总统史学家多萝西·凯恩斯·古德温深入探讨了“十月惊喜”在中期选举中的历史。
Presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin delves into the history of "October surprises" in midterm elections.
这些“十月份的意外事件”对选举结果有着重大影响——它们既可能帮助在任总统的政党获胜，也可能对其造成不利影响。现在就让我们一起来深入了解这些历史事件吧！与我们对话的是曾获得普利策奖的总统历史学家多丽丝·凯恩斯·古德温（Doris Kearns Goodwin）。她是多本畅销书的作者，其中最著名的作品就是《动荡时期的领导力》（Leadership in Turbulent Times）。
EARLY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE ELECTION AND EITHER COULD HELP OR HURT THE OUTCOME FOR CANDIDATES. JOINING US NOW TO DIVE INTO THE HISTORY OF OCTOBER MIDTERM SURPRISES IS PULITZER PRIZE WINNING PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN. SHE'S THE AUTHOR OF MANY BEST SELLING BOOKS, INCLUDING LEADERSHIP IN TURBULENT TIMES. SO, DORIS, IT IS GREAT TO SEE YOU. I WANT TO START WITH THE OCTOBER MIDTERM SURPRISES IN RECENT HISTORY THAT HAVE ACTUALLY HELPED THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT'S PARTY. WHAT STANDS OUT TO YOU? >> WELL, I THINK THE MOST DRAMATIC ONE, OBVIOUSLY, WAS THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS IN 1962.
多丽丝，很高兴见到您！我想先从那些真正帮助了在任总统政党获胜的“十月份意外事件”说起。您认为其中最引人注目的事件是什么？
I MEAN, THINK ABOUT IT. THIS IS DECEMBER. THIS IS TODAY, THE VERY DAY, OCTOBER 14th, WHERE IT STARTED, WHEN THE INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS FIGURED OUT THAT THERE WERE MISSILES IN CUBA THAT WERE RUSSIAN AND POINTED AT US.
多丽丝回答道： “最戏剧性的事件当属1962年的古巴导弹危机。当时是12月，也就是10月14日——情报官员发现古巴部署了俄罗斯制造的导弹，并且这些导弹瞄准了美国。几天后，总统不得不向全国人民发表讲话，说明情况并宣布将实施隔离措施，同时警告可能会发生核战争。这一事件的影响显然超过了其他所有事件。对肯尼迪来说，这无疑是一个巨大的挑战：他在竞选期间所做的承诺并未得到国会的支持，经济状况依然低迷，民权运动也正处于低谷。然而，正是这场危机让他的政党在选举中获得了更多席位，取得了胜利。这种情况非常罕见——因为自1900年以来，十月份的选举中在任政党十有八九都会落败。”
AND THEN A FEW DAYS LATER, THE PRESIDENT HAD TO SPEAK TO THE NATION AND TELL THEM WHAT WAS HAPPENING AND SAY THAT THERE'S GOING TO BE A QUARANTINE AND TALK ABOUT THE WARNING OF A NUCLEAR EXCHANGE. NOW, THAT OBVIOUSLY ECLIPSES EVERYTHING ELSE. THAT WAS A PROBLEM FOR KENNEDY IN THAT MIDTERM ELECTION.
另一个典型的例子是克林顿在1998年的竞选。尽管莱温斯基丑闻仍在持续，但他仍然很受欢迎。然而共和党人决定将这一丑闻作为竞选的核心议题，由金里奇（Gingrich）主导了这场竞选活动，并在10月份正式启动了对克林顿的弹劾调查。虽然《星报》（The Star）的相关报道早在9月份就已发布，经济形势也不错，但民众依然感受到了经济困境。不过，最终克林顿的政党还是赢得了选举。
HIS PROMISES HADN'T REALLY BEEN KEPT IN THE CONGRESS. THE ECONOMY WAS STILL SLUGGISH. THERE WAS A CIVIL RIGHTS BACKLASH. AND NOT ONLY DID IT HAVE THE RALLY AROUND THE FLAG THING, BUT TWO WEEKS LATER IT IS SOLVED. AND THEN IT'S A TRIUMPH. AND SO THEY ACTUALLY GAINED SEATS IN THAT ELECTION. AND THAT'S UNUSUAL THAT THESE OCTOBER SURPRISES ARE VERY SPECIAL BECAUSE NINE OUT OF TEN ELECTIONS SINCE 1900 MIDTERMS, THEY LOSE. THEY LOSE. THE PARTY IN POWER LOSES. SO CLINTON'S ANOTHER INCREDIBLE EXAMPLE.
这些“十月份的意外事件”确实非常特殊——因为在1900年以来的十次中期选举中，执政党几乎每次都遭遇失败。
IN 1998, HE WAS STILL POPULAR, DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE LEWINSKY SCANDAL HAD GONE ON.
失业率很低，通货膨胀率也很低；这是有史以来第一次出现预算盈余的情况。你能想象吗？然而，人们并不喜欢他引发的那些丑闻；因此，他和他的团队（以及金里奇）的支持率都下降了，他最终不得不辞职。这位1994年的“英雄”就这样离开了政坛。同样的事情也在2002年发生在布什身上。9·11事件仍然是当时的核心议题；他对反恐战争的支持率高达73%，阿富汗战争也似乎进展顺利。后来，美国获得了对伊拉克战争的授权……这些就是那些“十月意外事件”带来的积极影响。
BUT THE REPUBLICANS DECIDED THAT THEY WOULD MAKE IT THE CENTERPIECE OF THE CAMPAIGN. GINGRICH DID, AND THEY HAD. THEY AUTHORIZED AN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY IN OCTOBER. THE STARR REPORT WAS IN SEPTEMBER, AND THE ECONOMY WAS GREAT, AND PEOPLE FELT THAT ECONOMY. THE UNEMPLOYMENT WAS LOW, INFLATION WAS LOW. AND FOR THE FIRST TIME YOU HAD A BUDGET SURPLUS. CAN YOU IMAGINE THAT? SO PEOPLE DIDN'T LIKE THE FACT THAT HE HAD MADE THE SCANDAL, THE CENTER AND GINGRICH LOST GROUND. THEY GAINED GROUND, AND HE HAD TO RESIGN. THE HERO OF 1994 THEN HAS TO RESIGN. AND THE SAME THING HAPPENS FOR BUSH IN 2002. 9/11 IS STILL THE CENTRAL ISSUE.
我想播放一段总统在社交媒体上反复发布的视频：他在视频中承诺，如果共和党获胜，他将给每位美国成年公民发放5000美元。他说：“如果共和党获胜，每位美国成年公民都将得到5000美元；如果民主党获胜，国家将会陷入经济萧条。”他认为，如果共和党获胜，美国将迎来前所未有的经济繁荣。历史上有没有类似的例子呢？
HIS APPROVAL RATING OF HIS WAR ON TERROR IS UP TO LIKE 73%. AND THE AFGHANISTAN THING SEEM TO HAVE GONE WELL. AND NOW THEY HAVE AN AUTHORIZATION FOR IRAQ. AND SO THAT'S WHAT EVERYBODY THINKS ABOUT. AND HE GAINS SEATS. SO THOSE ARE THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE IN THOSE OCTOBER SURPRISES HELPED. >> I WANT TO PLAY SOMETHING THAT THE PRESIDENT HAS REPEATEDLY POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA, VOWING TO GIVE EVERY ADULT U.S. CITIZEN $5,000 IF REPUBLICANS WIN IN APPARENTLY, WHAT HE SAID IS I'M GOING TO GIVE ALL ADULT CITIZENS IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 5000. IF THE DEMOCRATS WIN, YOU'LL HAVE AN ECONOMIC DEPRESSION. IF THE REPUBLICANS WIN, YOU'LL HAVE YOU'LL EACH HAVE 5000 IN YOUR POCKET. AN ECONOMIC SUCCESS FOR A COUNTRY LIKE WE HAVE NEVER, EVER SEEN BEFORE.
这让我想起了胡佛总统在1928年竞选时的承诺：他承诺每位美国公民都能得到一只鸡和一辆汽车。然而，当他于1930年连任时，股市崩盘，经济陷入衰退，民主党因此在大选中取得了压倒性胜利。这些承诺显然没有得到兑现……不过，考虑到我们现在正处于邮寄选票的时代，总统本人并不赞成提前投票的做法。那么，你觉得如今的“十月意外事件”还会像几十年前那样产生同样的影响吗？
ARE THERE HISTORICAL EXAMPLES THAT ARE ANALOGOUS TO THAT? >> WELL, WHAT IT REMINDS ME OF IS, IS PRESIDENT HOOVER IN 1928, WHEN HE WAS RUNNING FOR OFFICE, HE PROMISED A CHICKEN IN EVERY POT AND A CAR IN EVERY BACKYARD. SO OBVIOUSLY THEN WHEN HE GETS TO THE MIDTERMS IN 1930, THE STOCK MARKET HAS CRASHED, THE ECONOMY IS IN DOWNFALL, AND THE DEMOCRATS WERE ABLE TO USE THAT AS WHAT IS GOING ON THAT PROMISES WERE NOT KEPT. AND THE DEMOCRATS WIN LARGELY IN THAT MIDTERM ELECTION. SO A CHICKEN IN EVERY POT, SORT OF LIKE A $5,000 GIFT. >> I MEAN, GIVEN THAT WE LIVE IN THIS AGE OF MAIL-IN VOTING, THOUGH, THE PRESIDENT DOESN'T LIKE IT AND EARLY VOTING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. DO YOU THINK OCTOBER SURPRISES HAVE THE SAME KIND OF IMPACT NOW AS THEY DID DECADES AGO?
我认为可能性不大。事实上，我觉得相关的时间窗口已经越来越窄了。想象一下：就在今天，在格鲁吉亚，有前所未有的人数早早地去参加了投票。这意味着在事情发生之前，他们的观点就已经形成了。留给相关行动的时间已经不多了。当然，我唯一担心的是：选举可能会在十月或十一月遭到外部干扰。但我有一种感觉——那些各州的国务卿们，他们对自己过去成功举办的选举感到非常自豪，他们会认为现在正是他们捍卫选举公正性的关键时刻。
I THINK PROBABLY NOT. IN FACT, I THINK THE TIME PERIOD HAS JUST NARROWED DOWN. AND JUST IMAGINE, EVEN TODAY IN GEORGIA, EVIDENTLY UNPRECEDENTED NUMBER OF PEOPLE CAME TO EARLY VOTING ON THAT FIRST DAY. SO THEY'VE ALREADY GOT THEIR OWN OPINIONS BAKED IN BEFORE SOMETHING COULD HAPPEN. THERE'S NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR SOMETHING. I MEAN, MY ONLY FEAR, OF COURSE, IS OTHER PEOPLE HAVE IS THAT THE INTERFERENCE IN THE ELECTION MIGHT BE AN OCTOBER SURPRISE, A NOVEMBER SURPRISE. BUT SOMEHOW I JUST HAVE A FEELING THAT SECRETARIES OF STATE IN EACH ONE OF THOSE STATES THAT HAVE PRIDE IN HOW WELL THEIR ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN RUN IN THE PAST, THAT THEY WILL FEEL THIS IS THEIR MOMENT IN HISTORY TO PROTECT THE INTEGRITY OF THE VOTE.
我的老朋友林登·约翰逊曾经说过：“没有什么比投票权更重要的了；我们所有的其他权利都源于投票权。”因此，我们必须将这个问题视为一个超越党派分歧的问题，这是我们真正需要关注的核心。接下来，我们就该为下一次中期选举做准备了。
I MEAN, THAT'S WHAT MY OLD FRIEND LYNDON JOHNSON SAID, THAT NOTHING IS MORE VITAL THAN THE RIGHT TO VOTE. AND EVERY OTHER RIGHT WE HAVE FLOWS FROM THAT. SO WE'VE JUST GOT TO MAKE THAT AS NOT A PARTISAN ISSUE. IT'S THE ONLY THING THAT WE HAVE TO REALLY BE CONCERNED WITH.
多丽丝·凯恩斯·古德温：如果你不从事写作的话，我真希望你能成为我的节目嘉宾……
I THINK GOING FORWARD TO THIS NEXT MIDTERM ELECTION. >> DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN, IF YOU WEREN'T WRITING BOOKS I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ON MY PROGRAM EVERY