迪拜——沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼以高调开局新年。他刚刚访问了白宫，并受到特朗普总统的热情接待。即使伊朗战争爆发后，沙特阿拉伯的处境仍相对有利。它可以通过一条绕过被封锁的霍尔木兹海峡的管道输出石油。但沙特与也门境内伊朗支持的胡塞武装的升级冲突，如今正对王国的安全以及王储雄心勃勃却已陷入困境的经济转型计划构成新挑战。
DUBAI—Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman started the year on a high note. He had just visited the White House where he was embraced by President Trump. Even after the war with Iran kicked off, Saudi Arabia looked relatively well positioned. It could export oil through a pipeline that bypassed the blocked Strait of Hormuz. But the Saudis’ escalating fight with Iran-backed Houthi militants in neighboring Yemen now poses new challenges to the kingdom’s security and the crown prince’s ambitious but already struggling plans to transform the country’s oil-dependent economy.
周六，至少一枚胡塞武装导弹击中沙特首都的国际机场，造成至少12人死亡，数百人受伤，其中许多人伤势严重。这是伊朗战争相关冲突中对美国或其海湾盟友造成的单次最致命袭击。知情官员透露，一名28岁的埃及空乘人员因臂部被炸断而失血过多身亡，她是多名肢体受损受害者之一。知情人士称，两个航站楼被击中，屋顶部分坍塌。
On Saturday, at least one Houthi missile slammed into the Saudi capital’s international airport, killing at least 12 people and injuring hundreds more, many seriously. It was the single deadliest attack on the U.S. or its Gulf allies in the conflicts related to the Iran war. A 28-year-old Egyptian flight attendant bled to death after her arm was blown off, one of several victims to lose limbs, officials briefed on the attack said. Two terminals were struck and their roofs partially collapsed, people familiar with the damage said.
Storyful验证的视频显示，机场疏散时，乘客拖着行李箱踩过地面上的血迹而行——Storyful与《华尔街日报》均属道琼斯公司所有。当局报告称，周日对已关闭的机场又发动了袭击，称有一枚炮弹击中4号航站楼引发火灾并造成人员受伤。就在今年夏天，沙特官员仍曾向记者吹风称，胡塞武装局势已处于可控状态。
Video verified by Storyful, which like The Wall Street Journal is owned by Dow Jones, showed passengers rolling suitcases past a trail of blood on the floor as the airport was evacuated. Authorities reported more attacks on the closed airport Sunday, saying a projectile caused a fire in Terminal 4 and led to injuries. As recently as this summer, Saudi officials briefed journalists that the Houthi situation was under control.
但武装分子的升级攻击，他们称这是对沙特针对他们的行动的报复，已袭击机场和能源设施——包括该国主要的东西向管道和炼油厂——显示出南部边境威胁日益加剧。冲突正危及沙特将旅游和旅行建设为经济支柱的努力，包括一个原定于本月末举行的旗舰国际投资会议，如今该会议前景日益渺茫。战争成本已经扩大了预算赤字，并威胁将经济推入收缩。
But the militants’ escalating attacks, which they say are retaliation for Saudi actions against them, have hit airports and energy facilities—including the kingdom’s main east-west pipeline and refineries—showing the growing threat along the southern border. The conflict is jeopardizing Saudi efforts to build travel and tourism into a pillar of the economy, including a marquee international investment conference scheduled for the end of the month that is now increasingly in doubt. The costs of the war have already widened the budget deficit and threaten to push the economy into contraction.
穆罕默德王子如何应对这一考验将产生远超王国本身的影响。沙特阿拉伯是全球科技行业和人工智能项目的主要资金来源。它也是向美国军方提供基地和越飞权的关键供应商。特朗普周末对记者表示，美国正在与胡塞武装保持沟通，但可能加入沙特对该武装组织的打击。“他们所做的非常糟糕，”总统周六晚上说。周日，胡塞武装军事发言人重申了该组织的警告，即沙特机场是其目标。
How Prince Mohammed handles this test will have consequences that stretch well beyond the kingdom. Saudi Arabia is a major source of funding for the global tech industry and artificial intelligence projects. It is also a crucial provider of basing and overflight rights to the U.S. military. Trump told reporters over the weekend that the U.S. was in communication with the Houthis but might join Saudi strikes on the militant group. “What they did was very bad,” the president said Saturday night. On Sunday, a Houthi military spokesman reiterated the group’s warning that Saudi airports are targets.
沙特官员表示，他们用于抵御进一步袭击的拦截弹药正在耗尽。对利雅得的加强袭击——该城距也门胡塞武装控制地区500英里或更远——已将沙特首都的部分地区变成战区，居民在爆炸声中寻求掩护。周四，被拦截的弹道导弹碎片击中了一所幼儿园和一个医疗诊所综合体。该市金融区的工人、部分国际学校的学生以及外交官被命令撤离或就地避险。
Saudi officials said they are running low on interceptors needed to fend off further strikes. Intensifying attacks on Riyadh, which is 500 or more miles from Houthi territory in Yemen, have transformed parts of the Saudi capital into a battle zone, with residents taking cover as explosions ring out across the city. Debris from an intercepted ballistic missile hit a kindergarten and a medical clinic complex Thursday. Workers in the city’s financial district, students at some international schools and diplomats were ordered to evacuate or take shelter.
这位41岁的王储正在设有防空洞的 heavily guarded 宫殿之间穿梭，并由一支官方熟悉其行动的人员所挑选的安保团队保护。他上次公开露面是在周二，当时他献血以支持全国性的献血活动。
The 41-year-old crown prince is shuttling between heavily guarded palaces equipped with bunkers and is guarded by a handpicked security team, officials familiar with his movements said. His last public appearance was Tuesday, when he gave blood to support a national donation drive.
沙特领导人几乎没有好的选择，波斯湾专家、莱斯大学贝克研究所研究员克里斯蒂安·科茨·乌尔利希森表示：“任何军事回应都可能卷入更深层的不对称冲突，而胡塞武装已经表明他们有能力造成重大且具有象征意义的损害。”沙特新闻官员未对置评请求作出回应。
The Saudi leader has few good options, said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Persian Gulf expert and fellow with Rice University’s Baker Institute. “Any military response risks getting drawn in deeper to an asymmetric conflict in which the Houthis have shown they have the ability to inflict significant and symbolic damage.”
过去十年里，穆罕默德王子投入巨额资金推动一系列工程要求极其复杂的项目，旨在展示王国的现代化进程，吸引投资和旅游。这些项目包括未来城市NEOM、利雅得的一座巨型立方体建筑，以及一个沙漠滑雪场。这些项目的总成本达到万亿美元级别，对于年预算约为3500亿美元的政府来说，这是极具激进性的。
Saudi press officials didn’t respond to a request for comment. Prince Mohammed has plowed funds over the past decade into a slate of projects with extraordinarily complex engineering requirements aimed at signaling the kingdom’s modernization and drawing investment and tourism. They include the futuristic city of Neom, an enormous cube-shaped building in Riyadh, and a desert ski resort.
与伊朗开战的成本和经济损失正使本已站不住脚的财政计算变得无法平衡。今年上半年外国投资下降，远落后于王储2030年的目标。不断上升的国防和基础设施成本威胁着将本应用于经济多元化推进的资金转移。即使王国努力成为人工智能中心也面临新风险，因为数据中心正成为攻击目标。
The total cost ran to the trillions of dollars, aggressive for a government with an annual budget of around $350 billion. The costs and economic damage of war with Iran are making that already implausible math impossible to balance. Foreign investment fell in the first two quarters of the year and is running well behind the crown prince’s 2030 target. Rising defense and infrastructure costs threaten to siphon away money needed for the economic diversification drive.
穆罕默德王子主导的许多宏大项目目前停滞或正在接受审查。1月，沙特阿拉伯放弃了举办2029年亚洲冬季运动会的计划。它仍需筹措资金以举办2030年世界博览会以及四年后的足球世界杯。
Even the kingdom’s push to become an AI hub now carries new risks, with data centers emerging as targets. Many of the enormous projects spearheaded by Prince Mohammed are stalled or under review. In January, Saudi Arabia gave up on plans to host the 2029 Asian Winter Games.
根据资本经济学公司的数据，该国非石油经济在第二季度规模小于第一季度。沙特财政部现在预测2026年GDP将下降3.6%。
It still has to find a way to fund the World Expo in 2030 and the soccer World Cup four years later. The non-oil side of the country’s economy was smaller in the second quarter than in the first, according to Capital Economics.
今年早些时候，沙特曾能够将石油穿越沙漠输送至红海，以摆脱伊朗对霍尔muz海峡的封锁。
The Saudi Finance Ministry now expects GDP to shrink by 3.6% in 2026.
它得益于这些销售和更高的价格。但7月，胡塞武装宣布对沙特阿拉伯实施海上封锁，使红海航运面临风险。9月，对东西方管道的袭击击中了该王国从霍尔muz海峡逃脱的主要通道。随后，武装分子将目标对准沙特航空业，对经济的另一支柱施加压力。胡塞武装至少四次袭击了利雅得的哈立德国王国际机场。王储在2015年让沙特阿拉伯卷入也门内战，支持该国国际社会公认的政府，以对抗胡塞武装。
The kingdom was able earlier in the year to pump oil across the desert to the Red Sea to escape Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz. It got a boost from those sales and higher prices. But in July, the Houthis announced a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, putting Red Sea shipping at risk. In September, an attack on the East-West pipeline struck at the kingdom’s main escape route from Hormuz. Then the militants took aim at Saudi aviation, putting pressure on another pillar of the economy. The Houthis have hit the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh at least four times.
沙特领导的干预包括毁灭性的空袭，这些空袭加剧了冲突并助长了胡塞武装对王国的行动，包括对油田设施和利雅得等城市的袭击。双方在2022年陷入僵局并达成停火。新一轮暴力爆发发生在穆罕默德王子试图控制与伊朗对峙之际。伊朗在战争初期的袭击凸显了对海湾地区能源设施和经济资产（如机场）的威胁。沙特阿拉伯也在努力用防空系统覆盖广袤的国土，熟悉王国 deliberations 的人士表示，他们正在调动防空兵力，试图保护宫殿和能源基础设施。
The crown prince got Saudi Arabia involved in Yemen’s civil war in 2015, backing the country’s internationally recognized government in a fight against the Houthis. The Saudi-led intervention included devastating airstrikes that inflamed the conflict and helped fuel the Houthis’ campaign against the kingdom, including attacks on oil facilities and cities such as Riyadh. The two sides fought to a stalemate and a ceasefire in 2022. The new outbreak of violence came as Prince Mohammed was working to contain the confrontation with Iran. Attacks by Tehran early in the war demonstrated the risk to energy facilities and economic assets such as airports across the Gulf.
尽管支持继续对伊朗施加经济压力，但王储告诉他的顾问，要保持与伊朗的外交渠道畅通，并明确王国的意图并非对抗性的，这些人士表示。胡塞武装从春季一直持续到夏季，言论变得更加好战。沙特情报显示，伊朗正积极施压胡塞武装参战，这些人士表示。但一些沙特官员也评估认为，胡塞武装已经承受了来自美国的相当大的军事打击。
Saudi Arabia was also struggling to cover the vast country with air defense and was shifting batteries around to try to protect palaces and energy infrastructure, people familiar with the kingdom’s deliberations said. While supportive of continued economic pressure on Iran, the crown prince was telling his advisers to keep the diplomatic channel open with Iran and make clear the kingdom’s intentions weren’t confrontational, the people said. The Houthis began sounding more bellicose through the spring and into the summer. Saudi intelligence showed Iran was actively pressing them to enter the war, the people said.
去年也发生了以色列的袭击，他们将根据自身利益做出决定，而不是伊朗的利益，他们表示。胡塞武装在八月通过发动进攻夺取红海入口处巴布曼德布海峡沿岸领土，明确表明了他们的意图。沙特阿拉伯王国担心局势升级的风险，在也门盟友试图抵御胡塞武装对战略港口城市莫卡的进攻时，没有提供空中支援。该城市陷落，沿海其他关键阵地也被攻占，这使得胡塞武装对沙特石油运输构成了威胁。
But some Saudi officials also assessed that the Houthis had already absorbed substantial military damage from U.S. and Israeli attacks last year and would make decisions in their own interests, not Iran’s, they said. The Houthis made their intentions clear in August by mounting an offensive to take territory along the coast of the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint at the mouth of the Red Sea. The kingdom, concerned about the risks of escalation, didn’t send air support as its Yemeni allies tried to fend off a Houthi assault on the strategic port city of Mokha. The city fell, as did other key positions along the coast, raising the Houthi threat to Saudi oil shipments.
尽管穆罕默德王子一直在努力与特朗普建立关系——包括承诺向美国投资约1万亿美元——但美国至今仍拒绝了王子要求军事援助以遏制胡塞武装推进的请求，尽管它已派出军事顾问。沙特王国一直在向其军事盟友巴基斯坦寻求帮助，并正在全球范围内寻找防空系统，这些人士表示。它还在寻求招募外国战斗人员来帮助其也门盟友，他们表示。
Despite Prince Mohammed’s efforts to build his relationship with Trump—including a pledge to invest around $1 trillion in the U.S.—the U.S. has so far resisted the crown prince’s requests for military help to roll back the Houthi advance, though it has sent military advisers. The kingdom has called for help from its military ally Pakistan and is scouring the globe for air defenses, the people said. It is also looking to recruit foreign fighters to help its Yemeni allies, they said.
与此同时，它也越来越多地在寻找是否存在通过外交途径解决冲突的空间，否则这场冲突看来很难被控制，他们表示。请将文章发送至Summer Said的邮箱summer.said@wsj.com和Georgi Kantchev的邮箱georgi.kantchev@wsj.com。
At the same time, it is also increasingly looking to see if there is room for a diplomatic solution to the conflict, which otherwise looks hard to contain, they said. Write to Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com and Georgi Kantchev at georgi.kantchev@wsj.com