“I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.” — Winston Churchill, Oct. 1, 1939 The party in power almost always loses in the midterms, unless something big happens in October. Three weeks out, President Donald Trump is facing bipartisan backlash over a plan to buy Russian diesel in a bid to bring down fuel prices.

Pulitzer Prize-winning presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin joined “Morning Joe” to look back at the October surprises that changed history — and whether another could upend next month’s elections. JL: What does it take to beat the midterm curse?

DKG: Nine out of 10 midterms in the 20th and 21st centuries went to the party out of power. People are frustrated. They’re irritated. So it takes something special.

Teddy Roosevelt pulled it off in 1902. There was a huge coal strike that had gone on for four months, and coal was the major form of fuel at the time. Hospitals and schools were closing, and Roosevelt brought the union leaders and coal barons together at the White House for the first time. He brokered a settlement right before the midterms, and Republicans gained House seats and kept the Senate.

JL: What about the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 and Bill Clinton’s impeachment battle in 1998?

DKG: This is the week the Cuban Missile Crisis started. It went on for 13 days and consumed the country. Before the midterms, JFK resolved the crisis — a triumph. Democrats held the Senate and lost just four House seats.

With Clinton, Republicans authorized an impeachment inquiry in October 1998. People didn’t like what had happened, but they didn’t want him impeached. The economy was great, inflation was low, there was a surplus, and they took it out on Gingrich. The hero of 1994 was forced to resign four years later.

Richard Haass: I’m sorry to tell you the Red Sox are not going to be this year’s October surprise — but do you see one politically? Is there anything Donald Trump could do to change the context of this election?

DKG: Obviously, he was trying to do something to lower energy costs with the diesel deal, but that doesn’t seem to be going too well. And it’s awfully late in the cycle. For an October surprise to work, people have to trust what’s happening.

Richard Haass: What’s the biggest October surprise that never happened?DKG: In 1942, the invasion of North Africa was supposed to take place in October, and FDR mockingly said to Eisenhower, “Please make it before the midterms.”But as it turned out, the invasion was postponed until November. It was extraordinarily successful. Had that happened beforehand, it could have changed the whole midterm.

Pablo Torre: Campaigns have long tried to win voters over with something just in time, like “a chicken in every pot.”Does that work?

DKG: History is full of such examples: Hoover’s “chicken in every pot” and “car in every backyard,” McKinley’s “full dinner pail,” Nixon’s pre-election Social Security checks. But voters see these short-term fixes for what they are. JL: Is there a historical parallel for how President Trump is approaching these midterms?

DKG: In 1918, Wilson went out and made the election about himself. He urged voters to elect a Democratic Congress as a vote of confidence in his leadership. Republicans, who had supported the war, figured he was saying they were unpatriotic, and they won both houses. Trump has made this election about himself, too, so I wonder how much that’s going to work. JL: What worries you most between now and Election Day?

DKG: You can imagine something happening, sadly, in terms of possible interference in the elections. My hope is that every secretary of state and every member of every election board realizes that the badge of honor will be on them if they protect their own elections in their own states. And a badge of shame if they don’t. As LBJ said, voting is the most important right, the one from which all our other rights flow.

CHARTS OF THE DAY Source: Politico poll of 2,001 U.S. adults conducted Oct 3 – 5, 2026. Margin of error: ±2.2 percentage points.

WHAT THEY SAID Richard Haass on Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize aspirations“He actually could do something for peace with Ukraine and Russia, if he would stop embracing Russia and penalizing Ukraine. But he refuses. And starting a war tends not to strengthen your resume if you want the Nobel Peace Prize.”

Tony Plohetski on conspiracy theories surrounding James Talarico’s absence“One Democratic strategist pointed out to me that James Talarico’s campaign has continued to have more energy from his sick bed than Ken Paxton’s campaign has had in months. So while they view it as unfortunate that this happened with Election Day so close, they don’t feel like it has ultimately injured them.”

Dr. Annie Andrews on how pediatrics prepared her for politics“I can think of no better job that prepares you to serve in the U.S. Senate than being a pediatrician who wakes up every day and goes to work at a children’s hospital, where you come face to face with the negative impacts of broken policies coming from Washington D.C. I spent 20 years caring for sick and injured children in South Carolina whose parents couldn’t afford inhalers or insulin, watching insurance companies stand between sick kids and the care they need.”