
MAGA Inc. 正计划在选举的最后阶段削减开支,以努力在 11 月的选举中保住权力。
MAGA Inc. is planning to trim the map in a homestretch bid to cling to power in November.
这个与唐纳德·特朗普总统立场一致的超级政治行动委员会(super PAC)目前仍拥有数亿美元的资金,计划在选举日前的最后三周内与其他主要的共和党超级政治行动委员会协同行动。他们的策略包括:减少对那些获胜难度较大的众议院选区的投入,加大对其他选区的支持力度,并将重点放在关键的参议院席位上,以挽救共和党在参议院的多数席位。
The President Donald Trump-aligned super PAC, with several hundred million dollars still in the bank, is planning a series of major money moves coordinated with other leading GOP super PACs in the final three weeks before Election Day. The push includes cutting off spending to a group of less attainable House races, piling in money to shore up others and training its focus on key Senate seats to salvage Republicans’ Senate majority.
据三位了解 MAGA Inc. 策略的共和党官员透露(这些官员要求匿名以坦诚评估中期选举的情况),俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和爱荷华州的参议院选举对共和党维持参议院多数席位至关重要。其中一位官员表示,MAGA Inc. 以及另一个主要的共和党众议院超级政治行动委员会计划在本周内停止对密歇根州第 8 选区的资金投入;这一决定实际上承认了民主党众议员克里斯滕·麦克唐纳·里维特(Kristen McDonald Rivet)相对于共和党对手汤姆·史密斯(Tom Smith)的竞争优势。他们还计划在未来几天对其他一些共和党处于劣势的众议院选区采取类似的措施。
Ohio, Alaska and Iowa are the Senate races that Trump officials view as increasingly critical to keep their majority in the chamber, according to three GOP officials familiar with MAGA Inc.’s strategy, granted anonymity to candidly assess the midterms. One of the people said MAGA Inc. and a leading House GOP super PAC would pull spending out of Michigan’s 8th District by the middle of this week. The move effectively acknowledges Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet’s strength over GOP challenger Tom Smith. They have similar plans for a group of other House races in the coming days that are trending away from Republicans.
这位官员强调,这些调整只是“重新分配资金”,而非削减总体的预算计划。
The official stressed the tacking would amount to “re-allocating, not cutting” the total planned spend.
据该官员称,MAGA Inc. 及其附属机构仍在所有参议院的竞争席位上展开争夺,包括德克萨斯州;他们预计在未来几天内会在该州追加至少 500 万美元的资金,甚至可能更多。
MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are still competing in all of the Senate battlegrounds, including Texas, where they expected to add at least $5 million and potentially more in the coming days, according to the official.
对于参议院选举而言,一位资深共和党官员预测,只要共和党能在俄亥俄州、阿拉斯加州和艾奥瓦州这三个州中赢得两个,民主党便很难掌控参议院;而若能全数拿下这三个州,民主党就基本无胜算可言。不过,要实现这一目标,共和党不仅必须保住德克萨斯州及其他几个存在风险的红色州,还得成功从民主党手中夺下密歇根州等蓝色州。这位官员还表示,共和党众议员阿什利·欣森极有可能在艾奥瓦州的参议院选举中胜出。
For the Senate, winning two out of those three states of Ohio, Alaska and Iowa would make it “hard” for Democrats to take the Senate, one of the senior GOP officials projected, adding that a three-state sweep would decisively put it out of reach for Democrats. That, however, would require Republicans to win Texas and a handful of other at-risk red states, while also flipping Michigan or another blue state. The same senior Republican official said there’s confidence GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson “probably pulls through” in the Iowa Senate race.
然而,德克萨斯州至今仍是令共和党头疼不已的难题——这位官员指出,肯·帕克斯顿正是问题的症结所在。
Texas, however, remains a massive headache for Republicans — and the GOP official is pointing to Ken Paxton as the problem.
该资深共和党官员称,MAGA Inc.组织将竭尽全力协助候选人,并承诺会“倾尽全力”提供支持。事实上,该组织数月来一直作出此类承诺,只是距离选举还有三周时间,其动用的资金仍不到5亿美元募款总额的一半。
The senior Republican official said MAGA Inc. would do what it can to help candidates and vowed to “unload the tank” — a promise the group has been making for months even as it’s only spent more than half of the half-a-billion-dollar war chest with three weeks to go.
不过,成功开展竞选活动的重任正在发生转移。这位官员强调,最终“能否获胜取决于候选人自身,而非外部组织”,他们必须设法争取更多摇摆选民的支持。此外,他们还需尽可能动员共和党选民参与投票。
But the onus for standing up a winning campaign is shifting. Ultimately, the official said, “it's up to the candidates, not the outside groups” to “bring it home and have a reason to get a few more points of swing voters their way.”They also need to maximize their votes with Republicans, this person said.
“在接下来的一周到10天里,你会看到很多行动 — — 很多协调一致的行动 — — 这些行动都是围绕着为最后冲刺阶段精简地图展开的,”一位熟悉MAGA Inc.计划的资深共和党官员说。“这将遍及各地。这只是意味着我们将从我们认为时机尚未成熟的选区撤出,并进一步加大在我们认为时机已成熟的选区上的投入。”这将迫使众议院共和党的主要团体决定是否将自身资金转移,以接管MAGA Inc.原本负责的关键支出,因为他们正在努力捍卫一系列曾经稳固的红色众议院席位 — — 这些席位是特朗普在2024年以超过10个百分点的优势赢得的,但如今已面临风险。
“Over the next week to 10 days you will see a lot of moves — a lot of coordinated moves — that are around trimming the map for the home stretch,” the senior GOP official familiar with MAGA Inc.’s plans said. “It'll be all over the place. It'll just just be moving on from districts that we don't think it's the right time for, and piling in further on ones we think it is the right time for.”That would force top House GOP groups to decide whether to shift their own cash to take over key spending from MAGA Inc. as they work to defend a host of once-safely red House seats Trump won by more than 10 points in 2024 that are now at risk.
其中包括中西部、北卡罗来纳州、内华达州的几个关键选区,以及肯塔基州的一个席位 — — 特朗普在那里以15个百分点的优势获胜。
That includes key districts across the Midwest, North Carolina, Nevada, along with a seat in Kentucky, which Trump won by 15 points.
在俄亥俄州,特朗普周一将前往那里举行集会,而共和党人私下里已数月来对共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德感到担忧。这位前副州长被任命接替副总统JD·范斯在参议院的任期,但数月来,他在公开和私下民意调查中一直落后于前民主党参议员谢罗德·布朗。参议院共和党最高超级政治行动委员会“参议院领导基金”已在俄亥俄州投入了近1亿美元,大量外部团体也加入其中,使该州成为全国最昂贵的参议院竞选战场之一。
In Ohio, where Trump is traveling for a rally on Monday, Republicans have privately worried about GOP Sen. Jon Husted for months. The former lieutenant governor, who was appointed to serve out Vice President JD Vance’s Senate term, has been trailing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in public and private polling for months. The top Senate GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has unloaded close to $100 million in Ohio and a slew of outside groups have joined, making it one of the most expensive Senate contests in the country.
就在上周,赫斯特德在最近一次民意调查中首次以微弱优势领先布朗。“我们希望投入最大资金,”俄亥俄州共和党主席亚历克斯·特里安塔菲卢在接受采访时说。周五他在利马接待了范斯,总统抵达扬斯敦时他还将再次承担这一角色。“我们希望获得尽可能多的关注。总统要来,副总统也要来。别忘了,我是共和党主席——我希望本州能获得全部资源。我们非常欢迎这一点。”
Just in the last week, Husted notched his first narrow lead over Brown in one recent poll“We want a maximum spend,” Ohio GOP Chair Alex Triantafilou, who played host to Vance on Friday in Lima and will reprise that role as the president lands in Youngstown, said in an interview. “We want as much attention. I mean, the president's coming, the vice president. Look, I'm the chair of the Republican Party — I want full resources in this state. We welcome it very much.”
尽管得克萨斯州意外地成为共和党一个代价高昂的难题,但另一位熟悉“MAGA Inc.”思路的共和党操盘手表示,尽管俄亥俄州规模较小,但最终可能让各方的共和党人花费更多。
And while Texas has emerged as an unexpectedly expensive headache for Republicans, another GOP operative familiar with MAGA Inc.'s thinking suggested Ohio could end up costing Republicans more spending from all sides, despite its smaller size.
民主党人也看到了同一块最终战场的形成。根据最初向《政治》杂志透露的计划,民主党主要盟友政治行动委员会“参议院多数党政治行动委员会”正在爱荷华州投入250万美元、在俄亥俄州投入700万美元用于电视广告,其发言人称此举旨在“注入新资源,帮助缩小这些摇摆州的差距”。他们还将继续支持各州的激进数字竞选活动。就在参议院多数党政治行动委员会向堪萨斯州投入500万美元之后,其他资深共和党人正忙于试图遏制全国各共和党州选情恶化的趋势。
Democrats see the same final battlefield taking shape. Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic-aliied PAC, is injecting $2.5 million in Iowa and $7 million in Ohio for television ads, according to plans shared first with POLITICO, “injecting new resources to help close the gap in those battleground states,” a spokesperson said. They’ll also continue to back aggressive digital campaigns in each state. This comes on the heels of SMP dropping $5 million in Kansas Beyond Ohio, other senior Republicans are busy trying to staunch the bleeding in red states across the map.
共和党在参议院的几个主要势力集团已经停止了对北卡罗来纳州的资金支持;在该州,共和党人正在努力保住他们控制的参议院席位。他们还撤回了部分对乔治亚州的资金投入,但仍计划继续向该州投入数百万美元。
Top Senate GOP groups have already cut off spending in North Carolina, where Republicans are struggling to defend a GOP-held seat. They have also pulled some money back in Georgia but are still planning to unload millions more in the Peach State.
“参议院领导基金”(Senate Leadership Fund, SLF)预计在选举的最后几周内仍会在全国范围内继续进行资金投入。该组织计划向德克萨斯州投入更多资金,以帮助帕克斯顿(Paxton)这位共和党参议员争取连任——目前该州的选举形势对帕克斯顿非常不利。据两位了解这些计划的共和党人士透露,他们还会向堪萨斯州提供资金,以支持参议员罗杰·马歇尔(Roger Marshall)的竞选活动;马歇尔与民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿(Adam Hamilton)之间的激烈竞争让共和党高层感到意外。
Senate Leadership Fund expects to keep spending broadly across the map in the final weeks. The group plans to pour even more money into Texas as a potential lifeline to Paxton, hitting a total of nearly $200 million. They’re also dropping dough in Kansas to defend Sen. Roger Marshall, whose tough race against Democrat Adam Hamilton blindsided top Republicans in the final weeks, along with a crop of other endangered GOP incumbents, according to two Republicans with direct knowledge of the plans.
此外,“参议院领导基金”预计还会继续向密歇根州的参议院选举投入资金,因为共和党人认为这是他们扭转局势的关键机会。
And, SLF is expected to keep unloading money into the Michigan Senate race, which Senate Republicans view as their top flip opportunity.
这位熟悉“MAGA集团”(MAGA Inc.)战略的共和党高级官员为该组织的资金分配决策进行了辩护。尽管一些共和党人要求该组织尽快动用其超过4亿美元的储备资金,但这位官员仍坚持自己的立场。根据AdImpact的数据,“MAGA集团”及其附属机构在本轮选举中已投入了超过2亿美元,其中包括未来广告宣传的预算。
The senior GOP official familiar with MAGA Inc.’s strategy defended the group’s spending decisions, despite waves of criticism from some Republicans who wanted it to unleash all its $400-million-plus war chest, and sooner. So far, MAGA Inc. and its affiliates have spent just over $200 million this cycle, including future ad reservations, according to data from AdImpact.
这位官员指出:“上个月‘MAGA集团’及其附属机构投入的近1亿美元资金,在共和党处境日益艰难的情况下,帮助相关候选人避免了进一步的选举失利。”
The cash the wider MAGA Inc. operation deployed last month, which was close to $100 million, shielded candidates from further losses as the environment worsened for Republicans, the official argued.
“资金在起作用,”这位官员说。“9月形势急剧恶化时,资金阻止了所有人‘阵亡’。资金守住了防线。”
“The money's working,” the official said. “The money stopped everybody from getting killed in September when the environment rapidly deteriorated further. The money held the line.”
接受9月支出资助的竞选团队得以“维持运转”,另一位官员说。“如今有更多候选人处于仍能赢得选举的位置,要不是那笔钱,他们早就不行了。”不过,许多共和党候选人私下认为,是特朗普低迷的支持率,以及他在伊朗持续冲突、关税和居高不下的燃油价格上的决定,引发了选民反弹。
The campaigns that received the September spending were able to “stay afloat,” one of the other officials said. “There are more candidates in a position that they can still win their race today that wouldn't have been had that not happened.”Many of those GOP candidates, however, privately argue it was Trump’s poor approval rating and his decisions around the ongoing war with Iran, tariffs and sky-high fuel prices that are sparking voter backlash.
就是在那次9月恐慌期间,共和党官员开始越来越担心不利选情版图的扩大。
It was during that September panic that GOP officials became increasingly worried about the growing map.
据两位直接知情的特朗普官员透露,一度特朗普团队官员认为,他们可能需要开始干预,甚至助选参议员阿什利·穆迪,因为在阳光之州警告信号四起,尽管该州是深红州。
At one point, Trump officials believed they may need to start intervening to boost even Sen. Ashley Moody in ruby-red Florida as warning signs shot up across the Sunshine State, according to two Trump officials with direct knowledge of the matter.
但穆迪最近的内部民调出现转机,缓解了许多此类担忧,促使特朗普官员维持总统访问该州的计划——不过更多是为了助选正在竞选州长的众议员拜伦·唐纳兹,以及共和党担忧的几个关键众议院选区竞选,知情人士透露。
But recent internal polling for Moody has turned a corner, alleviating many of those concerns and prompting Trump officials to stand by plans for the president to visit the state — but more as a way to boost Rep. Byron Donalds, who is running for governor, and several key House races that Republicans are worried about, according to the people.