise to the Saudi king of no U.S. action without further discussions on how to resolve competing Arab claims to Palestine.
1962年，随着早先的沙特-也门战争正在进行，约翰·F·肯尼迪总统忽视了当时的王储费萨尔的恳求，拒绝承认新成立的也门阿拉伯共和国——沙特王国一直在与之作战。1973年，沙特为抗议华盛顿在埃及和叙利亚袭击以色列时的支持，对美国实施了石油禁运。阿卜杜拉国王警告乔治·W·布什不要入侵伊拉克，但未能奏效。
In 1962, as an earlier Saudi-Yemen war was under way, President John F. Kennedy ignored pleas from then-Crown Prince Faisal not to recognize the newly formed Yemen Arab Republic, whose existence the kingdom continued to fight. The Saudis embargoed oil sales to the U.S. in 1973 to protest Washington’s support for Israel when it came under attack by Egypt and Syria. King Abdullah warned George W. Bush against invading Iraq, to no avail.
最近，穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼试图说服特朗普总统不要袭击伊朗，但同样被忽视。尽管由于美国在巴林、卡塔尔和沙特阿拉伯的基地受损，美国在海湾的军事存在几乎肯定会缩减，但美国不太可能抛弃沙特王国。允许伊朗——或中国——这样的敌对势力控制最大、最富裕的海湾阿拉伯国家，不符合美国的利益。
More recently, MBS sought to persuade Mr. Trump not to attack Iran and was similarly ignored. While the U.S. military presence in the Gulf almost surely will shrink as a result of the damage to U.S. bases in Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. isn’t likely to abandon the kingdom. Allowing a hostile power like Iran—or China—to control the largest and wealthiest Gulf Arab nation wouldn’t be in America’s interest.
自美国和以色列对伊朗的袭击自二月开始以来，沙特阿拉伯一直保持着其驻德黑兰大使。王储仍在寻求外交解决方案。然而，他无法在没有美国的情况下与德黑兰达成协议，因为特朗普正在阻断伊朗的石油出口，作为其勒死伊朗经济、改变德黑兰激进行为的一部分。
Saudi Arabia has maintained its ambassador in Tehran since the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran began in February. The crown prince continues to hope for a diplomatic solution. Yet he can’t conclude a deal with Tehran without the U.S., because Mr. Trump is blocking Iran’s oil exports as part of his effort to strangle the Iranian economy and change Tehran’s aggressive behavior.
虽然特朗普承诺在美国中期选举前不对伊朗发动攻击，但没有人知道他在11月3日之后会做什么。对伊朗及其石油设施的进一步袭击几乎可以肯定会引发伊朗对沙特石油设施的更多袭击。然而，这里有些人担心特朗普会宣布对伊朗取得胜利，理由是他对伊斯兰政权造成的损害，并让伊朗恢复对霍尔木兹海峡的控制，目前该海峡由美国海军巡逻。
While Mr. Trump pledges not to attack Iran before the U.S. midterms, no one has any idea what he will do after Nov. 3. Further attacks on Iran and its oil facilities almost guarantee more attacks by Iran on Saudi oil facilities. Yet some here fear that Mr. Trump will declare victory over Iran, citing the damage he has done to the Islamic regime, and let Iran resume control of the Strait of Hormuz, now patrolled by the U.S. Navy.
这将使伊朗能够通过霍尔木兹海峡对沙特石油出口实施勒索。胡塞武装可能通过红海到曼德海峡对沙特石油出口实施勒索。“没有开火是好的，但没有确定性是坏的，”一位官员说。
That would give Iran a stranglehold on Saudi oil exports through Hormuz. The Houthis could have a stranglehold on Saudi oil exports through the Red Sea to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. “No shooting is good, but no certainty is bad,” one official says.
尽管缺乏良好的选择，但为时尚早地否定穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼对王国的领导。他病重的父亲萨勒曼国王（90岁）随时可能去世，届时MBS将升任国王。虽然他显然在被他压制或监禁的宗教派和王室成员中有敌人，但他控制着王国的军队。与沙特军队合作的美国专家表示，军队内部不满的说法被夸大了。但不可否认的是沙特军队的明显弱点。对于一个防御预算超过伊朗或以色列的王国来说，未能成功应对来自零散胡塞恐怖分子的袭击是令人不安的。
Despite the lack of good options, it is premature to write off Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership of the kingdom. At any time his ailing father, King Salman, 90, could die, elevating MBS to king. While he certainly has enemies among the religious and royals he has suppressed or imprisoned, he controls the kingdom’s military. American experts who work with the Saudi military say stories of disgruntlement among the military are exaggerated. What isn’t is the visible weakness of the Saudi military. For a kingdom with a larger defense budget than Iran or Israel, the failure to respond successfully to attacks by ragtag Houthi terrorists is disturbing.
回顾这场战争时，沙特几乎肯定会被视为最大的失败者，而美国则排名第二。双方都被证明无法战胜远弱于己的对手。美国已经浪费了花费数十年建立起来的全球联盟。中国是明显的赢家。北京正在消耗美国的弹药供应，束缚其航母舰队，而这些航母需要数年时间才能准备好进行新的部署，同时也在耗尽美国人对另一场战争的耐心。台湾，小心。
When we look back on this war, almost certainly the Saudis will be seen as the big loser, with the U.S. coming second. Both have been shown unable to triumph over far lesser powers. The U.S. has squandered global alliances that took decades to build. The clear winner is China. Beijing is bleeding U.S. munition supplies, tying down its naval carriers, which will need years to be ready for new deployment, and exhausting the patience of Americans for another war. Taiwan, look out.
“在我81年的人生中，从未见过世界上有如此混乱的局面，”前沙特情报总监、前驻美国大使图尔基·阿尔-费萨尔王子说。“我们以前也经历过艰难时期，但总有努力去解决它们。如今，这些努力往往只会带来更糟的结果。”
“Never in my 81 years of life has the world seen anything as murky as today,” says Prince Turki Al-Faisal, a former head of Saudi intelligence and ambassador to the U.S. “We’ve had bad times before, but there was always an effort to resolve them. Now the efforts often bring about worse outcomes.”
休斯女士曾是《华尔街日报》的出版人，也是《渴望成为国王的人》的作者。
Ms. House is a former publisher of the Journal and author of “The Man Who Would Be King.”