
他们已看得足够了。美国银行的看空分析师对 Salesforce 来了个大转弯 —— 跳到了看多阵营,而吉姆·克拉默面对人工智能威胁始终坚守该阵营。该行将 Salesforce 评级由“卖出”双重上调至“买入”,推动这只软件股在周一盘中上涨约 1.5%。
They've seen enough. Bearish analysts at Bank of America did an about-face on Salesforce — jumping over to the believers camp, where Jim Cramer has been all along in the face of artificial intelligence threats. The firm double upgraded Salesforce to buy from sell, sending shares of the software stock up roughly 1.5% in Monday's session.
分析师承认,他们此前高估了 AI 颠覆风险对 Salesforce 这类老牌公司的冲击,后者的应用程序多年来一直帮助营销人员、客服代表和销售人员完成工作。相反,美银分析师表示,他们逐渐相信这家企业软件巨头拥有可信的 AI 战略,并能利用该技术推动其平台上的更多支出。他们的新目标价为每股 285 美元,上调自 160 美元。
Analysts acknowledged they previously overstated the AI disruption risks for an established company like Salesforce, whose applications have helped marketers, customer service agents, and salespeople do their jobs for many years. Instead, BofA analysts said they've grown to believe the enterprise software giant has a credible AI strategy and can use the technology to drive more spending on its platform. Their new price target is $285 a share, up from $160.
“Salesforce 并没有崩塌,那是个错误的判断,”吉姆在周一的《早盘会议》节目中表示。美国银行新近的乐观情绪是另一个信号,表明“SaaS 末日”已结束,至少对 Salesforce 而言如此。
"Salesforce was not falling apart, and it was the wrong call," Jim said on Monday's Morning Meeting . Bank of America's newfound optimism is another signal that the "SaaSpocalypse" is over , at least for Salesforce.
年内大半时间里,Salesforce 股价因担忧 AI 会颠覆大多数软件即服务(SaaS)公司采用的按席位计费商业模式而遭重创。市场还担心 AI 会让客户自行开发内部应用以取代 Salesforce 工具。
For a large part of the year, Salesforce's stock was crushed by fears that AI would upend the seat-based business model embraced by most software-as-a-service companies. There were also concerns that AI would empower clients to build in-house applications that would replace Salesforce tools.
但在 8 月下旬,Salesforce 交出了一份亮眼的季报,还与 Anthropic 等公司达成合作,确保自己在 AI 牌桌上占有一席之地。股价已从 6 月下旬约 150 美元的 52 周收盘低点反弹逾 50%。8 月财报为股价初现的反弹注入强心剂。
But, in late August, Salesforce reported a great quarter and it has also struck partnerships with the likes of Anthropic to ensure it keeps a seat at the AI table. Shares are up more than 50% from their 52-week closing low of roughly $150 in late June. The August earnings report turbocharged the stock's emerging rebound.
诚然,自 9 月 3 日收于约 264 美元以来,股价已失去一些动能,今年以来仍下跌约 12%。CRM 年初至今走势图 Salesforce 的年内股价表现。
To be sure, shares have lost some momentum since closing at roughly $264 on Sept. 3 and remain down about 12% year to date. CRM YTD mountain Salesforce's year-to-date stock performance.
在今年的动荡行情中,吉姆始终坚持认为 Salesforce 的业务远比华尔街预期的更具韧性。
Throughout the turbulence this year, Jim maintained that Salesforce's business was far more resilient than Wall Street was assuming.
这就是为什么我们没有抛售该股票,尽管忍受如此陡峭的回撤令人沮丧。他的论点核心在于,Salesforce的软件深度嵌入客户的运营之中,因此很难被用AI构建的应用程序取代。周一,Jim表示,Salesforce是“一个非常复杂的系统”,而非“某种依靠感觉编码的东西”。Bank of America也逐渐认同这一观点,这部分得益于与首席信息官(CIOs)的交流——他们负责公司的IT系统和战略。
That is why we didn't bail on the stock, as frustrating as it was to endure such a steep drawdown. The crux of his argument was that Salesforce's software is deeply embedded in its customers' operations, making it difficult to replace with applications built using AI. Salesforce is "a very complex system" and not "something that's vibe coded," Jim said Monday. Bank of America has come around to that view, thanks in part to conversations with chief information officers (CIOs) — the people in charge of companies' IT systems and strategy.
分析师写道:“与CIOs及其他市场参与者的对话表明,大型企业(相较于中小企业)不太可能替换承载其业务逻辑、数据、工作流程和合规框架的平台。”他们还使用了SMBs的缩写,指代小型和中型企业。“如果有什么影响的话,AI应该会加深对这些平台的依赖。”Bank of America还认为,Salesforce拥有正确的方法,以在企业AI使用日益增长的背景下保持相关性并实现盈利。
"Conversations with CIOs and other market participants suggest that large enterprises (more than SMBs) are unlikely to replace platforms that house their business logic, data, workflows and compliance frameworks," analysts wrote, using a shorthand for small- and medium-sized businesses. "If anything, AI should deepen dependence on these platforms." Bank of America also argued that Salesforce has the right approach to staying relevant — and making money — as AI usage grows across companies.
分析师写道:“我们认为,Salesforce提供了企业采用AI最全面的方法之一。”该战略的一个重要部分是认识到员工不应被迫登录Salesforce应用才能访问其中存储的有价值数据。随着白领员工在Anthropic的Claude等聊天机器人上花费更多时间,Salesforce决定顺势而为,而非逆流而行。Salesforce拥抱这一新世界的决定在八月下旬得到了体现,当时公司宣布与Anthropic建立“Claudeforce”合作伙伴关系。
"We believe Salesforce offers one of the most comprehensive approaches to enterprise AI adoption," analysts wrote. A big part of this strategy is recognizing that employees shouldn't have toto a Salesforce application in order to access the valuable data stored inside it. With white-collar workers spending more of their time in chatbots like Anthropic's Claude, Salesforce has decided to swim with that current, rather than fight against it. Salesforce's decision to lean into this new world was on display in late August, when the company unveiled its "Claudeforce" partnership with Anthropic.
该宣布恰逢Salesforce公布2027财年第二季度超出预期的业绩,并发布当前季度的指引,以支持其致力于在年底前重新加速增长的承诺。
That announcement coincided with Salesforce reporting better-than-expected fiscal 2027 second-quarter results and issuing guidance for its current quarter that supported its commitment to reaccelerate growth into the end of the year.
好消息接连不断,表明“Saaspocalypse”叙事正在失去动力,我们因此将该股票的目标价上调至250美元。随后是9月份成功举办的Dreamforce。在Salesforce年度大会上,公司详细阐述了其拥抱传统应用界面重要性日益降低的世界的战略。虽然这引发了人们对Salesforce将如何长期变现其丰富数据库的疑问,但我们对所听到的内容感到满意。
The one-two punch of good news demonstrated that the "Saaspocalypse" narrative was losing steam, and we raised our price target on the stock to $250. This was followed by a successful Dreamforce in September . At Salesforce's annual conference, the company offered more detail on its strategy to embrace a world where the traditional application interface means less than before. While this raises about how Salesforce will monetize its rich data libraries over the long term, we liked what we heard.
周一的双重上调也表明,美国银行持同样看法。该公司仍需努力才能完全赢得华尔街的认可,近三分之一的分析师仍维持持有相当的评级。不过目前,我们很高兴看到至少一位持怀疑态度的人选择放弃。(吉姆·克莱默的慈善信托持有CRM长仓。)
Monday's double-upgrade shows that Bank of America did too. The company still has work to do to completely win Wall Street over, with nearly one-third of analysts maintaining hold-equivalent ratings on the stock. For now, though, we're happy to see at least one skeptic throw in the towel. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long CRM. )