胡塞武装表示他们的行动尚未结束。周三，这个得到伊朗支持的武装组织承诺将继续袭击沙特的机场和石油设施，并警告平民、工人以及“国际航运公司”立即撤离这些地区。同一天，利雅得上空传来了巨大的爆炸声；由沙特领导的联军宣称他们击落了一枚瞄准首都的弹道导弹。此次袭击发生在沙特阿美公司（Saudi Aramco）总部遭袭一天之后。沙特能源部称火灾仅限于局部范围，但有消息人士向路透社透露火势已蔓延至多个楼层，目前阿美公司的员工都在家中办公。
The Houthis say they are not finished. On Wednesday, the Iran-backed group promised to keep hitting Saudi airports and oil facilities and told civilians, workers and "international shipping companies" to leave them. The same day, loud booms were heard over Riyadh, and the Saudi-led coalition said it had shot down a ballistic missile aimed at the capital. The threat came a day after a strike on Saudi Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran. The energy ministry called it a limited fire, but sources told Reuters that the blaze spread across several floors. Aramco staff are now working from home.
许多朝圣者也遭到了袭击的影响。周六利雅得机场爆炸事件的视频显示，许多朝圣者当时正穿着前往麦加的白色朝圣服装。沙特媒体报道称，一名领导朝圣者的孟加拉国伊玛目在爆炸中遇难。胡塞武装承诺不会攻击麦加和麦地那，但大清真寺内的民众表示，持续的电话警报让他们感到非常焦虑。
Pilgrims have been caught up in the attacks too. Footage of Saturday's blast at Riyadh airport showed many travelers in the white cloth ihram clothes worn on the journey to Mecca. Saudi media reported that a Bangladeshi imam leading a group of pilgrims was among the dead. The Houthis have promised to spare Mecca and Medina. Still, people at the Grand Mosque say the constant phone alerts make them anxious.
穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储改革沙特经济的计划，能否在战争的压力下依然得以实施呢？我们的分析将探讨沙特王国是如何走到这一步的，以及它目前面临的严峻挑战。此外，我们还将探讨：为什么在最具破坏性的袭击发生之前，沙特的导弹警报突然停止了；同时，我们还会关注伊朗针对航运业的新行动、也门医院不堪重负的现状，以及那些在沙漠中举行的“类似达沃斯论坛”的国际会议。
Can Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's plan to remake the economy survive a war on his doorstep? Our analysis looks at how the kingdom got here, and the tough questions it now faces. Plus: why Saudi Arabia's missile alerts went quiet before the deadliest strike. And in our news briefing: Iran's new campaign against shipping, Yemen's overwhelmed hospitals and "Davos in the desert" going hybrid.
在过去一周里，与伊朗结盟的也门胡塞武装将战争带到了沙特阿拉伯的心脏地带，他们多次袭击了利雅得的国际机场，并在周二晚间袭击了沙特阿美的总部——这家全球最大的石油和天然气公司，也是沙特经济的支柱。周六的机场袭击导致至少13人死亡、300多人受伤，这是沙特十多年来遭遇的最致命的袭击事件。
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have brought the war to the heart of Saudi Arabia in the past week, repeatedly striking Riyadh's international airport and, on Tuesday night, hitting the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil and gas company and the backbone of the Saudi economy. Saturday's strike on the airport killed at least 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack in the kingdom in more than a decade.
这一连串的袭击正在考验穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王储的决心：他能否在避免卷入地区战争的同时，成功改革沙特的经济结构。
The barrage is testing Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's bet that he can overhaul the kingdom's economy while staying out of the region's wars.
这场危机并非突然爆发，其根源部分在于也门尚未结束的战争、美国所提供的安全保障（但这一保障屡次未能发挥预期作用），以及沙特王储正在重新制定的经济计划。
But the crisis did not come out of nowhere. It grew, in part, from an unfinished war in Yemen, a US security umbrella that keeps failing to open and an economic plan that the crown prince was already redrawing.
沙特王储提出的“2030愿景”计划寄希望于那些耗资巨大、具有前瞻性的超级项目，旨在让沙特经济摆脱对石油的依赖。然而到了2025年，由于沙特调整了经济战略，许多此类项目都被无限期地搁置了。
The crown prince's Vision 2030 made big bets on costly, futuristic giga-projects meant to wean the kingdom's economy off oil. But by 2025, many of those projects were indefinitely on hold as the kingdom reworked its economic strategy.
2020年2月，美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争时，利雅得最初似乎能够避免受到最严重的冲击。德黑兰发射的导弹和无人机确实袭击了部分沙特目标，但受影响最严重的却是阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林和科威特。
When the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in February, Riyadh initially appeared likely to escape the worst of it. Tehran's missiles and drones struck some Saudi targets, but the heaviest damage was in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.
由于霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，沙特阿美公司（Aramco）被迫将原油通过红海运输，其东西向输油管道的日输送能力被提升至700万桶。该公司报告称第一季度利润增长了25%，这一成绩令海湾邻国中的其他石油生产商感到羡慕。
With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, Aramco ran its East-West pipeline at its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd) and shipped exports out through the Red Sea. The company reported a 25% jump in first-quarter profit, the envy of producers in neighbouring Gulf states.
沙特阿美的原油运输得以顺利进行，主要是因为其南部边境的敌人——胡塞武装——并未正式加入这场战争。沙特的油轮在红海港口装载原油后，能够顺利通过曼德海峡（Bab el-Mandeb）前往亚洲。
Aramco's oil kept flowing largely because the Houthis, Riyadh's foe on its southern border, did not formally join the war. The kingdom's tankers loaded at Red Sea ports and sailed unimpeded through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint to Asia.
然而7月初，胡塞武装与沙特领导的联军之间的停火协议破裂。胡塞武装宣布对沙特实施海上封锁，袭击了沙特的船只和东西向输油管道；更令人担忧的是，他们还占领了也门的红海沿岸地区以及曼德海峡。
But a truce between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition collapsed in early July. The group declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, attacked Saudi vessels and the East-West pipeline and, most alarmingly, seized Yemen's Red Sea coastline and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
在这种情况下，沙特王储至少两次致电美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，请求美国提供军事支持以击退胡塞武装。虽然沙特获得了情报和目标定位方面的协助，但并未得到空袭支持。这再次表明：沙特多年来依赖的美国安全保障已不再可靠。
The crown prince then called President Donald Trump at least twice, seeking US military support to push back the group. He got intelligence and targeting support, not air strikes, in another reminder that the US security umbrella the kingdom had relied on for decades was no longer a sure bet.
尽管如此，沙特支持的也门政府本月早些时候仍对胡塞武装发起了进攻，并取得了一些进展；与此同时，胡塞武装继续围攻也门的塔伊兹（Taiz）市。
Nevertheless, the Saudi-backed Yemeni government launched an offensive against the Houthis earlier this month that has made slow gains, while the Houthis besieged Taiz.
本周对机场和阿美公司总部的袭击随后发生。胡塞武装曾宣布这些地点为合法目标，并在周三表示，这些袭击是对沙特对也门的袭击的报复。
This week's strikes on the airport and Aramco's headquarters followed. The Houthis had declared such sites legitimate targets and, on Wednesday, called the attacks retaliation for Saudi strikes on Yemen.
事件发展仍然太快，难以判断利雅得是否能够坚持下去。在胡塞武装控制巴布-曼德布海峡的情况下，石油能否继续流向其亚洲客户？去年外国直接投资仅达到王储1000亿美元目标的三分之一，投资者何时会前来？一个依赖阿美股息的国家能否同时承担战争和经济改革的费用？特朗普是否会最终介入？他曾暗示华盛顿“可能”参与沙特的袭击。
Events are still moving too quickly to tell how, or whether, Riyadh can stay the course. Can oil keep flowing to its Asian customers while the Houthis control the Bab el-Mandeb? Will investors come when foreign direct investment last year reached only a third of the crown prince's $100 billion target? Can a state that relies on Aramco's dividends pay for a war and an economic overhaul at the same time? And will Trump, who has hinted that Washington "may" join Saudi strikes, finally step in?
在穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼试图提升国家旅游形象、外国国家发布旅行警告之际，胡塞武装袭击首都机场时，穆斯林朝圣者仍在降落和从利雅得起飞。该组织还曾袭击达曼、阿卜哈、纳季兰和贾赞等多个机场。这些袭击引发了人们对民用航空在武装冲突中成为目标的担忧。
As Mohammed bin Salman tries to build the country's tourism profile and foreign countries issue travel advisories, Muslim pilgrims were still landing and flying out of Riyadh when Houthis struck the capital's airport. The group has struck several other airports such as Dammam, Abha, Najran and Jazan. These attacks raised worries over civil aviation becoming a target in armed conflict.
“民用航空遭受如此持续且强度如此之大的袭击是前所未有的，”OPSGROUP的创始人马克·齐说道，该组织是一个提供航空安全咨询的会员制机构。
"This level of sustained intense attack on civil aviation is unprecedented," said Mark Zee, founder of OPSGROUP, a membership-based organization that provides aviation safety advice.
“我认为这要求我们重新审视我们对当前风险形势的看法，并非常谨慎地行事，”他说。
"I think this requires us to rethink how we view the current risk picture, and tread very carefully," he said.
航班追踪网站Flightradar24显示，周一飞机正在绕过该城市，尽管喷气式飞机仍在穿越沙特领空并降落在该国西海岸的主要枢纽吉达。航空分析公司Cirium表示，沙特所有机场的航班取消率达到46.4%。
Air traffic tracker Flightradar24 showed planes avoiding the city on Monday, though jets were crossing Saudi airspace and landing at top hub Jeddah on the country's west coast. Cancellations across all Saudi airports reached 46.4%, aviation analytics firm Cirium said.
即使胡塞武装的袭击持续升级，沙特阿拉伯的预警系统也陷入沉默。王国最后一次公开发布即将来临的袭击警报是在9月29日，就在利雅得哈立德国际机场遭袭击、造成至少13人死亡、300多人受伤的袭击发生前几天。
Saudi Arabia's early warning system went silent even as Houthi attacks mounted. The kingdom's last public alert of an incoming attack went out on September 29, days before strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport killed at least 13 people and wounded more than 300.
政府尚未解释原因。但两名官员告诉路透社，当一国盟友西方政府的官员询问时，沙特当局表示，警报过于扰民，许多市民投诉夜间被警报吵醒。
The government has not explained why. But when officials from an allied Western government asked, Saudi authorities said the alerts were too disruptive and that many citizens had complained of being woken by them at night, two officials told Reuters.
甚至连西方大使馆——它们会向员工发送内部警报——在周六那次最致命的袭击发生前也未收到任何预警。
Even Western embassies, which send staff their own internal alerts, got no warning before Saturday's strike, the deadliest.
这种沉默直到周一才被打破，当时民防部门为利雅得和南部城市发布了新的警报。前美国大使迈克尔·拉特尼表示，缺乏预警“制造了他们试图避免的那种紧张情绪”。
The silence ended on Monday when civil defense issued new alerts for Riyadh and southern cities. Former US ambassador Michael Ratney said the lack of warnings "creates the very nervousness they are trying to avoid."